buildin @counterpartytv | more clips: @genzzztrade account run by parents
Joined October 2021
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dnap retweeted
our stream today in 46 minutes + covering binance hack
11:52 Druckenmiller's first tweet was a HYPE shill
18:44 LLM ads will be the best business ever
30:39 Binance HACKED for $5.5B
38:13 10/10 all over again?
39:45 the largest hack in internet history
41:09 the wall of worry isn't climbed
dnap retweeted
Threadguy explains why massive exploits like the Binance hack are terrible for crypto and market sentiment
“I don't care what you say about it, this is bad, it's bad”
“Yes you're going to get made whole, yes Binance has a hundred and fifty billion dollars, yes they're going to pay you back, yes you're going to lose no money, but I'm sorry, fucking the biggest crypto exchange in the world by many X's just got exploited for five and a half billion dollars”
“The problem is people are scared, they don't trust anything, they don't trust security, and yes it hasn't happened yet, but what if it's about to happen later?”
dnap retweeted
Imagine being one of the AI researchers he’s talking about, real tough break for those guys lmao.
Dario reveals the people who called his GPT-2 fears "pseudoscience" in 2019 are now all applying for jobs at AI labs
"I personally was super freaked out by [GPT-2]. I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything. This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet. This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity."
"Maybe 10% of the people around me had exactly the same reaction, and it was often the smartest ones. 90% of the people around me, because GPT-2's capabilities in any particular area were not that impressive, it could translate languages, summarize a document and write a few lines of code here and there. It was the broadness and the generality."
"But people would look at it and say, in any particular area, that doesn't seem so smart. And so many people just shrugged and they just dismissed it."
"I just look at it and I say it's the same thing over and over again. The limitations of the models, six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're going to be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are going to be doing them regularly."
"It's everything we saw with GPT-2; we're seeing it over and over again in wider and wider swaths of the world. And the world is gradually finally being convinced."
Daniela Amodei: "I remember at the time there were some very well-respected computer scientists and AI and ML leaders who basically bullied some of the researchers who worked on [GPT-2] on Twitter and were like, this is stupid. We don't know why you guys are even talking, this model is so incapable."
"It was like you were sort of a quack if you believed this was a really significant moment."
Dario: "That's all been memory-holed. All the researchers who were like, oh, this is pseudoscience, it doesn't make sense, all of them are applying for jobs at the LLM companies."
"We never say it out loud to any particular one, but we look at them and they're like, we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter."
dnap retweeted
Never, ever let them tell you it can't be done.
Palmer Luckey says analysts claiming it's too expensive to manufacture in the US are lying to protect megacorps
"I think I have a more realistic view than almost anybody. One of the problems with all these analysts that are telling you that it's going to cost $37,000 to build an American iPhone or $100,000 to buy an American computer."
"They're trying to prop up a status quo that the megacorporations want to keep going. They want to outsource everything. They want to hire cheaper non-American labor."
"They are willing to say and do anything to convince you that it can't be fixed, that it can't come back, that America is this helpless, neutered, post-relevant empire, and it is just not the case."
"How do I know that? Because I have to make stuff in America every day because I work in the defense industry. The stuff that Anduril makes every day is not actually that different from a computer. My drones are basically computers. They have memory, a GPU, a CPU, sensors, batteries, a rugged integration."
"The only difference between an Anduril attack drone and a laptop is a keyboard and a screen. That is not that hard to figure out, especially for a guy like me who started Oculus and comes from the consumer electronics space."
"We're not going to let people lie about what America can and can't do anymore. We're just going to do it."
dnap retweeted
our stream today in 40 minutes
2:38 Fear and Loathing on Crypto Twitter
8:01 $30B Instinct round is the top?
10:46 the AI gaming super cycle
13:15 China cancels Mbappe
17:56 AI layoffs are starting
21:47 Robinhood is a prediction market now
30:02 FOMC was a nothing burger
dnap retweeted
THE S&P GAVE YOU 26X. PRIVATE EQUITY GAVE YOU 139X. WHY CAN’T YOU ACCESS IT?
