buildin @counterpartytv | more clips: @genzzztrade account run by parents
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Jensen reveals he first met the Founder of TSMC by cold calling their number off Yellow Pages
"I heard about this company in Taiwan, TSMC and UMC at the time. They were of course quite poor companies themselves, and they were barely making it."
"TSMC was probably about $300 million, something like that. It's a tiny little company. I heard about Morris Chang. And so I tried to call their US office."
"Back in the old days there were yellow pages. I looked it up, TSMC. There's a number there. I called their number and it's a recording. I left my name and my number and said a few things about NVIDIA: we're a new startup company building computer graphics chips. I called several times. Nobody called me back."
"And so I finally wrote a letter to Morris Chang. Didn't hear anything for a long time, and then one day it was 6 o'clock or something, this person called and said 'this is Morris Chang from TSMC.'"
"And meanwhile, everybody outside my office was playing video games and they're all laughing and screaming. 'Hey shut up! It's Morris!' I was so happy that the founder would actually call us back, because hey, maybe we won't have to die."
"And so we talked and he invited me to Taiwan. I came back to Taiwan, and that was the start of everything. Not just that partnership, but just the whole industry."
dnap retweeted
our stream today in 46 minutes + covering binance hack
11:52 Druckenmiller's first tweet was a HYPE shill
18:44 LLM ads will be the best business ever
30:39 Binance HACKED for $5.5B
38:13 10/10 all over again?
39:45 the largest hack in internet history
41:09 the wall of worry isn't climbed
dnap retweeted
Threadguy explains why massive exploits like the Binance hack are terrible for crypto and market sentiment
“I don't care what you say about it, this is bad, it's bad”
“Yes you're going to get made whole, yes Binance has a hundred and fifty billion dollars, yes they're going to pay you back, yes you're going to lose no money, but I'm sorry, fucking the biggest crypto exchange in the world by many X's just got exploited for five and a half billion dollars”
“The problem is people are scared, they don't trust anything, they don't trust security, and yes it hasn't happened yet, but what if it's about to happen later?”
Sam Altman says a trillion slightly superhuman AIs are better for society than one AI with an IQ of a trillion
"I think the properties of swarms match a lot of the properties of the resilience of society or the robustness of society that I think we're just missing from the single rollout, single-brained version of the world."
"For all of the deep flaws of society, it is unbelievably robust. And this would not happen without a lot of people keeping each other in check and collaborating and these values of pluralism and democracy."
"I had been sort of sad that that was going to trend away in AI. And now I'm excited about this as a direction."
"I would much rather intuitively have a trillion AIs of slightly superhuman intelligence join society than one AI of one trillion IQ join society."
"All of these things are things we have to push for. We have this incredible technology. It can be pointed and deployed in many ways. I think there are a lot of people who may have a different opinion about how it should be used and what is the best version of the world but this is the one that I think is right."
dnap retweeted
Imagine being one of the AI researchers he’s talking about, real tough break for those guys lmao.
Dario reveals the people who called his GPT-2 fears "pseudoscience" in 2019 are now all applying for jobs at AI labs
"I personally was super freaked out by [GPT-2]. I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything. This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet. This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity."
"Maybe 10% of the people around me had exactly the same reaction, and it was often the smartest ones. 90% of the people around me, because GPT-2's capabilities in any particular area were not that impressive, it could translate languages, summarize a document and write a few lines of code here and there. It was the broadness and the generality."
"But people would look at it and say, in any particular area, that doesn't seem so smart. And so many people just shrugged and they just dismissed it."
"I just look at it and I say it's the same thing over and over again. The limitations of the models, six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're going to be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are going to be doing them regularly."
"It's everything we saw with GPT-2; we're seeing it over and over again in wider and wider swaths of the world. And the world is gradually finally being convinced."
Daniela Amodei: "I remember at the time there were some very well-respected computer scientists and AI and ML leaders who basically bullied some of the researchers who worked on [GPT-2] on Twitter and were like, this is stupid. We don't know why you guys are even talking, this model is so incapable."
"It was like you were sort of a quack if you believed this was a really significant moment."
Dario: "That's all been memory-holed. All the researchers who were like, oh, this is pseudoscience, it doesn't make sense, all of them are applying for jobs at the LLM companies."
"We never say it out loud to any particular one, but we look at them and they're like, we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter."
dnap retweeted
Never, ever let them tell you it can't be done.
Palmer Luckey says analysts claiming it's too expensive to manufacture in the US are lying to protect megacorps
"I think I have a more realistic view than almost anybody. One of the problems with all these analysts that are telling you that it's going to cost $37,000 to build an American iPhone or $100,000 to buy an American computer."
"They're trying to prop up a status quo that the megacorporations want to keep going. They want to outsource everything. They want to hire cheaper non-American labor."
"They are willing to say and do anything to convince you that it can't be fixed, that it can't come back, that America is this helpless, neutered, post-relevant empire, and it is just not the case."
