CEO of https://nitter.cf/t.co/WK5evC94KG
Joined March 2021
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life update:
bro everything is awesome in a way I wish everyone could experience.
Ridge will GROW more this year than we did in TOTAL revenue in 2024.
Podcast network helping thousands. Making millions.
Shows are now more popular than ever.
Beautiful wife. Perfect son.
Its a level of blessed that I wish on everyone.
WE ARE ALL SO FUCKING BACK.
I’m sick of people telling me how horrible life is now.
By every single metric, it’s the greatest time in human history to be alive.
It’s the best time to be alive, you just have to start living man
checking out a few voter guides, trying to make my mind up on who to vote for to be the mayor of LA...
Some hobbies are just too dangerous after 30
Motorcycles- it’s not if you will drop your bike, it’s when
Skiing- it’s not if you will break your wrist, it’s when
Pick up basketball- it’s not if you will blow an Achilles, it’s when
And crypto…
It’s not IF you will be rugged, it’s just when and for how much.
We have had ZERO ai related layoffs or firings.
AI has not lead to any downsizing or job loss at Ridge.
BUT-
It is skyrocketing productivity.
We will add over 100 million dollars in new revenue next year, and I might only need 10 hires to do it.
Revenue per person is going to start hitting wacky numbers- not just at ridge, but everywhere.
I dont know what this means or how it will change the world.
But expect NVIDIA level revenue per person to start being common.
Email designers are doing 10x the designs.
Product devs are doing 5x the interations.
Media buyers are getting deeper insight, from more accounts, instantly.
Anyone who wants to can be superhuman now.
Weight loss was the biggest single category in ecom
Info sold courses and recipes.
Tons and tons of supplements.
Shapewear was huge.
Ozempic has one shotted that whole market.
But-
New markets will emerge.
I bet loose skin (either surgery, supplements, clothes, or info) will 5x next year.
Another billion dollar market is born.
Apparel brands on @fulfilio sold a bigger share of XL and up almost every year from 2017 to 2024.
27% of pieces in 2017. Growing every year to 34% in 2024.
It has dropped two years in a row since. ↓
"games changed"
well... duh.
The game has changed every 18 months for the past 16 years.
There is a hype cycle that you can see repeat time and time again:
Business is hard so people go under.
But every year new people start new businesses.
Those brands start small, so they grow fast.
Fast growth is sexy, so they attract attention.
They share whats working, new case studies come out, they do podcasts.
Now there is a new playbook.
everyone follows it, exhausts it, and in a year business gets hard again and people go under.
Today its trybe. or ai editing.
Literally a year ago it was tik tok shop.
Before that it was MTA or incrementaility or influencer or applovin or connected TV or buy now pay later or subsciption gummies or whatever
There is always new tools.
There are always new brands.
There will always be new services and ad channels and hacks and tricks.
The lesson is:
whatever you are doing now will stop working at some point.
you will need to learn something new just to stay break even.
if you want to grow, you need to scale your skills faster than the market changes.
everything is fleeting.
whatever you think is the answer will change.
because the world changes.
people change. you need to change too.
You need less input.
less friends, less calls, less side hustles.
and you need to actually focus on the one fucking thing that can change your life.
The US capital markets are a thing of wonder.
Despite everything going on in the world today, the SP500 is still above historic average returns.
China on the other hand...
"man meta ads performance has been shit all month!"
11 billion dollars spent on midterms.
probably undercounted, more like 15 billion.
and unlike the superbowl, these are the most negative ads ever
"EVERYTHING IS EXPENSIVE AND PEOPLE ARE COMING TO KILL YOU"
gee, that probably doesnt fuck up conversion rates.
Im up 70% this month.
if you arent, just stay steady.
you can not stop the american consumer.
they are ready to make you rich this black friday.
JUST STAY FOCUSED
with lots of tech layoffs happening, its a good reminder:
$250,000 a year jobs are actually really fucking rare.
if you have one, you are in the top 1% of earners IN THE ENTIRE WORLD
hold on tight
You can fix america in under 4 years:
Year 1-
Raise taxes 10%.
Cut spending 10%.
This will lead to a budget surplus.