THE WOLF VC SHOW EP 11 with @SelfTSuccess & @KyleSonlin feat. @dnapway
In this episode we talked about:
- Tony Robbins says private equity beats the S&P by 5x over 35 years. Kyle explains the catch nobody talks about
- Legacy financial media is on its way out. Here is where the smart money is actually getting its information
- AI replaced coders before truckers. Why that should surprise everyone
- Can tokenized equity democratize private markets or is it just hype
dnap retweeted
This same phenomena is happening in physical AI
Even after GPT-4 came out, I remember talking to computer scientists/ML experts that were so confident that general purpose models were overhyped and wouldn’t be able to produce real useful work soon. A lot of reductionist talk about stochastic parrots and next token predictors.
It is surprisingly difficult for a lot of career technologists to grasp non linear technological trends and how slopes can change.
Different experts in the same domain can have widely different expectations for technological advancement even 1-2 years in the future.
There is also an element of information asymmetry. Organizations on the frontier move at vastly different paces than those that don’t. They are privy to key know how and training/data collection approaches that can potentially compress R&D pace by orders of magnitude.
It’s important to remember that those that aren’t on the frontier are somewhat blind to the full state of the world even though they might not think that they are.
We see time and time again that research paradigms are always changing and the same bottlenecks that existed yesterday get solved by smart brains (and AI models) motivated enough to tackle them.
Laggards claim “we are so far”. We bet on the people that respond with “skill issue”.
Dario reveals the people who called his GPT-2 fears "pseudoscience" in 2019 are now all applying for jobs at AI labs
"I personally was super freaked out by [GPT-2]. I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything. This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet. This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity."
"Maybe 10% of the people around me had exactly the same reaction, and it was often the smartest ones. 90% of the people around me, because GPT-2's capabilities in any particular area were not that impressive, it could translate languages, summarize a document and write a few lines of code here and there. It was the broadness and the generality."
"But people would look at it and say, in any particular area, that doesn't seem so smart. And so many people just shrugged and they just dismissed it."
"I just look at it and I say it's the same thing over and over again. The limitations of the models, six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're going to be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are going to be doing them regularly."
"It's everything we saw with GPT-2; we're seeing it over and over again in wider and wider swaths of the world. And the world is gradually finally being convinced."
Daniela Amodei: "I remember at the time there were some very well-respected computer scientists and AI and ML leaders who basically bullied some of the researchers who worked on [GPT-2] on Twitter and were like, this is stupid. We don't know why you guys are even talking, this model is so incapable."
"It was like you were sort of a quack if you believed this was a really significant moment."
Dario: "That's all been memory-holed. All the researchers who were like, oh, this is pseudoscience, it doesn't make sense, all of them are applying for jobs at the LLM companies."
"We never say it out loud to any particular one, but we look at them and they're like, we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter."
dnap retweeted
LIVE: REACTING TO FOMC nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1nJOLQMng…
dnap retweeted
🤖 Made with AI
Dario reveals the people who called his GPT-2 fears "pseudoscience" in 2019 are now all applying for jobs at AI labs
"I personally was super freaked out by [GPT-2]. I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything. This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet. This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity."
"Maybe 10% of the people around me had exactly the same reaction, and it was often the smartest ones. 90% of the people around me, because GPT-2's capabilities in any particular area were not that impressive, it could translate languages, summarize a document and write a few lines of code here and there. It was the broadness and the generality."
"But people would look at it and say, in any particular area, that doesn't seem so smart. And so many people just shrugged and they just dismissed it."
"I just look at it and I say it's the same thing over and over again. The limitations of the models, six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're going to be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are going to be doing them regularly."
"It's everything we saw with GPT-2; we're seeing it over and over again in wider and wider swaths of the world. And the world is gradually finally being convinced."
Daniela Amodei: "I remember at the time there were some very well-respected computer scientists and AI and ML leaders who basically bullied some of the researchers who worked on [GPT-2] on Twitter and were like, this is stupid. We don't know why you guys are even talking, this model is so incapable."
"It was like you were sort of a quack if you believed this was a really significant moment."