"How do I know that? Because I have to make stuff in America every day because I work in the defense industry. The stuff that Anduril makes every day is not actually that different from a computer. My drones are basically computers. They have memory, a GPU, a CPU, sensors, batteries, a rugged integration."
"The only difference between an Anduril attack drone and a laptop is a keyboard and a screen. That is not that hard to figure out, especially for a guy like me who started Oculus and comes from the consumer electronics space."
"We're not going to let people lie about what America can and can't do anymore. We're just going to do it."
dnap retweeted
our stream today in 40 minutes
2:38 Fear and Loathing on Crypto Twitter
8:01 $30B Instinct round is the top?
10:46 the AI gaming super cycle
13:15 China cancels Mbappe
17:56 AI layoffs are starting
21:47 Robinhood is a prediction market now
30:02 FOMC was a nothing burger
dnap retweeted
THE S&P GAVE YOU 26X. PRIVATE EQUITY GAVE YOU 139X. WHY CAN’T YOU ACCESS IT?
THE WOLF VC SHOW EP 11 with @SelfTSuccess & @KyleSonlin feat. @dnapway
In this episode we talked about:
- Tony Robbins says private equity beats the S&P by 5x over 35 years. Kyle explains the catch nobody talks about
- Legacy financial media is on its way out. Here is where the smart money is actually getting its information
- AI replaced coders before truckers. Why that should surprise everyone
- Can tokenized equity democratize private markets or is it just hype
dnap retweeted
This same phenomena is happening in physical AI
Even after GPT-4 came out, I remember talking to computer scientists/ML experts that were so confident that general purpose models were overhyped and wouldn’t be able to produce real useful work soon. A lot of reductionist talk about stochastic parrots and next token predictors.
It is surprisingly difficult for a lot of career technologists to grasp non linear technological trends and how slopes can change.
Different experts in the same domain can have widely different expectations for technological advancement even 1-2 years in the future.
There is also an element of information asymmetry. Organizations on the frontier move at vastly different paces than those that don’t. They are privy to key know how and training/data collection approaches that can potentially compress R&D pace by orders of magnitude.
It’s important to remember that those that aren’t on the frontier are somewhat blind to the full state of the world even though they might not think that they are.
We see time and time again that research paradigms are always changing and the same bottlenecks that existed yesterday get solved by smart brains (and AI models) motivated enough to tackle them.
Laggards claim “we are so far”. We bet on the people that respond with “skill issue”.
Dario reveals the people who called his GPT-2 fears "pseudoscience" in 2019 are now all applying for jobs at AI labs
"I personally was super freaked out by [GPT-2]. I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything. This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet. This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity."
"Maybe 10% of the people around me had exactly the same reaction, and it was often the smartest ones. 90% of the people around me, because GPT-2's capabilities in any particular area were not that impressive, it could translate languages, summarize a document and write a few lines of code here and there. It was the broadness and the generality."
"But people would look at it and say, in any particular area, that doesn't seem so smart. And so many people just shrugged and they just dismissed it."
"I just look at it and I say it's the same thing over and over again. The limitations of the models, six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're going to be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are going to be doing them regularly."
"It's everything we saw with GPT-2; we're seeing it over and over again in wider and wider swaths of the world. And the world is gradually finally being convinced."
Daniela Amodei: "I remember at the time there were some very well-respected computer scientists and AI and ML leaders who basically bullied some of the researchers who worked on [GPT-2] on Twitter and were like, this is stupid. We don't know why you guys are even talking, this model is so incapable."
"It was like you were sort of a quack if you believed this was a really significant moment."
Dario: "That's all been memory-holed. All the researchers who were like, oh, this is pseudoscience, it doesn't make sense, all of them are applying for jobs at the LLM companies."
"We never say it out loud to any particular one, but we look at them and they're like, we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter."
Palmer Luckey says analysts claiming it's too expensive to manufacture in the US are lying to protect megacorps
"I think I have a more realistic view than almost anybody. One of the problems with all these analysts that are telling you that it's going to cost $37,000 to build an American iPhone or $100,000 to buy an American computer."
"They're trying to prop up a status quo that the megacorporations want to keep going. They want to outsource everything. They want to hire cheaper non-American labor."
"They are willing to say and do anything to convince you that it can't be fixed, that it can't come back, that America is this helpless, neutered, post-relevant empire, and it is just not the case."
"How do I know that? Because I have to make stuff in America every day because I work in the defense industry. The stuff that Anduril makes every day is not actually that different from a computer. My drones are basically computers. They have memory, a GPU, a CPU, sensors, batteries, a rugged integration."
"The only difference between an Anduril attack drone and a laptop is a keyboard and a screen. That is not that hard to figure out, especially for a guy like me who started Oculus and comes from the consumer electronics space."
