Tim Shipman

🚨 NEW: People with ADHD can now get a third off train tickets under Government changes to the disabled railcard to include people with neurodivergence

U-turn complete. What a rollercoaster...

Holy. Shit. The NYT is reporting that despite their denials, Mary Peltola's staff and Democratic operatives flew all over Alaska in secret to find and recruit a man named Dan Sullivan. They put him on the ballot to purposefully steal votes from Republican Dan Sullivan.

DEFENCE ROW LATEST: I've now been contacted by a government spinner to help 'clarify' this situation. Here's what they say: "- This is a technical adjustment to RDEL budgets, equal to the amount depts no longer need to spend on pensions. - There is a corresponding increase to AME pensions spending. - This does not affect MoD's spending power, or NATO targets. - Defence spending has been increased by £14bn compared to previous govt's plans" My thought: 'If you're explaining, you're losing' Their response: 'The Tories are reading it wrong. That's the pithier explanation.' Clear as mud. You're all welcome

Big row potentially brewing on defence… Tories alleging that Healey - the man of principle who quit over DIP - might actually be *cutting* defence spending In the next two financial years, the budget for the MOD will be £1bn a year less than Rachel Reeves planned when the DIP was published in June. The total departmental spending can be calculated from the Budget Red Book pages 145-147. When compared to the DIP settlement, the Tories claim it shows that Labour are cutting £1bn a year from the MOD budget for the next two years. Why? It appears that they are forecast to spend less than expected on pensions. Rather than the MOD being allowed to reuse this Resource Department Expenditure Limit, the Treasury has kept it Cartlidge: “This is a complete dereliction of duty from the Chancellor”

Andy Burnham has once again ruled out a snap election in the next year. Asked if he would do so, the PM told reporters: “I don’t know how many times I’ve done this now, but yes, I can rule out calling a general election in the next 12 months. “I have said repeatedly since coming into this job, I’m not thinking about myself. I’m not thinking about my own party and its prospects. “I am thinking about people, and I’m thinking about what I can do to help them to have that care for people, which I spoke about on my first day in Downing Street.” He added: “We’ve got a 10-year plan to come, and that will inform the spending review next year. These are my priorities, not looking at our own internal party political advantage.”

Big row potentially brewing on defence… Tories alleging that Healey - the man of principle who quit over DIP - might actually be *cutting* defence spending In the next two financial years, the budget for the MOD will be £1bn a year less than Rachel Reeves planned when the DIP was published in June. The total departmental spending can be calculated from the Budget Red Book pages 145-147. When compared to the DIP settlement, the Tories claim it shows that Labour are cutting £1bn a year from the MOD budget for the next two years. Why? It appears that they are forecast to spend less than expected on pensions. Rather than the MOD being allowed to reuse this Resource Department Expenditure Limit, the Treasury has kept it Cartlidge: “This is a complete dereliction of duty from the Chancellor”

CONFIRMED. Gas Standing Charges to be scrapped. I've just come out of a meeting with the Chancellor. The gas standing charge will be scrapped in 2027 (my guess, either for 1 Oct price cap or the 1 Jan 28 price cap). Having campaigned against the moral hazard of standing charges for years, I'm pleased. It's currently £108 a year. That cost will be shifted onto unit rates. We don't know how much yet, but I suspect just under 1p per kwH. The Chancellor also said he will be talking to Ofgem about how they get rid of the charge on electricity as well, but that is 'trickier' apparently and will take longer. This is primarily about the price cap standing charges. There will still be an open market, so other firms can offer other forms of prices with or without the standing charge. My suspicion is that once it goes on the price cap, it will tend to be reduced on other tariffs as well. As for those on fixes: if you get a fix now, the rate of your fix is fixed, so this should not affect it. You will pay what you pay and if it has standing charges they will continue (some asking if they should delay fixing because of this, no if a fix is right for you and will save you money, don't let this change that - this is about the structure of bills, as opposed to the actual costs on bills). About 60% of people will pay less due to this, 40% more. My guesstimate is the dividing line will be somewhere around 12,500 kilowatt hours of gas (can't know until there is actual pricing). According to a study by Nesta, this switch would leave the majority of people in all income groups under £100,000 better off. Of course, when this does come in, if we're still in the nightmare that we are right now, there will need to be support put in for vulnerable higher users, who will have to pay more. Though hopefully by then the mid-east will have calmed and energy prices lower. --------------- That's all long term. The biggest issue in energy right now is that we're expecting a 27% rise in the price cap in January. I asked the Chancellor whether he will be intervening on that. He told me I'd have to wait for the budget, but reading between the lines, yes, there will be an announcement today. Whether it's an increase in the Warm Home Discount, or whether it's council tax banned, or whether it's done via a payout for people in say council tax bands A-D as a proxy for household income as Rishi Sunak did who knows.

I know this is a small point but you are really not supposed to selectively tell certain people about the contents of your Budget. We used to tell HMT officials they could go to jail for this.

BIN THE BUDGET by @willydunn Budgets are an inherently dishonest way to run a country. What if we just stopped doing them? Cover art by Carl Godfrey