Pay down a small amount of debt.
Year 2-
Stay the course.
Do not buckle, start new wars, start spending.
Pay down another small chunk of debt.
Year 3-
The bond market sees we are serious.
Interest rates will fall to zero. literally as low as we have ever seen.
With it, mortgage rates go down to covid levels.
Economy grows 5%+.
Year 4-
Refinance all outstanding debt.
Bumps up rates, but still well under what spot is now.
By the end of the 4 years, the US economy is growing faster than anyone else on earth.
Borrowing costs are at all time lows.
The extra tax revenue more than covers the short term cuts we had to do.
everyone is richer, we secure another 250 years of the american empire, there is more money for everything.
At any point, any political party can do this.
but its like cooking a meal vs doordashing taco bell.
Its harder to do, so no one does it.
If your goal is communism in America- brother we are already there
The USA spends more on public programs (health care, social security, SNAP) as a % of GDP than Communist China.
We will spend 38% this year.
The same as Venezuela under Chavez.
We are already spending like communist in America.
David Friedberg reveals France's public spending is 57% of GDP: greater than that of communist countries
"This chart is a measure of public spending as a percent of GDP; Rand Group Research published it. And you can see the comparison of France's public spending as a percent of GDP, to the peak public spending as a percent of GDP of major communist nations, Soviet Union during, communist Romania, Venezuela under Chavez, and then communist China."
"It certainly been a socialist state, right? That's my point. I think this is such a precious lesson for the West to look at. We all think that there's some political problem with Macron or whoever it was."
"The more the government spends, the worse the conditions get for its people, not the opposite. And then the people riot and revolt and say that the government's not spending enough and the government needs to be doing more."
"Take a guess where the US is today. Federal government spending is $7.4 trillion, state and local government spending is $4.6 trillion. You add those two together, it's $12 trillion out of a $33 trillion GDP. US public spending is roughly 36% of GDP. France today is the same as the US, it's about 120% debt to GDP."
"France today is operating its national government spending deficit is 5.4% of GDP. The US is actually 6.2% of GDP. France is I think probably the first to go because they're only growing their economy at half a percent while the US is growing 2.3%."
"So we're still kind of hanging on because we have some degree of economic growth that's allowing us to kind of hold things together."
"But I would argue that we are facing the same sort of fiscal cliff that leads to this extraordinary social unrest as France, all the economic measures are aligned, we're at the same rate, we're at the same set of problems."
Guys, I told you-
THE CHECKS IN THE MAIL
CHILL
Honest question:
With all the new facts coming out, why hate data centers?
What we have seen from meta is:
- they are great for unions
- they are great for blue collar workers
- they put money directly into local communities
- they are giving cities money to pay teachers bonuses
- power costs are coming down in towns that build them
- they don’t use any water
This shouldn’t be partisan at all.
They are cleaner than a factory in your town. They are quieter than a new freeway
It’s a big room full of computers that house all your Netflix movies and tik toks.
But this room also pays for the teachers in your town. And makes your bills cheaper.
Seems like a magic room
“After four decades in the skilled trades, I've never seen an industry do more for workers than data centers.”
-Don Slaiman of IBEW Local 26
richmond.com/opinion/column/…
The best thing about building in ecom-
the community
horror stories about getting ripped off by friends
leaking your sales, stealing your employees, etc
BUT!
SAAS and agencies WAY worse.
Knew an agency with a bunch of deals they cant services.
I told them a few people who could help sub contract or at least be introed as alts...
"Id rather no one get the business"
Or look at the fight happening over beehiv right now.
Ecom merchants, more often then not, will hop on a call, make intros, try to help you, share knowledge.
but service and saas...
zero sum until they die.
Just got an offer, A LOI, to acquire ridge for over a billion dollars.
I’m sure you are wondering…
Did you take it?
Who made the offer?
I’ll tell you…
Who made the offer???
ME. IN TEN YEARS.
#LOCKEDIN
Sean Frank retweeted
Last week we shared the numbers from @Shopify’s Entrepreneur Effect report. Then people started sending me their stories.
Reading them is the best part of my job.
Never been a better time to be an entrepreneur.
shopify.com/entrepreneur