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Visible onshore inventories have drawn by "only" 4mbpd since Iran/US war began, tho supply disrupted by ~8-10M bpd in SoH. Large delta, but likely there (i.e., not demand destruction given real-time indicators never dropped off). Combination of non-visible inventories drawing, product inventories drawing, & China (product/crude drawing, less SPR stuffing). Goldman confirming China piece bit-by-bit.
"Chinese gasoline/diesel stocks drew by 2.2/1.7mb throughout August, likely nudging Chinese
refiners to raise runs"
They almost certainly drew crude inventories as well beyond what's visible.
(Last chart from @zerohedge)
#oil This is Goldman's inventory chart. Left is 9/9 . . . right is 9/2. Big difference in a week.
International rigs are starting to to perk up as producers respond to higher oil prices. Not materially so, but definitely turning positive. Latest figures as of July, data from Baker Hughes.
Forget about SPR for a second, even if you just looked at US commercial crude stocks, seasonally you typically draw 15M barrels from here to mid-Sept. US commercial crude inventories will break "400M" market and head into the "300M" range thx to seasonality. War on? Spicy.
Some of the "new" oil market watchers will look at this chart and say "there's 5M more barrels!" . . . this is what tank bottoms look like folks, it doesn't go to -0-
An acute supply crunch resulting from the US-Iran war has left the UAE port of Fujairah, the world's fourth-largest bunkering port, depleted of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO).
Most major bunker suppliers in Fujairah have completely pulled out of the market, reporting zero availabilities for the rest of the first half of June. #oott argusmedia.com/en/news-and-i…
For the month of May, TSA passengers are down on average about 0.2%. Total commercial flights are down about 0.8%. So yes, there is some demand destruction at the leading edge of energy consumption, however slight. Info from Flightradar24 and TSA.
Assuming he TACOs, has refused to attack for wks=no appetite for conflict & wants an exit. IR deal will be bad, zero leverage diplomatically. He'll up PR game to spin it palatable, or distract w/Cuba. GCC will agree. If so, recovery starts, we still drain in June/July.
US producers starting to react as rig and frac counts blip up. We're close to flat YOY on frac spread counts.
An absolutely fantastic interview, Jeff Currie and Amrita Sen on the current energy market.
youtube.com/watch?v=BOT2rrm1…
