Charts, fundamentals and voices in my head 25K to 1M Journey (at 31K) Free value in pinned
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Joined March 2024
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Solsk | Trading retweeted
Would be lovely if $APP falls to $200+.
Yes it has strong top-line growth.
Yes it has strong margins.
Yes it has strong EBITDA margins.
Yes it has strong FCF generation.
But markets are always a discounting mechanism for the future.
Ignore those that use plain multiples, ignore those that use - XYZ % from ATH. Those are lagging metrics.
A stock price is a reflection of market expectations. AppLovin couldn't meet an impossibly high and perfect execution standards set by Wall Street, hence the stock price (almost -60% from ATH).
Technical downside would not be surprising. And remember, a company's fundamentals can still improve while its stock price continues marching downward.
$APP is a classic "show-me story". A structural turnaround will take time, and it certainly won't happen over a single quarter.
3 things that the management needs to do:
- Deploy the AI Creative Suite
- Prove AXON Model's success in the E-Com space
- Show meaningful, sequential expansion in e-commerce revenue to offset tapering gaming growth
NFADYOR, I do not own any shares. But I may look to enter at $220.
Alright it's been awhile since I've done a broad market update. I also haven't really been following up on the charts including individual stock charts I have drawn previously but I turned out to be right $APP $IREN etc haha they broke down like sh1t.
The indices look ugly as f. $SPY just broke the 100D MA while $QQQ just broke the 200D MA. The last time both did that, A 5% MARKET CORRECTION HAPPENED. $IWM still holding steady in a consolidation range but I wouldn't fight the trend to be very honest. If they continue to break down I am ready to short everything and the whole market.
$VIX above 20 be careful
A reminder not to turn immediately bullish when indices recover violently, because in market corrections and crashes, dead cat bounces are often big and sudden. Don't be fooled.
Note that it is easier and faster to make money in a crash compared to a bull market. Option premiums are higher because of volatility, bearish gamma squeeze etc.
I have been doing more intraday trading of options, and less of swing trading anymore. I made some lost some but I'm now at 34K. Still doing alright. I could have made more / lost less and I am trying to not overtrade too but I could have been at 40K right now if not for my stupid itchy fingers. There's always a lesson to be learnt.
Some lessons I have learnt:
- Don't fight the broader markets. IF markets are looking bearish, a related stock will likely catch on as well.
NYADYOR
-Solskjaer
RT @Solsk: Alright it's been awhile since I've done a broad market update. I also haven't really been following up on the charts including…
Solsk | Trading retweeted
$RDDT I know my drawings are ugly, but nothing is uglier than the price action. Once again, don't fight the momentum, this is not for buying. Down 30% in a week wtff
$RDDT I know my drawings are ugly, but nothing is uglier than the price action. Once again, don't fight the momentum, this is not for buying. Down 30% in a week wtff
Solsk | Trading retweeted
"Donald Trump and insiders bought $INTC WHY AREN'T YOU BUYING?" That was what Furus on X were spamming for their engagement farming back when it was close to $100. You will be down 20% TODAY if you followed along with many other AI names promoted by this echo chamber.
Take X with a pinch of salt, especially those that do engagement farming. Engagement farming is not = accuracy.
Since I am 90% cash, here's my honest assessment. Markets sold off so fcking steeply yesterday and now $QQQ is at sub $700 lows. $SPY teetering at $761 lows again. I woke up and I was so shocked to see a drop that drastic even after cutting my calls and longs.
This could be a make or break moment as I have mentioned previously. Breakdown of indices and we see a 10-20% crash in markets and AI names will say goodbye. I am not joking. Bounce and we could see ATH by EOY.
I don't really engage with people on X, I just trade quietly, provide my charting, and ignore all noise. I don't really care if my posts go viral or not. But I'm pretty sure this kind of contrarian view will not go viral because people don't like to hear uncomfortable truths about growth / trading / market view etc while engagement accounts continue to fool new traders and investors.
