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Open Square Capital retweeted
Key points from preliminary draft framework for US-Iran negotiations obtained exclusively by Al Arabiya English:
🔴 Iran could transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to an agreed third country or reduce its enrichment level
🔴 The Strait of Hormuz could reopen to international maritime traffic within seven days of an initial understanding
🔴 China could potentially serve as a guarantor of the implementation and sustainability of any agreement
🔴 Direct US-Iran negotiations could be held in Doha instead of Istanbul
🔴 Iranian measures on the nuclear file and maritime security would be matched by clearly defined US measures to ease sanctions, blockades and economic restrictions
🔴 An independent verification mechanism would assess compliance before each subsequent phase of implementation
🔴 Neither side would be required to make substantial concessions without receiving corresponding, independently verifiable commitments
🔴 A dispute-resolution mechanism involving mediators and guarantor parties would address delays or violations to help prevent renewed military escalation
Open Square Capital retweeted
Three things I don't love about the current market set up:
1) Hyperscaler credit spreads have broken above their July (Leopold Liquidation) wides (chart below).
2) Index momentum has stalled and entered a consolidation.
3) Financials/Staples ratio falling apart.
Open Square Capital retweeted
WSJ:
The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said.
The communications through diplomatic and military channels are among a growing number of indications that the U.S. and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, risking a major escalation in hopes of degrading Tehran’s strength and pushing it toward negotiations.
The U.S. military is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel from Texas to beef up its missile defenses in the country, according to flight tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement. The U.S. has also moved troops off bases in the Middle East where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
Open Square Capital retweeted
Chinese crude oil imports are set to hit their higher level since pulling back through the Iran War right in time for the US Midterm elections.
Funny, that.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis announce they just struck Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline and multiple of its pumping stations, as well as 6 other Saudi targets, including Saudi Aramco oil facilities.
Open Square Capital retweeted
There’s no doubt that the market has been both abnormally patient about low inventory levels and comparatively numb to the geopolitical risk in oil $ through 2026
There’s nothing that necessarily stops us from suddenly wrenching back to how violently oil used to price this stuff
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: US military aircraft are being evacuated from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, per initial reports.
This is a major imminent strikes indicator.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: US military assets are being moved rapidly into place in preparation for an expected green light from Trump to resume attacks on Iran, per a US official to Drop Site.
"CENTCOM is putting all the pieces into place to renew major combat operations," the official said.
CENTCOM chief Adm. Bradley Cooper is among the US officials pushing for renewing the bombing campaign, the official adds.
Iran's internal intelligence assessment indicates a high likelihood that large-scale bombing begins before Tuesday's Israeli elections, a senior Iranian official tells Drop Site.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has now decided to lift the restriction on nuclear weapons and is trying to develop them again. He says based on this, he has now instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies to topple the Iranian regime.
"Mojtaba Khamenei decided to follow in his father's footsteps. He has taken the safety off, and Iran is once again trying to develop its weapons of death," Netanyahu said minutes ago.
"There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all, to topple the regime in Iran," he adds.
"We are ready to strike you with full force," Defence Minister Katz says.
Iranian lawmakers said on Sunday that Mojtaba Khamenei's position on nuclear weapons will differ from his late father's and that Iran must now acquire nuclear weapons.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: US oil prices rebound on reports stating that other reports claiming the US and Iran have reached a deal are false.
We now have reports on reports that are moving hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: The US has carried out strikes on Iran's Konarak Naval Base on the southeastern coast, wounding two Iranian soldiers, per Al Jazeera.
It is the first US strike on Iran in nearly 7 weeks.
Iran will likely retaliate tonight.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: Iranian lawmakers say Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's position on nuclear weapons will differ from his late father's and that Iran must now acquire nuclear weapons.
"The nuclear doctrine must change," Iranian MP Naderi says, adding that the discussion of nuclear deterrence has become more serious and has now reached the level of Friday prayer imams (top state clerics).
"Our response so far in terms of revenge has not been sufficient. A response will be sufficient when we achieve definitive deterrence, which will happen, we are in this process," he adds.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: The UK will deliver a speech to the British people asking them to be prepared for war and to make major sacrifices, per Army chief Roly Walker.
Every citizen will be asked to make sacrifices, Walker says.
The UK needs to "take the fight to the enemy," he says.
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: Trump is en route to Mar-A-Lago and has just landed at the West Palm Beach airport, his first visit since May 1.
He started the Iran war on February 28 at the same location.
It comes as an Iranian state media correspondent said "Trump's statements today point to war within the next 24 hours."
Open Square Capital retweeted
BREAKING: The US asked Iran for permission to strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site without retaliation, and Iran rejected the request, per IRIB state media correspondent Morteza Ghoroghi.
He said "Trump's statements today point to war within the next 24 hours," and that Iran's military forces are "in a state of complete readiness."
Open Square Capital retweeted
Brent > $109
Seeing as of yet **very unconfirmed** reports of thermal anomalies around Yanbu that folks are interpreting as evidence of either an attack on loading infra or the East-West Pipeline [again]
Stress the unconfirmed nature of said report; waiting for real news.
