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Prediction Markets Independent, community-curated knowledge base for prediction market platforms, terminals, tools, and infrastructure

Prediction Markets
Joined August 2023
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Our latest featured project: @sharexyz. Available on iOS and the web, Share brings Polymarket and Hyperliquid HIP-4 into one interface, helping traders compare markets, follow wallets and trade across venues. Explore Share by watching the video and check out the listing on PMWisdom
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BREAKING: An ongoing exploit on Polymarket.
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PM Wisdom retweeted
POLYMARKET USERS REPORT THAT FRONTEND MAY BE COMPROMISED, AND ASSETS ARE BEING WITHDRAWN WITHOUT PERMISSION: DISCORD
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Democrats are at about 68% to control the Senate after the midterms, per Polyguana. That's up 5 points this month, from about 62.5% on Oct 1. Over $6.1M has traded on it. Election Day is Nov 3. The odds stayed between roughly 62% and 69% all month, which is a steady lead.
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Breaking: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) partners with TradeXYZ to bring 24 hour perps on Hyperliqud
ICE just sidelined Polymarket in favor of trade xyz on Hyperliquid. Yes, Polymarket’s biggest investor, sitting right on their board, looked at Polymarket’s perps and decided to build 24h perps on a competing venue instead. Here is why institutional trust is collapsing behind the scenes: 👇 Look at what’s actually happening behind the curtain: -- Word is ICE is hedging their exposure because they don't trust Polymarket’s leadership actually to deliver on perps. When you look at the public data I’ve been reporting on- inflated volume, gamified farming, and structural rot- you can't blame them. -- First, they lost the Robinhood prediction markets partnership over trust issues. Now their own board member is routing perp partnerships to Hyperliquid. You don't even need to believe the rumors. Just look at the facts and watch where the deals are actually going. Where do you see institutional perp and prediction flow consolidating over the next 12 months?
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🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki Chironus @askchironus is a prediction-market research and practice workspace. It brings together cross-venue discovery, paper trading, and journaling for traders. 🧭
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🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki TrueHold @trueholdxyz is a read-only portfolio tracker that brings Polymarket and Kalshi positions into the same view as wallets, exchanges, and DeFi. It helps traders see holdings across accounts. 📈
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Our latest featured project: @sharexyz. Available on iOS and the web, Share brings Polymarket and Hyperliquid HIP-4 into one interface, helping traders compare markets, follow wallets and trade across venues. Explore Share by watching the video and check out the listing on PMWisdom
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PredictdotFun airdrops 7% of $PREDICT supply to the community ! It's great news but I have some reserve. So far they announced : - NO token utility - NO buybacks I'm sure they will eventually do but we need to know before TGE because their claim system forces users to make a choice. - If you claim now you receive only 35% of your allocation. - If you vest for 12 months you receive 100% So if the token has low value then better claim at launch and take the 65% haircut than hold a down only token for a year. For comparison, @HyperliquidX 's 1st airdrop distributed 31% of $HYPE total supply to users. Fully unlocked. No vesting clause. That's over 12x more allocation + $HYPE launched with actual utility and buybacks. So overall that's good news but let's wait and see before being too bullish.
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Bitcoin is only about 4% lower than a week ago, but the odds of it hitting $90K by Dec 31 went from 67% to 44% It needs about 11.5% from $80.7K with two months left Feels like the market overreacted to a slow week
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🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki LazyEdge @LazyEdgeSports is a sports prediction-market data terminal and API that compares model probabilities with live Kalshi and Polymarket prices. It provides a cross-venue view of sports markets. 📊
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Harry Kane won the Ballon d'Or last night. The 2027 market opened a few hours later and has him at 6%, 8th on the board, behind Raphinha, Bellingham, Olise and Doue. The reigning winner at 6% looks too low. Early days and a thin book though, only $100 traded on Kane so far.
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Did you know Polyguana lets you propose markets yourself? 🦎 • Deposit $KHYPE on Polyguana • Trade anytime with ZERO lockup • Earn $POLY yield (points) while your funds sit idle • When we hit 500k $KHYPE total → Polyguana becomes a proposer and feeds market revenue back into user rewards Stake $KHYPE, retain 100% trading flexibility. Become the whale. Hyperliquid. 👇👇👇
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🚨Breaking: Predict Fun users have been drained over $400,000 due to XSS vulnerability involving Apidog and Algolia
I think I've identified the Predict Fun Exploit The third party responsible for the hack is likely @ApidogHQ & @algolia Archived dev.predict.fun pages identify Apidog as the documentation platform, with Algolia powering its configured search. 1. predict fun accidentally left their website’s administrative "search index keys" open to the public on an API doc. 2. Using that key, hackers injected 36 fake, poisonous search results (ADT-N-0 to ADT-N-z). Because they mapped to every letter and number, typing any character triggered them. 3. When developers or users searched for anything on the docs site, the database instantly fetched the hacker's fake, infected data. 4. The website used a risky coding method (dangerouslySetInnerHTML) to load search results, blindly running the hacker's hidden script without checking it first. 5. Once the script ran, hackers could spy on the browser, hijack active sessions, and steal wallet keys or redirect crypto transactions.
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Polymarket's US exchange now trades about 3x the contract volume of its global one. In the week of Oct 19, it did $3.81B vs $1.22B, per DeFi Rate. Back in mid-August, the global venue was still ahead, and US weekly volume has grown from about $0.8B since then. Open interest tells a different story: $356M on the global side vs $88M in the US. One caveat: DeFi Rate counts every contract at $1 face value. By dollars actually paid over 30 days, the US lead is about 1.4x ($3.4B vs $2.4B), so the 3x is contract volume only.
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