To each their own, but I rather stay true to myself. I hope people recognise my work and follow a more proper and objective advice. Hope you discover my X acc. Good luck trading, I have my own battles to fight. I'm trying to turn 25K into 1M.
NFADYOR
-Solskjaer
"Donald Trump and insiders bought $INTC WHY AREN'T YOU BUYING?" That was what Furus on X were spamming for their engagement farming back when it was close to $100. You will be down 20% TODAY if you followed along with many other AI names promoted by this echo chamber.
Take X with a pinch of salt, especially those that do engagement farming. Engagement farming is not = accuracy.
Since I am 90% cash, here's my honest assessment. Markets sold off so fcking steeply yesterday and now $QQQ is at sub $700 lows. $SPY teetering at $761 lows again. I woke up and I was so shocked to see a drop that drastic even after cutting my calls and longs.
This could be a make or break moment as I have mentioned previously. Breakdown of indices and we see a 10-20% crash in markets and AI names will say goodbye. I am not joking. Bounce and we could see ATH by EOY.
I don't really engage with people on X, I just trade quietly, provide my charting, and ignore all noise. I don't really care if my posts go viral or not. But I'm pretty sure this kind of contrarian view will not go viral because people don't like to hear uncomfortable truths about growth / trading / market view etc while engagement accounts continue to fool new traders and investors.
To each their own, but I rather stay true to myself. I hope people recognise my work and follow a more proper and objective advice. Hope you discover my X acc. Good luck trading, I have my own battles to fight. I'm trying to turn 25K into 1M.
NFADYOR
-Solskjaer
Solsk | Trading retweeted
Imagine a stock going from the top to the bottom of the channel in less than 1 trading day. That's $NOW and I called for $110 yesterday. Do you have the b4lls to buy right $NOW ? But honestly imagine being down 30% in a day wtf.
My assessment is that this super high volume selloff makes it super risky to buy here. We have seen how $CRWV broke out of the triangle consolidation in high volume and I called for it to break it's $60 support, and then it happened within days. We might see the same for $NOW as well. Volume is everything, it shows everyone rushing to gtfo of this stock.
$RDDT is taking a fcking beating as well. Don't fight the momentum. Don't buy the dip immediately.
I own 0 shares. My acc is at 34K after some stupid losses, otherwise I would be at 38K right now. Gotta go reflect but I'm thankful that overall, October has been a turnaround month for me amidst this entire selloff and market choppiness.
Just look at the blow off top for $NOW before a 20% crash. Hope nobody bought into earnings. Honestly with such a steep selloff on an average volume, $110 is likely.
The crash was so bad that other softwares also slid $CRM $WDAY
I'm having my fair share of losses for $BABA and $BIDU that took away last night's $1k gains from trading $IREN ffs. Somehow I just can't sync with China ADRs.
Imagine a stock going from the top to the bottom of the channel in less than 1 trading day. That's $NOW and I called for $110 yesterday. Do you have the b4lls to buy right $NOW ? But honestly imagine being down 30% in a day wtf.
My assessment is that this super high volume selloff makes it super risky to buy here. We have seen how $CRWV broke out of the triangle consolidation in high volume and I called for it to break it's $60 support, and then it happened within days. We might see the same for $NOW as well. Volume is everything, it shows everyone rushing to gtfo of this stock.
$RDDT is taking a fcking beating as well. Don't fight the momentum. Don't buy the dip immediately.
I own 0 shares. My acc is at 34K after some stupid losses, otherwise I would be at 38K right now. Gotta go reflect but I'm thankful that overall, October has been a turnaround month for me amidst this entire selloff and market choppiness.
Just look at the blow off top for $NOW before a 20% crash. Hope nobody bought into earnings. Honestly with such a steep selloff on an average volume, $110 is likely.
The crash was so bad that other softwares also slid $CRM $WDAY
I'm having my fair share of losses for $BABA and $BIDU that took away last night's $1k gains from trading $IREN ffs. Somehow I just can't sync with China ADRs.
