Prediction Markets Independent, community-curated knowledge base for prediction market platforms, terminals, tools, and infrastructure
Prediction Markets
Joined August 2023
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- Following638
- Followers6.4K
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Our latest featured project: @sharexyz.
Available on iOS and the web, Share brings Polymarket and Hyperliquid HIP-4 into one interface, helping traders compare markets, follow wallets and trade across venues.
Explore Share by watching the video and check out the listing on PMWisdom
PM Wisdom retweeted
PredictdotFun airdrops 7% of $PREDICT supply to the community !
It's great news but I have some reserve.
So far they announced :
- NO token utility
- NO buybacks
I'm sure they will eventually do but we need to know before TGE because their claim system forces users to make a choice.
- If you claim now you receive only 35% of your allocation.
- If you vest for 12 months you receive 100%
So if the token has low value then better claim at launch and take the 65% haircut than hold a down only token for a year.
For comparison, @HyperliquidX 's 1st airdrop distributed 31% of $HYPE total supply to users.
Fully unlocked. No vesting clause.
That's over 12x more allocation + $HYPE launched with actual utility and buybacks.
So overall that's good news but let's wait and see before being too bullish.
PM Wisdom retweeted
Did you know Polyguana lets you propose markets yourself? 🦎
• Deposit $KHYPE on Polyguana
• Trade anytime with ZERO lockup
• Earn $POLY yield (points) while your funds sit idle
• When we hit 500k $KHYPE total → Polyguana becomes a proposer and feeds market revenue back into user rewards
Stake $KHYPE, retain 100% trading flexibility.
Become the whale.
Hyperliquid.
👇👇👇
PM Wisdom retweeted
We show who is on the other side of a Polymarket trade. Polyguana places it, from one balance across Polymarket, Hyperliquid and Limitless. Same team as PM Wisdom.
Just joined Polyguana to start earning $POLY.
Polyguana code: WSG6NZ nitter.cf/polyguana/status/21086…
No VC. No presale. No fees on top.
Just tokens. Just $Poly. Just community.
PolyPoints start today.
PM Wisdom retweeted
anyone can spot a whale bet. the hard part is knowing if that wallet ever wins. thats what we grade at 0xinsider
thanks for the feature @PredMarketWiki
#PredictionMarkets
Our newest PM Wisdom featured project: @0xinsiderdotcom.
Big bets are easy to spot. Knowing whether the wallet behind them is any good is harder.
0xInsider grades Polymarket wallets, tracks flow across Polymarket and Kalshi, and gives builders API, MCP and webhooks.
PM Wisdom retweeted
Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume.
No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
PM Wisdom retweeted
Where do you find the best prediction-market trading tools and build a stack that fits your style?
> Platforms
> Wallet trackers
> Trading terminals
> Scanners
> Analytics
> Execution tools
611 projects. 18 categories. One map
Stop hunting tools one X post at a time
Bookmark this. @PredMarketWiki
PM Wisdom retweeted
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and learn more at polyguana.net/info/smart-ord…
PM Wisdom retweeted
Polyguana is aware of the php2shell exploit, eMudhra (emSign) CA leak & Node.js CVE-2026-111497.
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
PM Wisdom retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth!
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
PM Wisdom retweeted
The House looks comfortable for Democrats. The Senate is a tighter call.
Markets put their chances at 92% and 65%. Winning every Senate race they’re favored to win gets them to 52 seats, just one above the majority they need.
Track the races:
polyguana.net/predictions/mi…
PM Wisdom retweeted
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head.
If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket?
Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema:
-- Polymarket is now far behind Kalshi, with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation.
-- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping
-- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token.
Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys.
If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call:
1) @AsiffHirji
- Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue.
- Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé.
- Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps.
2) Heath Tarbert.
- Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy).
- Best answer to the regulator problem.
- Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose.
3) Chris Concannon
- Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe.
- Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick.
- Catch: zero crypto
If it ever happened:
• Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot
• Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter
• Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe
Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
PM Wisdom retweeted
Republican. Democrat. Conservative. MAGA. Iguana. 🦎
Whoever you are, trade the Midterms with the absolute best UX, lowest fees, and full aggregation across @Polymarket, @Kalshi, @trylimitless , and @HyperliquidX HIP-4
Stop overpaying on spreads. Watch the demo 👇
PM Wisdom retweeted
JUST IN: Biotech startup reveals it has treated a human patient with AI-designed viruses for the first time, targeting an antibiotic-resistant E. coli infection.