"We're not going to let people lie about what America can and can't do anymore. We're just going to do it."
dnap retweeted
LIVE: REACTING TO FOMC nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1nJOLQMng…
our stream today in 40 minutes
2:41 AI killed analysts reading S-1s
4:29 spent my morning buying MREs
5:46 AI cyber risk is the next COVID
14:18 hackers demanding $50m ransoms
27:31 the only doomsday prep is cash
30:05 running Anthropic aged Dario
31:38 Jason is bearish BTC and long TAO
34:57 everything is AI except Bitcoin
dnap retweeted
🤖 Made with AI
Dario reveals the people who called his GPT-2 fears "pseudoscience" in 2019 are now all applying for jobs at AI labs
"I personally was super freaked out by [GPT-2]. I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything. This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet. This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity."
"Maybe 10% of the people around me had exactly the same reaction, and it was often the smartest ones. 90% of the people around me, because GPT-2's capabilities in any particular area were not that impressive, it could translate languages, summarize a document and write a few lines of code here and there. It was the broadness and the generality."
"But people would look at it and say, in any particular area, that doesn't seem so smart. And so many people just shrugged and they just dismissed it."
"I just look at it and I say it's the same thing over and over again. The limitations of the models, six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're going to be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are going to be doing them regularly."
"It's everything we saw with GPT-2; we're seeing it over and over again in wider and wider swaths of the world. And the world is gradually finally being convinced."
Daniela Amodei: "I remember at the time there were some very well-respected computer scientists and AI and ML leaders who basically bullied some of the researchers who worked on [GPT-2] on Twitter and were like, this is stupid. We don't know why you guys are even talking, this model is so incapable."
"It was like you were sort of a quack if you believed this was a really significant moment."
Dario: "That's all been memory-holed. All the researchers who were like, oh, this is pseudoscience, it doesn't make sense, all of them are applying for jobs at the LLM companies."
"We never say it out loud to any particular one, but we look at them and they're like, we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter."
dnap retweeted
our stream today in 40 minutes
2:41 AI killed analysts reading S-1s
4:29 spent my morning buying MREs
5:46 AI cyber risk is the next COVID
14:18 hackers demanding $50m ransoms
27:31 the only doomsday prep is cash
30:05 running Anthropic aged Dario
31:38 Jason is bearish BTC and long TAO
34:57 everything is AI except Bitcoin
Gavin Baker says despite Anthropic’s $67 billion in annualized revenue, enterprise adoption is still very early
"I do think the Anthropic S1 was pretty clearly an upside surprise. The fact that they've only burned $10 billion, the profitability, the cash generation, the unit economics, they're all very encouraging."
"I put it on X, but I just cannot believe that whatever it is, half of the Fortune 500 has adopted Anthropic and it's 0.1% of their expenses. It's just a wild stat."
"It's incredibly impressive for a company in just a few years to get half the Fortune 500 on as customers. But I was kind of like, what are the other half of the Fortune 500 doing?"
"There's a lot of companies that just haven't really gotten through the adoption hiccups of rolling out AI broadly. Maybe some of them are all in on Google or OpenAI. But by and large, I think some of them are just still figuring out how AI can be deployed in their organizations."
"It’s very early. If anything, maybe earlier than I thought we were. Whatever the number is, $67 billion annualized if you annualize the reported third quarter. But to be that big with such low penetration into the Fortune 500, it is pretty extraordinary."
Technology Is Back, Gavin Baker Live, Math Solved Again, Anduril Laptop, DoorDash + Instacart nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1DGleVAjj…
dnap retweeted
Stream sponsors update: Counterparty has concluded year one sponsorships with Phantom and Polymarket. I want to sincerely thank both teams for their incredible support, belief in our vision, and collaboration over the past year.
Phantom took a bet on me when I was streaming out of my living room in 2024 to nobody. I wouldn’t be where I am today without them and I'm eternally grateful to Will, Brandon, and the entire Phantom team.
Polymarket came in a little later to help us scale the show to the next level. Throughout our partnership the stream has grown 10x in live viewership and many multiples in clip impressions and they played a significant role in increasing the quality of our news coverage.
As the stream and Counterparty continue to evolve, we are stepping into an exciting new chapter. Thank you to our community for the ongoing support. Stay tuned, there is so much more to come.
Dario reveals he was never interested in starting a business before Anthropic
"I don't think either of us imagined that we would start a company. That's not really how either of us thought of our lives or about what we wanted to do. I had always wanted to be a scientist. I actually found companies in business to be of very little interest to me."
Daniella Amodei: “I would say Dario and I were very unusual in that, from a really early age, we just genuinely really liked each other. We were always just best friends since we were really little.”
“I don't think starting a company was ever on our bingo card. Neither of us were particularly company oriented."
"I would call myself a classic do-gooder. I worked in international development. I felt really strongly about helping people everywhere in the world have equal access and opportunity.”
“And I became a vegetarian when I was quite young. It's the only thing that I did first. Dario did everything first because he's older, but I became a vegetarian and then he became a vegetarian."
Dario: “I think I was three years later or so. It seemed convincing to me."