Solsk | Trading retweeted
Just look at the blow off top for $NOW before a 20% crash. Hope nobody bought into earnings. Honestly with such a steep selloff on an average volume, $110 is likely.
The crash was so bad that other softwares also slid $CRM $WDAY
I'm having my fair share of losses for $BABA and $BIDU that took away last night's $1k gains from trading $IREN ffs. Somehow I just can't sync with China ADRs.
Just look at the blow off top for $NOW before a 20% crash. Hope nobody bought into earnings. Honestly with such a steep selloff on an average volume, $110 is likely.
The crash was so bad that other softwares also slid $CRM $WDAY
I'm having my fair share of losses for $BABA and $BIDU that took away last night's $1k gains from trading $IREN ffs. Somehow I just can't sync with China ADRs.
Unbelievably missing the 5 minute wick dip on $IREN during market open and being too afraid to chase the non-stop grind higher for the rest of the day has got to be the WORST FEELING EVER, worse than heartbreak...
I know I have caught multiple 10% stock moves on $IREN leveraged with calls and puts, but I can't believe I missed the biggest move just yet and most importantly, TREND REVERSAL. F*CK. How could I miss the biggest trend change??
I think there's a chance markets pull back into or after FOMC. There is a diagonal resistance for both $SPY and $QQQ that it is trailing and I'm uncomfortable to enter. But dips are for buying and I would load up on $IREN if it dips.
Telling myself that the markets will always present new opportunities every day but DAMN this $IREN green b0ner was the biggest missed opportunity thus far. I have to be sharp and alert as always. Lock tf in. Acc at 35K.
I am only in $BABA spot and $NIO calls right now.
NFADYOR
-Solskjaer
As I have warned in my previous post, $IREN just gave back half of it's green candle. It is still in a structural downtrend, trying to make higher highs on the lower timeframe (1H 4H). Really need indices especially $QQQ to make bullish moves or else the selloff continues. Only $QQQ and VOLDQ matters when trading $IREN. Let's wait for FOMC, or see how indices move. I will trade $IREN according to how $QQQ moves.
NFADYOR I do not own any shares nor calls right now. I closed all of them before market close last night. I have eaten a few of the rallies and escaped the subsequent selloffs so I'm g. Stay safe.
-Solskjaer
Solsk | Trading retweeted
As I have warned in my previous post, $IREN just gave back half of it's green candle. It is still in a structural downtrend, trying to make higher highs on the lower timeframe (1H 4H). Really need indices especially $QQQ to make bullish moves or else the selloff continues. Only $QQQ and VOLDQ matters when trading $IREN. Let's wait for FOMC, or see how indices move. I will trade $IREN according to how $QQQ moves.
NFADYOR I do not own any shares nor calls right now. I closed all of them before market close last night. I have eaten a few of the rallies and escaped the subsequent selloffs so I'm g. Stay safe.
-Solskjaer
Done for the day, up another 10% today. Here are my positions heading into FOMC - $BABA with bullish divergence and $TSLL $TSLA holding steady with daily close above 388.
I have closed all calls heading into FOMC. $SPY tagged the 200 1H EMA and gave back half of the green candle. Seeing bearish volume divergence for $SPY as well (see VOLD vs $SPY), $QQQ volume to price looking more resilient.
I'm also mostly out of $IREN already because I don't wanna hold this through FOMC. Today has been technically a 13% move from low to high, and every time it did that it gave back half to most of it's gains over the next few days (observing this behaviour during the AI selloff period, not during the bull period). Anyways, I'm happy I ate most of the big move and I don't need to catch every micro movement.
As I have warned in my previous post, $IREN just gave back half of it's green candle. It is still in a structural downtrend, trying to make higher highs on the lower timeframe (1H 4H). Really need indices especially $QQQ to make bullish moves or else the selloff continues. Only $QQQ and VOLDQ matters when trading $IREN. Let's wait for FOMC, or see how indices move. I will trade $IREN according to how $QQQ moves.
