PropsEdge retweeted
πNBA POTDπ
πMiles Bridges over 6 rebounds. Books set this at 5.5. At PrizePicks' 6 it's about -115 with the juice removed. DEN allows the 7th-most rebounds to power forwards this season. 2 for 3 this season. Median of 8 over his last 10. 8 for 13 vs DEN.
PropsEdge retweeted
NBA Props Cheat Sheet (8 props tonight), led by Draymond Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: tonight's best props with hit rates, the matchup and the best price for each π
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Trusting The Volume! π
NBA Prop #1 | 10/30 π
Scottie Barnes Over 20.5 Points
Bet365 -115 | 1u
Collab w/ @PropKitchen π¨βπ³
Barnes has been aggressive looking for his shot to start the season, clearing this line in 3/4 games while averaging 18.5 FGA per game. Heβs scored 23+ points in all 3 wins, averaging 26.3 PPG in those contests. His only miss came against Minnesota when he went 0/12 from the field in a clear outlier game but the opportunities were still there.
Kawhi Leonard is ruled out again with knee swelling, leaving Barnes and RJ Barrett as Torontoβs primary scoring options. In their first game without Kawhi, the two combined for 53 points on 35 FGA. Barnes With 13+ FGA, Barnes has cleared this line in 9/L10 games, averaging 24.8 PPG.
This game is in Toronto where Barnes throughout his career has historically been more productive and efficient. He is averaging 25.5 PPG through two games this season at home and has scored 23+ points in five straight games at Scotiabank Arena dating back to last season.
Orlando ranks 28th against opposing PFs in points allowed and 22nd in defensive rating this season. Several of their defensive weaknesses align with how Barnes has been scoring to start the year π
π Rank 23rd vs Transition / 47% of his points
π Rank 25th in Free Throws Allowed / 24% of his points
π Rank 22nd vs Restricted Area / 41% of Barnes of shots
π Rank 23rd vs Shots within 10 FT / 47% of Barnesβ shots
π Rank 27th vs Spot Ups / 13% of his points
Barnes just took advantage of this exact matchup on Wednesday, dropping 28 points on 11/17 shooting and 6/6 from the FT line. He scored 16 points in the third quarter alone and finished with 28 despite not making a single three. Orlando had no answer for his ability to attack the paint and finish around the basket, and he accomplished all of this in only 31 minutes during Torontoβs 30 point victory.
The Magic remain shorthanded with Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac all ruled out. Isaacβs absence removes one of Orlandoβs better defensive forwards, while Bancheroβs injury leaves them with less size and depth in the frontcourt. Orlando ranks 20th in paint points allowed and 29th in opponent FT attempts allowed, giving Barnes opportunities to continue attacking inside and drawing contact. It only helps that he has made all 15 of his free throws through four games.
Tonightβs rematch is part of the NBA Cup Group Stage, where point differential matters for tiebreakers. Toronto is favored by roughly 5 points with a projected total around 226, giving Barnes a reasonable opportunity for another full workload if Orlando keeps this one competitive. He already scored 28 in just 31 minutes against this same depleted defense, and the additional scoring responsibility without Kawhi should remain.
Between the consistent shot volume, expanded offensive responsibility and a favorable matchup against an injured Orlando team he just dominated against two days ago, we like Barnes to score 21+ points here.
β€οΈ if your tailing!
π @PropsEdge
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TNF DvP Cheat Sheet, CAR @ GB: how both defenses rank vs every position, to find your best prop matchups, send it to your group for tonight π²
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PropsEdge retweeted
πNBA POTDπ
πEvan Mobley over 26.5 pts+rebs. Books have this about even; the rest of the evidence leans over. ATL allows the most pts + reb to power forwards this season (50.8 a game, league average 32.7). 3 for 4 this season. Median of 29 over his last 10.
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Perfect Props (Wed, Oct 28), led by Brook Lopez and Stephon Castle: props players have hit every game this season, still priced at the books, to build parlays from π
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Week 8 Matchup Heatmap: every defense ranked in the stats you bet (green = allows the most), to spot your best prop matchups π
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Week 8 Matchup Map: the Panthers have given up the most rush yards to RBs, plus every other defense vs every position π
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PropsEdge retweeted
πNBA POTDπ
πAusar Thompson over 3.5 assists. Books lean over at this number (-111 with the juice removed). NYK allows the most assists to small forwards this season (8.67 a game, league average 4.59). 2 for 2 this season. Median of 5 over his last 10.
