Cabinet indépendant de recherche économique et financière. Publications, conférences, activité de formation professionnelle en économie appliquée à l'entreprise
Paris
Joined October 2013
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PrimeView retweeted
While looking at that chart, I asked myself: "How long has Japan spent in recession since 1990?" 132 months... 32,3% of the 408 months between 1990 and 2024...
PrimeView retweeted
Chinese borrowers default in record numbers as economic crisis deepens
"A total of 8.54mn people, most of them between the ages of 18 and 59, are officially blacklisted by authorities after missing payments on everything [...]" ft.com/content/f144f763-873c… via @ft
PrimeView retweeted
The proportion of wages used to pay interest in the U.S. (excluding mortgages) has soared!
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On a YoY basis, the real GDI for the #US is flat in 2023 and even turned negative for Q3 (-0.16%). In 2008, the GDI became negative way before the GDP did.
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Manually creating a domino effect.
(Bloomberg) #China wants to force Chinese banks to provide (unsecured) loans to the battered down #realestate sector. Likely, this merely transfers issues from one sector to another.
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The ECB is considering reducing its bond purchases linked to the 1700 billion Covid stimulus earlier than planned, even though this mechanism is due to end at the end of 2024. ft.com/content/d7e98c98-51ef…
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#Bankrupcies (all chapters) in the US are rising again, after around 10 years of decrease then stagnation. Even if the total number is still small compared to pike.
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US business #bankruptcies are rising sharply in 2022 and 2023. Even is the real numbers are still low, the growth rate is quite important.
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Looks like it will be one of the most crowded trades to come. 61% of Fund Managers from BofA Fund Manager survey expect lower bond yields, most on record, despite 2nd highest ever saying fiscal policy too stimulative.
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US Capacity utilization at 80% when the industrial production is at 0% yoy is a situation never encountered before.
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The money supply in the #eurozone is decreasing (YoY). First time in 30 years. But after such anormal monetary policy and money injection, isn't it "ok"?
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Increase of the labor cost at the same time of a decrease in productivity per person in the #eurozone. 3 times over 4 it has been a sign of #recession during the last 20 years.
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#China went back into deflation territory in October thanks to the sharp decline in food prices. (CPI -0.2% vs. CPI Core +0.6%). PPI are also down -2.6% YoY.
PrimeView retweeted
Good morning,
Credit cards loans going to delinquency are rising in the #US.
Household credit stress continued to build in Q3, particularly for credit cards and auto loans, according to the latest NY Fed Household Debt and Credit report.
1⃣ Transition into serious delinquency (i.e. 90+ days) continued to rise for all loan types other than student loans & home equity loans. Credit card and auto loan transition rates have surpassed their pre-COVID level and are trending higher.
2⃣ The share of loan balances in serious delinquency remained below pre-COVID levels for all loan types but credit cards are rising most rapidly.
3⃣ The early transition rate for mortgage delinquencies (i.e. into 30-60 days late) has climbed back to roughly the pre-COVID level along with the transition rate into seriously delinquent.
4⃣ Credit card & auto loan stress has been concentrated in younger age groups, with the transition rate into serious delinquency of the 30-39-year-old cohort rising most rapidly and far surpassing the pre-COVID rate.
As unemployment trends higher, I expect credit stress to continue to spread as well. The pace of any further deterioration will be key to monitor.
newyorkfed.org/newsevents/ne…
PrimeView retweeted
Using FactSet estimates, it's 42.8% of the S&P500's companies that have Sales > estimates for the 408 companies that have published their results.
All is great in #equities because of renewed #FederalReserve 'hopium.'
But fundamentally, things look less upbeat, and it's starting to show up in the #earnings data. The chart below shows sales surprises are plummeting.
trueinsights.substack.com/p/…
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The median sales price of new house in the #US is going down on a yearly basis. -12.3% YoY in September, a level hardly seen in the past.
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Good morning,
China's manufacturing purchasing managers index entered in contraction zone (49.5 in October). Once again.
🇨🇳 #China’s Factory Activity Shrinks, Fueling Calls for More Support - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