NFADYOR I do not own any shares nor calls right now. I closed all of them before market close last night. I have eaten a few of the rallies and escaped the subsequent selloffs so I'm g. Stay safe.
-Solskjaer
Done for the day, up another 10% today. Here are my positions heading into FOMC - $BABA with bullish divergence and $TSLL $TSLA holding steady with daily close above 388.
I have closed all calls heading into FOMC. $SPY tagged the 200 1H EMA and gave back half of the green candle. Seeing bearish volume divergence for $SPY as well (see VOLD vs $SPY), $QQQ volume to price looking more resilient.
I'm also mostly out of $IREN already because I don't wanna hold this through FOMC. Today has been technically a 13% move from low to high, and every time it did that it gave back half to most of it's gains over the next few days (observing this behaviour during the AI selloff period, not during the bull period). Anyways, I'm happy I ate most of the big move and I don't need to catch every micro movement.
I called $55 when $NFLX was at $72. Now it doesn't seem too impossible right? It's moving exactly as I drew, currently just broke new local lows. I'm seeing as low as round $60 here if you wanna use a descending support.
You had the chance to trim some profits / losses at the red line 50MA. Multiples, ratios, blabla are all thrown out of the window when there is weak TA. Don't listen to every FURU echo chamber on X.
Don't fade TA and don't ever get in the way of momentum.
NFADYOR
-Solskjaer
$NFLX I won't be surprised if Netflix visits $55 for a couple of reasons.
Technical Analysis:
- Structural downtrend
- Breakdown of rising 2Y trendline followed by a clean rejection downward (couldn't hold 100 EMA on Daily and 200 EMA on Weekly too and sold off strongly)
- This rejection is too sharp for me to validate a right shoulder of an inverse H&S
Next level to watch:
Fib extension shows that the next key level is $55, in line with a decent turning point for historical support and resistance. A slow trickle down to $55 will also make a massive RSI divergence on the weekly too!
Fundamental Take:
Bearish! And I will post quantitative and qualitative articles on this soon!
Disclaimer:
I'm not predicting this will happen and noone can predict the future. What we can do is prepare, and this is a level that I have my eyes on for a long swing and position trade!
NFADYOR, follow for more and stay smart.
P.S. Remember not to get mixed up between swing trading, position trading, and long term investing!
-Solskjaer
Solsk | Trading retweeted
Done for the day, up another 10% today. Here are my positions heading into FOMC - $BABA with bullish divergence and $TSLL $TSLA holding steady with daily close above 388.
I have closed all calls heading into FOMC. $SPY tagged the 200 1H EMA and gave back half of the green candle. Seeing bearish volume divergence for $SPY as well (see VOLD vs $SPY), $QQQ volume to price looking more resilient.
I'm also mostly out of $IREN already because I don't wanna hold this through FOMC. Today has been technically a 13% move from low to high, and every time it did that it gave back half to most of it's gains over the next few days (observing this behaviour during the AI selloff period, not during the bull period). Anyways, I'm happy I ate most of the big move and I don't need to catch every micro movement.
Done for the day, up another 10% today. Here are my positions heading into FOMC - $BABA with bullish divergence and $TSLL $TSLA holding steady with daily close above 388.
I have closed all calls heading into FOMC. $SPY tagged the 200 1H EMA and gave back half of the green candle. Seeing bearish volume divergence for $SPY as well (see VOLD vs $SPY), $QQQ volume to price looking more resilient.
I'm also mostly out of $IREN already because I don't wanna hold this through FOMC. Today has been technically a 13% move from low to high, and every time it did that it gave back half to most of it's gains over the next few days (observing this behaviour during the AI selloff period, not during the bull period). Anyways, I'm happy I ate most of the big move and I don't need to catch every micro movement.