Sina (@SinaTweet) profile picture
Joined September 2012
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I keep checking my feed but neither @PatrickCeresna nor @kevinmuir is calling what seems to be this obvious prarie dog pattern on $IWM weekly
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@kevinmuir in hindsight this was the high in IWM, but the prarie dogs butt gap is now a potential target at 221.3?
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Tweet of the Year
Do you want to see what the false hubris of a fallen hegemon sounds like? What a tired Empire projects as it flails to keep away the furies of an emerging multipolar order? Then tune into the press conference of @StephenCurry30 @Money23Green and @KlayThompson from last night
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Is it Omicron? NO. Is it *just* "postioning" like @kevinmuir said on this weeks @TheMarketHuddle? Doubt it. Thread: TED spreads. Still very narrow vs history but nearly twice as wide since mid Oct and more than twice as wide since mid Aug. 1/
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Breadth. As @JeffSnider_AIP often tells @EmilKalinowski it sure does look like a lot of stuff hit a "landmine" around Nov 8. 5/
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Take a look around. Stocks, currencies, bonds have all been saying something for a while. Commodities like oil weren't listening and caught down in savage fashion. end/
For weeks/months we've had: bond curves flattening, USD spiking, equity breadth and correlation divergences, energy prices spiking, massive real economy volatility...but sure, the market is down because of a new COVID variant.
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"The administration and market regulators ... are preparing to formally develop a new market structure." "The would-be market redesigners, though, do yet not have the information they would require on the workings of the existing market machine." 🤦‍♂️ ft.com/content/27e7d7ca-f5d0…
How hard is it for $VIRT to enter a new market or geography? Looks more like $AAPL writing the next version of iOS than $NEM opening a new gold mine. Current ramp up for them is the options market. Going OK so far! 2Q'21 options MM was up 22% QoQ, definitely techish!
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I think this probably has some more room to grow. Why? Take a look at the $HOOD SEC Rule 606 filing cdn.robinhood.com/assets/rob… for 2Q'21. Depending on the order type and marketplace, $VIRT makes markets for ~30-40% of orders.
Have at it FinTwit
Replying to @im_PULSE
Knowledge is no match for gut-feeling. So if your feelings are strong enough, go and challenge a historian or political scientist or area specialist. And do it with snark to show how contemptible their belief in facts is.
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In this thread @MacroAlf espouses the common view that QE is pushing Banks/Fins out on the duration then risk curve because reserves don't pay enough yield or have enough risk exposure. But there is something more important at play. Funding! 1/5
What's QE all about? When the Fed buys bonds, the asset side of banks balance sheet is changed from x bonds to x reserves Both are assets & have good regulatory/liquidity treatment But bonds earn you coupons and expose you to market risks and volatility Reserves don't 1/4
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In such instos, it's backwards vs @MacroAlf describes! They won't buy HY regardless of coupon. They'll bid notes vs bonds and bills vs notes. They'll bid on-the-run bills vs off-the-run bills. When seeking funding in repo, risk is bad! Least risky collateral funds best. 4/5
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This is the idiocy of QE. Everyone thinks Fed is flooding the market with "money". In reality, Fed is choking precious collateral from global monetary system, forcing Fins to bid collateral assets regardless of profit. 5/5