ProfTalmadge

Spin is one thing, but it is worth noting that virtually everything Vance says about the JCPOA in this clip is wildly misleading or outright false: 1. "The Gulf Coast Coalition loves this deal." (The "Gulf Coast" is in the southern US along the Gulf of Mexico but he is presumably referring here to the Gulf Cooperation Council or GCC.) GCC states don't "love this deal" but support it to end the war that Trump started that led to thousands of attacks on their countries and shut off their exports. 2. "The Obama deal allowed enrichment, ours will not." The Obama deal allowed enrichment that was strictly limited in level, amount, location and types of centrifuges, and carefully monitored by the IAEA. The Trump MOU says nothing about enrichment except that Iran "agreed to discuss the issue...related to Iran's nuclear needs." 3. "The Obama deal allowed the accumulation of stockpiles of weapons-grade material, ours is actually leading to the destruction of that stockpile of enriched material." ??? The Obama deal did not allow the accumulation of any enriched uranium, let alone "weapons-grade material." In fact, the JCPOA required Iran to ship out 98% of all its enriched uranium, leaving it with no more than 300kg of LEU. It was only after Trump tore up that deal that Iran was free to expand that stockpile to thousands of kg, and to start accumulating 60% highly enriched uranium, 400kg of which is still in Iran. All the MOU says about that is that the US and Iran "have agreed to resolve" its disposition and that this will be done "on-site" (not in the US as Trump promised) and does not say to what level. 4. "The Obama deal gave them over a billion dollars of American money." Once again simply false. The JCPOA unfroze some of Iran's own assets and suspended oil sanctions in exchange for comprehensive and nuclear commitments, and did so only after the IAEA had verified their implementation. The Trump MOU gives Iran "immediate" waivers for exports not just of oil but of derivatives and associated services, commits to making frozen assets available without restrictions, and pledges to develop a $300 bn fund for reconstruction and development in Iran. It also undertakes, in any final nuclear deal, to terminate "all types of sanctions" against Iran, which include sanctions for human rights abuses, ballistic missile production, and sponsorship of terrorism. It's one thing to try to sell an agreement that even your own supporters consider astonishingly weak. It's quite another to try to mislead the American people with blatant distortion of the facts.

Obviously have to wait and see actual details of any deal but if it's anything close to this it is no wonder Trump has been so reluctant to agree to it. -Iran has made pledge not to acquire nuclear weapons many times, including in the JCPOA. -The Strait was already open without tolls before the war. -Iran was already negotiating over HEU and centrifuges before the war. -Unfrozen assets and licenses to sell oil, even if initially limited, will provide regime revenue it didn't have before the war. --The only way to get agreement on the nuclear issues will be to provide (significantly) more economic relief. -The deal does not address ballistic missiles or proxies--for which the JCPOA was heavily criticized. -In fact it depends on Israel *not* attacking Hezbollah. -Nor does it free American detainees (which was at least a meaningful tradeoff for the "pallets of cash" that were in any case a fraction of the economic relief Trump will give Iran.) -Far from helping Iranian protestors, as Trump pledged, the deal leaves them in an impoverished country and in the hands of a vengeful and repressive regime. These are not reasons to oppose a deal that would provide a chance to end the war and open the Strait but they underscore how badly the war has backfired and explain why Trump has been so hesitant to end it on these terms.