Providing market information to NWF's sales team and our customers; with occasional nonsense - All views are my own & retweets are not endorsements.
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Joined October 2009
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Markets continue to find strength following recent USDA update- make sure you are covered in Nov/Jan period as supply chain issues are increasing
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Milk deliveries in October drop 4% year-on-year as producer margins are eroded - AHDB - goo.gl/alerts/btgqhX #GoogleAlerts
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Rupert Stafford retweeted
🌽 What a reversal in corn positioning.
Managed money has shifted from a record net long of 431,062 contracts on September 1 to a net short of 22,900 contracts just nine weeks later.
📉 That's a 453,962-contract swing, the largest nine-week decline since at least 2006.
With funds back on the short side, how much additional selling pressure remains, and could positioning become supportive if sentiment shifts?
Rupert Stafford retweeted
Lowest soybean carryout of the year 🌱
The USDA just pegged bean carryout at 300 million
The lowest print of the year thus far
This came despite yield being bumped up to 53.3 bpa. The highest yield print of the year
So despite the crop getting bigger every month since August, the balance sheet has been decreasing
Why?
Because demand has been just that impressive
The extra demand has more than offset the extra supply
Exports alone have ate up an extra +90 million bu of supply since the start of the year
***
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Rupert Stafford retweeted
Spreads, basis, & futures. Producers take note. #cmdtyView
🔹 Funds sold 454,000 corn contracts in two months. Dec corn fell $1.07. The Dec/Mar spread tightened anyway. That is this chart.
🔹 Four higher lows since Aug 18: -16, -15 1/2, -15, -14 1/2. Somebody kept paying up for December corn the whole time the funds were selling it.
🔹 Today USDA caught up. Yield 179.6 (was 181.2). Ending stocks 1.758 bb (was 1.849). Dec corn +9 3/4c to $4.49.
🔹 Here is the part to watch. Dec/Mar closed -12 1/2. It has not closed above -12 1/4 since April 8. It stalled there on Oct 16, tested it again this morning, and backed off.
🔸 Flat price tells you what the funds think. Spreads tell you what the people who own the corn think. A close through -12 1/4 says the farmer still is not selling. A failure says he just did. First notice day is Nov 30.
🤝 Paid partnership
Rupert Stafford retweeted
Both U.S. corn and soybean yields land below market expectations. Corn yield comes in below 180 bu/acre.
Rupert Stafford retweeted
👌🌽🔥 This makes me happy to see! 🙂 Attention to detail is what makes good into excellent 🐄@LGSeedsUK @CLAAS_UK @LallemandUK_IRL
Rupert Stafford retweeted
🌽U.S. corn yield fell to 179.6 bpa this month, driven by declines in major states.
Despite a huge increase in Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana yields fell substantially, as did yield in Nebraska after last month's ear count controversy.
Rupert Stafford retweeted
🌽Combined Argentine and Brazilian corn production increased 7.5 mmt (295 mbu) from last month across the old- and new-crop marketing years.
Rupert Stafford retweeted
U.S. corn ending stocks land well below market expectations on a smaller crop. The U.S. soybean crop was below expectations but up from last month, though an increase to exports trims ending stock projections.
Rupert Stafford retweeted
🇺🇸The U.S. corn harvest continues to lag behind average pace. Nebraska is the most delayed of major states, some 10 percentage points behind the average.
Cotton harvest is moving at a quicker-than-normal clip, and winter wheat conditions improved 5 points from last week.
Rupert Stafford retweeted
🌽Iowa's corn harvest was just 72% done as of Sunday, 17 percentage points behind its normal pace amid rain delays. In the last two decades, only 2008, 2009 & 2019 were slower by this point.
Iowa is set to account for 17.5% of this year's crop, with a massive record yield.
digitaleditions.telegraph.co… Ian Pearce, a retired farmer who bought the day’s shooting from Denny, orders another round of beers. “My God,” he says. “The countryside would be a sad place without shooting.”
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Rupert Stafford retweeted
Corn 🌽Wheat 🌾and soybean 🫛Market Drivers This Week
Bullish 🟢
🔸Ukraine corn harvest very slow with only 38% done. Low prices and wet conditions made many farmers postpone harvest
🔸Ukraine wheat sowing is 85% done, 4% below last year, raising the risk of underdeveloped plants going into winter
🔸Analysts’ November WASDE expectations show soy ending stocks at a large 332 mbu, corn unchanged at 1.846 bbu, and wheat unchanged at 744 mbu. Analysts see corn yield 0.9 bpa lower.
Bearish 🔴
🔸StoneX raised it's US corn yield forecast to 183.1 and soybeans to 55.0 bu/acre
🔸Ukraine peace talks on 10-11 Nov in Abu Dhabi, mediated by the US
🔸Russian wheat exports raised to 3 Mt in Oct with November seen above 3 Mt by IKAR. SovEcon raised Oct by 100k to 2.9 MT
🔸China states that further US agricultural purchases hinge on reciprocal tariff cuts
