Provost The Queen's College, Oxford. Formerly, director IFS. Author Follow the Money - "gripping and horrifying, witty and brilliant" (The Times)
London, England
Joined March 2015
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My latest cartoon for tomorrow's @Telegraph
Buy a print of my cartoons at telegraph.co.uk/mattprints
Original artwork from chrisbeetles.com
Paul Johnson retweeted
This 260-year demographic timeline of Poland’s Jewish population reveals the devastating scale of the Holocaust. Source: buff.ly/MEHJWla
Mindblowing chart from OBR. In 2029 real household disposable income per person expected to be just 1% higher than in 2019. What an unbelievably awful decade. It used to grow by 2%+ every year, not 1% in 10 years.
That was a pretty small Budget in terms of fiscal scale, but there are 98 policy measures enumerated in the key table of costed policy decisions. Does anyone know if that's a record?
Want a giggle? Here's the "scorecard" costs for not increasing fuel duty. Not only will it go up by 5p in July it will rise with RPI then and every year forward.
If you believe that...
The point is these are the published spending plans! Not saying anything about the deficit, how it relates to other countries or anything else. Do you believe these plans?
Many people like @PJTheEconomist show the below chart, saying that the UK's deficit would be terrible if unspecified RDEL cuts ( 'Other') don't happen.
But that's misleading. Adding them to the deficit would mean the UK still has the lowest deficit in the G7 from 2029 (1/2)
John Healey got his can and gave it an almighty kick down the road
thetimes.com/article/27e6b41…
Here's the real story of this Budget, the can being kicked down the road. This Labour government is apparently planning spending cuts on most areas of public service spending of 2.6% per year between 2028-29 and 2031-32.
Pull the other one. It's got bells on.
Funnily enough I was thinking just the same thing... and how does this relate to the cut in Business Asset Disposal relief?
Now pretending petrol duty will rise in July. Was supposed to rise in September. Then January. Who really believes it'll ever happen?
This is the key chart. We target territorial emissions. Down 40% since 1990. Great.
But what actually matters for the climate is our consumption emissions. They take account of carbon "embedded" in imports. Down by only 25%. Much less impressive, much less to shout about.
Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions on a residence basis were an estimated 473 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2025.
This was 1.0% down from 2024, and 42.4% below 1990 levels.
Read more➡️
ons.gov.uk/economy/environme…
ALT Line chart showing UK greenhouse gas emissions (on a residence basis) have fallen by 42.4% since 1990.
I wrote about fiscal devolution in @thetimes yesterday. Also drew attention to the absolutely abysmal way in which this govt has treated much of local government over the last two years. Genuinely scandalous.
Mention fiscal devolution and you’ll be lucky to raise more than a yawn, but nothing else announced on Wednesday is likely to have greater significance thetimes.com/business/econom…
Paul Johnson retweeted
"We are looking at a potential revolution in our fiscal constitution. The decisions made at this week’s budget will affect millions of us. So why the almost complete lack of media focus?" says @PJTheEconomist. They'll be happy at @WestofEnglandCA. No hard questions, please!
Paul Johnson retweeted
VG by @PJTheEconomist.
For any of this devolution to work we must stop fretting about “postcode lottery”. Freedom to innovate is essential & that means some areas will do better than others. Key then is to spread successful innovations, not suppress them.
thetimes.com/business/econom…