PropsEdge retweeted
π We simulated the Trail Blazers @ Lakers game 5,000 times: it keeps landing close, and the typical one is Lakers by 4
π― First basket: Thybulle from three (+1200 on Hard Rock Bet)
π₯ Reaves 24 pts (Over 23.5)
πͺ Reaves 6 reb (Over 4.5)
π₯ Avdija 23 pts (Over 22.5)
πͺ Avdija 11 reb (Over 6.5)
π₯ Lillard 22 pts (Over 19.5)
π Lillard 6 threes (Over 3.5)
π¨ Kessler scores with 22 seconds left to seal it, Lakers 119-115 after 18 lead changes and 9 ties
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PropsEdge retweeted
CASH IT β
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@PropsEdge DFS Optimizer I made this last night when all these percentages chances to hit were green between 55-58%
Scampicks need to hurry up and Green Darren lol any other time they quick to red when they chalk
PropsEdge retweeted
4-2 NFL/NBA Day! πππ
3-0 on free plays. Onto tomorrow!
β
Makai Lemon o37.5 Rec Yards
β
Ajay Mitchell o13.5 Points
β
Darryn Peterson o11.5 Points
β
Paul George o4.5 Rebounds
βTrevon Brazile o16.5 PR
βPayton Watson u16.5 PR
Didnβt expect Watson to be guarded by LaMelo. Game went to OT anyways. Expected more minutes from Brazile after a good showing last game. Regardless we take profit and move! βοΈ
$50 to a random β€οΈ+RT if we sweep!π°
NFL + NBA Card | 10/26 ππ
Makai Lemon o37.5 Rec Yards
Darryn Peterson o11.5 Points
Paul George o4.5 Rebounds
3+ extra NBA plays are posted in VIP! π
Didnt have time to post everything on X!
Been helping take care of a family member.
Grab a 7-Day FREE Trial below on me!π
PropsEdge retweeted
Perfect Props (Mon, Oct 26), led by Aaron Wiggins and Jalen Smith: props players have hit every game this season, still priced at the books, to build parlays from π
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π We simulated the Grizzlies @ Jazz game 5,000 times: the most typical game, start to finish
π― First basket: Grant from three
πͺ Jerome 4 reb (Over 3.5)
π₯ Markkanen 24 pts (Over 22.5)
π Markkanen 5 threes (Over 2.5)
πͺ George 5 reb (Over 3.5)
π€ Boozer 10 ast (Over 4.5)
πͺ Boozer 13 reb (Over 8.5)
π Final: Jazz 123-115, after 12 lead changes and 9 ties
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PropsEdge retweeted
π We simulated the MNF Cowboys @ Eagles game 5,000 times: the most typical one ends Cowboys 26-19
π― First TD: Lamb (+700 on FanDuel)
π Lamb 101 rec yds, 2 TDs (Over 80.5)
π Lamb 11 rec (Over 7.5)
π Pickens 7 rec (Over 4.5)
π Cooper 60 rec yds (Over 39.5)
π Cooper 9 rec (Over 3.5)
π Lemon 47 rec yds (Over 38.5)
π Final: Cowboys 26-19 (12 flags, 0 turnovers)
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π We simulated the Mavericks @ Heat game 5,000 times: the most typical one ends Heat 125-114
π― First basket: Irving (+900 on DraftKings)
π€ Antetokounmpo 6 ast (Over 5.5)
πͺ Irving 5 reb (Over 3.5)
π₯ Adebayo 21 pts (Over 18.5)
πͺ Adebayo 16 reb (Over 9.5)
π₯ Washington 18 pts (Over 14.5)
π Washington 2 threes (Over 1.5)
π Final: Heat 125-114, after 3 lead changes and 2 ties
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MNF DvP Cheat Sheet, DAL @ PHI: how both defenses rank vs every position, to find your best prop matchups, send it to your group for tonight π²
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PropsEdge retweeted
THE ACCURACY IS INSANE π€―
Simulation:
Timberwolves 117 pts
RJ Barrett Over 18.5 PTS
Jaden McDaniels Over 5.5 REB
Actual Result:
β
Timberwolves 117 pts
β
RJ Barrett 20 PTS
β
Jaden McDaniels 6 REB
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π Coin-flip alert for Raptors @ Timberwolves: the most typical of our 5,000 sims ends Raptors 118-117
π― First basket: Leonard (+620 on DraftKings)
π₯ Edwards 30 pts (Over 27.5)
π Edwards 5 threes (Over 3.5)
π₯ Leonard 30 pts (Over 24.5)
π Leonard 4 threes (Over 2.5)
π€ Barnes 9 ast (Over 5.5)
π₯ Barrett 20 pts (Over 18.5)
π¨ Quickley bucket with 18 seconds left wins it, Raptors 118-117 after 10 lead changes and 7 ties
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PropsEdge retweeted
πNFL POTDπ
πJacoby Brissett over 6.5 rush yards. Books have this about even; the rest of the evidence leans over. DEN allows the 6th-most rushing yards to QBs this season (24 a game, league average 17.2). 4 for 6 this season. 2 for 2 vs DEN.
PropsEdge retweeted
SNF DvP Cheat Sheet, KC @ SEA: how both defenses rank vs every position, to find your best prop matchups, send it to your group for tonight π²
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