A certain sadness about the disparition of tutorials
rphl.dev/a-certain-sadness-a…
"Only reading AI explaining me how to implement things makes me sad."
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
This superb @RealAlpineMacro chart, titled "The French Disease," shows just how gigantic the gap is that AI has to close.
France is an aging, uncompetitive, highly indebted, and politically polarized nation, where government spending accounts for a whopping 58% of GDP.
Meanwhile, productivity growth, arguably the only painless way out of mounting government debt and persistent budget deficits, has collapsed to virtually zero.
This is another excellent illustration of France's vulnerability within the Eurozone and why expectations for AI are so high.
Can AI close the gap? Partly, surely. But the divergence between government spending and productivity growth has become so extreme that additional measures will almost certainly be needed to prevent a debt crisis. If not now, then later.
I think most investors recognize these risks. But recognizing them is one thing. Actually adjusting your portfolio is another.
That's exactly what we've done at Prestige Investment Partners: fundamentally rethinking the traditional stock-bond portfolio to address the risks of today's financial system.
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
BREAKING: There are now far more people trying to sell homes than buy them.
U.S. home sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6% in September, the widest gap since Redfin’s records began in 2013.
That’s up from about 58% the month before.
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
🇨🇳 JUST IN: China's housing market just erased two decades of gains. Most Chinese family wealth sits in property. What happens to the economy now?
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
@John_Hempton @ActuallyFinance @CliffordAsness @IrvingSwisher @NateGeraci @BullandBaird @cullenroche @Convertbond @realDonaldTrump @choffstein @Me @dopamine_uptake @BoringBiz_ @bennpeifert @Foulke_David @LoganMohtashami @Matt_Wiens @scuttleblurb @kylascan @QuietProsperity @JC_ParetsX @TheStalwart @FinTwitAnons @jclooce @RPSeawright @MikeDonnellyJr @Bonecondor @AdvisorMikeL @LizSimmie @MebFaber @RyanMGavin @Prashanth_Krish @andrew_reed @HighyieldHarry @AdamSinger @JSeyff @AlexPickard @ByrneHobart @syouth1 @HML_Compounder @ferventfinance @colby__donovan @stevehou @falsademanda @friedoystercult @wintermoat @Byte_Sized_Blog @ReformedTrader @SamRo
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
Nvidia earns a big profit whenever it sells a GPU. Whoever buys that chip, however, does not incur an immediate cost because the purchase is treated as capital spending. Thus, while aggregate cash flows do not change, reported earnings still rise. This has pushed up profits margins in the tech sector.
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
Japanese investors hold far more French bonds than benchmark weightings recommend, raising the threat of a new wave of selling bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
🛢️ 🇸🇦 🇪🇺 Aramco defers, cancels some European Sep crude: Sources - Argus
argusmedia.com/en/news-and-i…
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
LONDON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports if it doesn't restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4% of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders said.
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
🤯THIS IS ABSOLUTELY MIND-BLOWING:
Japan is projected to pay a record ¥16.59 trillion, or $108 billion, in debt interest in Fiscal Year 2027, double the level seen in Fiscal 2024.
This comes as the 10-year JGB yield surpassed 3% last week for the first time since September 1996.
A weakening Yen and rising inflation, unusual after years of stagnant prices, are adding pressure on the BOJ to hike faster, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling he expects a move as soon as next week.
At the same time, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's push for more stimulatory spending is fueling investor concern that Japan's fiscal plans pose a risk to financial stability, both at home and abroad.
This has renewed scrutiny of the Yen carry trade, as Japanese lending to overseas borrowers has surpassed its 2024 peak, suggesting that cross-border Japanese capital flows remain elevated.
“Short Yen” also ranks among the world’s 3 most popular trades in Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey.
Japan's debt burden is colliding with higher rates, rising inflation, and a massive global carry trade. The consequences could extend far beyond Japan.
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
Maintenance costs for AI-generated code have jumped 300% in 18 months, code duplication is up 48% and refactoring has dropped 60%. The result could be a massive technical debt problem hiding inside companies that initially saw AI coding as a productivity win: Checkmarx
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
We've updated the Odin website's frontpage, to showcase the people who ship.
odin-lang.org/
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
Leverage in hedge funds and and haircuts on Gov Bonds
BIS Bulletin 117The paper, titled "Unpacking repo haircuts and their implications for leverage"
Sharp divide between the largest funds and smaller market players:
The 70/50 Rule: Around 70% of bilateral USD repos and 50% of bilateral EUR repos executed by hedge funds are offered with a zero haircut.
Dealer Relationships:
The top 10 largest hedge funds absorb the most compressed terms. Because they are core revenue-generators for prime broker desks, banks compete for their business by cutting haircuts to near zero, granting them disproportionately high leverage compared to smaller peers.
Trading Motives Matter:
The paper highlights that aggregate market data is misleading. When hedge funds engage in "collateral-driven" trades (seeking specific securities to short or arbitrage), the haircuts naturally collapse because the lender of the cash wants the security more than the security holder wants the cash.
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
Solid call. Between the brutal heat across Europe this summer and the wipeout of Black Sea grain corridors, EU corn and soymeal prints are already printing fresh ATHs.
Wheat is ripping higher alongside them, and key net importers like Egypt are already getting squeezed hard.
Rich sovereigns will bitch and moan but still pay up to secure supply; for the Global South, that’s not even an option.
Thing is, half the EM complex relies on raw commodity exports to keep the lights on. What’s the endgame here? A textbook doom loop and macro contagion.
Pretty sure we already watched this exact movie during the Arab Spring on what ag spikes do to EM stability... But hey no biggie—I'm sure Claude and ChatGPT will just 3D print calorie molecules out of thin air.
#corn #wheat #russia
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
“Bubble Income”
Most of the record income reported by hyperscalers is from revaluation gains on investments in AI.
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
🇨🇳 #China Banks Accept AI Compute to Back Startup Loans - China Securities Journal
➡ Chinese lenders are overhauling credit models to accept artificial intelligence compute traffic as collateral, swapping traditional property requirements for token usage.
➡ Lenders including Bank of China are rolling out compute token loans, extending as much as 30 million yuan ($4.5 million) over three years based on token output, consumption rates, and service contracts.
➡ The shift allows cash-strapped AI startups to access credit without holding tangible hard assets.
➡ Tsinghua University spinoff Beijing Gongji Technology secured its first loan from China Merchants.
➡ Bank under the model, while Guangzhou’s Haizhu district unveiled policies to expand token-based financing.
➡ “In the past, relationship managers asked what real estate or equipment a company could pledge,” an unnamed corporate banker told the paper. “Now they ask about monthly compute calls and token usage”.
*Link (Chinese): epaper.cs.com.cn/zgzqb/html/…
Raphaël Becanne retweeted
Meta sold 7 million pairs of Ray-Ban smart glasses in 2025 while quietly stripping US users of the right to opt out of voice-recording storage without notice. Intimate footage from private homes reviewed by outsourced contractors in Nairobi.
When confronted, Meta didn’t fix the pipeline, it cut ties with the contractor while the surveillance model stayed intact. This isn’t a breach. It’s META business model.
bbc.com/news/articles/c0q33n…