Dario: "That's all been memory-holed. All the researchers who were like, oh, this is pseudoscience, it doesn't make sense, all of them are applying for jobs at the LLM companies."
"We never say it out loud to any particular one, but we look at them and they're like, we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter."
dnap retweeted
our stream today in 40 minutes
2:41 AI killed analysts reading S-1s
4:29 spent my morning buying MREs
5:46 AI cyber risk is the next COVID
14:18 hackers demanding $50m ransoms
27:31 the only doomsday prep is cash
30:05 running Anthropic aged Dario
31:38 Jason is bearish BTC and long TAO
34:57 everything is AI except Bitcoin
dnap retweeted
Stream sponsors update: Counterparty has concluded year one sponsorships with Phantom and Polymarket. I want to sincerely thank both teams for their incredible support, belief in our vision, and collaboration over the past year.
Phantom took a bet on me when I was streaming out of my living room in 2024 to nobody. I wouldn’t be where I am today without them and I'm eternally grateful to Will, Brandon, and the entire Phantom team.
Polymarket came in a little later to help us scale the show to the next level. Throughout our partnership the stream has grown 10x in live viewership and many multiples in clip impressions and they played a significant role in increasing the quality of our news coverage.
As the stream and Counterparty continue to evolve, we are stepping into an exciting new chapter. Thank you to our community for the ongoing support. Stay tuned, there is so much more to come.
dnap retweeted
Brains were indeed broken.
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains
"The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
"Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing."
"These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire."
"They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone."
"It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
dnap retweeted
Vindicated
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains
"The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
"Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing."
"These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire."
"They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone."
"It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
dnap retweeted
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains
"The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
"Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing."
"These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire."
"They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone."
"It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
dnap retweeted
our stream today in 42 minutes ft. @QwQiao
0:58 my TV is spying on me
5:04 Brazil dumps 28% on election
9:17 Anthropic grew 1,300% in a year
23:09 Qiao Wang joins the stream
24:05 $BTC's thesis unchanged in 15 years
25:40 dumbest people you know are long AI
33:19 Zcash is the hedge against Bitcoin
36:28 IPOs are a scam
dnap retweeted
our stream today in 48 minutes
0:30 my FYP would break Alexander the Great
4:51 cypherpunk pilled from reverse first principles
7:28 crypto was born in the dark forest
22:47 the banks can cheat
26:12 Togi’s $1M Moderna trade
39:37 just one more 2x I promise
42:12 analysis of zoomer humor
dnap retweeted
our full interview with @surveillor
1:22 trade the smallest market you can
3:29 why alts can still 5x
5:13 ignoring AI and quantum FUD
6:21 25% of his port in $CARDS
7:51 zero leverage, 25% max drawdown
9:43 buying the $LIT bottom
12:57 being contrarian is reta*ded
14:16 6 months holding CARDS
24:03 the PUMP and LIT bullcase
29:33 $2.5K Pikachu now worth $150K
dnap retweeted
My full interview on Market Bubble with @blknoiz06 & @Banks We cover a huge amount of topics and I spend a long time explaining why NOW is the time to be BULLISH. Check it out
1:48 the biggest opportunity in crypto ever
4:20 100x coins still left
7:12 my biggest positions
10:02 coins that are money vs coins that make money
19:12 Ethereum is the Cisco of crypto
22:19 the Pearl thesis
28:00 how I research coins
35:03 engineer to Threadguy's stream
46:59 the Kimchi phenomenon
52:34 does crypto need a rebrand?
1:05:14 the stock market runs on hyperstition
1:17:21 the clipping business
1:28:42 old DeFi ideas come back
dnap retweeted
Why you shouldn't panic about AI hacks: my full interview with cybersecurity expert @tayvano_
0:37 how bad is the PHP bug?
2:33 PHP is 70% of the internet
6:59 a private key that was just "4"
9:04 crypto is safer than the internet
15:30 never panic, diversify
17:04 how Cloudflare saved the internet
18:49 Railway hack drained wallets
21:07 Monero & Zcash are most hardened
22:35 Bitcoin's real risk is its culture
27:02 hardware 2FA on everything