Solsk | Trading

Would be lovely if $APP falls to $200+. Yes it has strong top-line growth. Yes it has strong margins. Yes it has strong EBITDA margins. Yes it has strong FCF generation. But markets are always a discounting mechanism for the future. Ignore those that use plain multiples, ignore those that use - XYZ % from ATH. Those are lagging metrics. A stock price is a reflection of market expectations. AppLovin couldn't meet an impossibly high and perfect execution standards set by Wall Street, hence the stock price (almost -60% from ATH). Technical downside would not be surprising. And remember, a company's fundamentals can still improve while its stock price continues marching downward. $APP is a classic "show-me story". A structural turnaround will take time, and it certainly won't happen over a single quarter. 3 things that the management needs to do: - Deploy the AI Creative Suite - Prove AXON Model's success in the E-Com space - Show meaningful, sequential expansion in e-commerce revenue to offset tapering gaming growth NFADYOR, I do not own any shares. But I may look to enter at $220.

$RDDT I know my drawings are ugly, but nothing is uglier than the price action. Once again, don't fight the momentum, this is not for buying. Down 30% in a week wtff

"Donald Trump and insiders bought $INTC WHY AREN'T YOU BUYING?" That was what Furus on X were spamming for their engagement farming back when it was close to $100. You will be down 20% TODAY if you followed along with many other AI names promoted by this echo chamber. Take X with a pinch of salt, especially those that do engagement farming. Engagement farming is not = accuracy. Since I am 90% cash, here's my honest assessment. Markets sold off so fcking steeply yesterday and now $QQQ is at sub $700 lows. $SPY teetering at $761 lows again. I woke up and I was so shocked to see a drop that drastic even after cutting my calls and longs. This could be a make or break moment as I have mentioned previously. Breakdown of indices and we see a 10-20% crash in markets and AI names will say goodbye. I am not joking. Bounce and we could see ATH by EOY. I don't really engage with people on X, I just trade quietly, provide my charting, and ignore all noise. I don't really care if my posts go viral or not. But I'm pretty sure this kind of contrarian view will not go viral because people don't like to hear uncomfortable truths about growth / trading / market view etc while engagement accounts continue to fool new traders and investors. To each their own, but I rather stay true to myself. I hope people recognise my work and follow a more proper and objective advice. Hope you discover my X acc. Good luck trading, I have my own battles to fight. I'm trying to turn 25K into 1M. NFADYOR -Solskjaer

Imagine a stock going from the top to the bottom of the channel in less than 1 trading day. That's $NOW and I called for $110 yesterday. Do you have the b4lls to buy right $NOW ? But honestly imagine being down 30% in a day wtf. My assessment is that this super high volume selloff makes it super risky to buy here. We have seen how $CRWV broke out of the triangle consolidation in high volume and I called for it to break it's $60 support, and then it happened within days. We might see the same for $NOW as well. Volume is everything, it shows everyone rushing to gtfo of this stock. $RDDT is taking a fcking beating as well. Don't fight the momentum. Don't buy the dip immediately. I own 0 shares. My acc is at 34K after some stupid losses, otherwise I would be at 38K right now. Gotta go reflect but I'm thankful that overall, October has been a turnaround month for me amidst this entire selloff and market choppiness.

Just look at the blow off top for $NOW before a 20% crash. Hope nobody bought into earnings. Honestly with such a steep selloff on an average volume, $110 is likely. The crash was so bad that other softwares also slid $CRM $WDAY I'm having my fair share of losses for $BABA and $BIDU that took away last night's $1k gains from trading $IREN ffs. Somehow I just can't sync with China ADRs.

As I have warned in my previous post, $IREN just gave back half of it's green candle. It is still in a structural downtrend, trying to make higher highs on the lower timeframe (1H 4H). Really need indices especially $QQQ to make bullish moves or else the selloff continues. Only $QQQ and VOLDQ matters when trading $IREN. Let's wait for FOMC, or see how indices move. I will trade $IREN according to how $QQQ moves. NFADYOR I do not own any shares nor calls right now. I closed all of them before market close last night. I have eaten a few of the rallies and escaped the subsequent selloffs so I'm g. Stay safe. -Solskjaer

Done for the day, up another 10% today. Here are my positions heading into FOMC - $BABA with bullish divergence and $TSLL $TSLA holding steady with daily close above 388. I have closed all calls heading into FOMC. $SPY tagged the 200 1H EMA and gave back half of the green candle. Seeing bearish volume divergence for $SPY as well (see VOLD vs $SPY), $QQQ volume to price looking more resilient. I'm also mostly out of $IREN already because I don't wanna hold this through FOMC. Today has been technically a 13% move from low to high, and every time it did that it gave back half to most of it's gains over the next few days (observing this behaviour during the AI selloff period, not during the bull period). Anyways, I'm happy I ate most of the big move and I don't need to catch every micro movement.

$IREN YOU CAN DO THIS GOGOGO higher volume green bar. Strong 1H MA reclaim. If indices sustain rally into FOMC we eating steak wine and shit. Neoclouds $CRWV $NBIS will rip hard if they recover. Their selloff has just been too brutal. I am in $IREN calls and will continue to monitor. NFADYOR -Solskjaer

$IREN is an example of why having market feels is important and I managed to escape unscathed once again. Market feels = I'm talking about market structures and micro movements of broader indices, then tracking the target stock movements simultaneously. Last Friday, $IREN rejected sharply at the 200 MA on 15 min (a literal 60 cents rejection in just 1 candle see tagged post) while $QQQ was grinding up. This means that generally if $QQQ were to even slide down by a bit after that grind up, $IREN will selloff sharply. To add on, VOLD (for $SPY) and VOLDQ ($QQQ) was negative and trending down = bearish volume divergence on broader markets. And look at $IREN now, at $24.90. It went from being up almost 5% at one point to down 2+% at the end of the day. But that's not to say that $IREN will be a bad long when market recovers. It can suddenly become a relative strength leader if something causes a shift in liquidity back into this sector + high beta name. One example is what it did during Friday pre-market up 3+% in a "rising tide lifts all boats play". Important reminder to never ever isolate your view to individual stocks. Watch what the indices are doing, sector wide if an ETF exists, then peer stocks, and then individual stocks. Know what are they, and then watch all of them at the same time. The more info you can handle at one time, the better your judgement will be on your trades (assuming you are objective). This helps with position sizing / choosing direction if you are day / position trading. Even better if you have dealer positioning like GEX and VEX and you will be able to guesstimate how the stock will move over the next few days + reaction to price levels (muted / fast volatile). If you have any additional inputs to day trading options, feel free to share as well. Always happy to learn more. One sentence takeaway: Don't fade market clues, and when you have conviction, execute without hesitation. NFADYOR -Solskjaer

Yea $IREN is weak af. Sold my calls for small profit at $26 cuz the rejection wick was bad relative to $QQQ movement. As you can see $QQQ is still grinding up while $IREN rejected. Am fully 100% cash. I wanna enjoy my date. Good luck to all.

Is anyone even green this month? How's your portfolio doing so far? Mine is +9% and at ATH for this account. AI really shedding lots of fat. Be safe out there. Honestly, starting options and trading bi-directionally has brought more benefits. Options provide magnified returns and capital efficiency when utilized properly. Long-only gives you a dangerous bias where you start believing every name will go to infinity based on numbers and multiples pulled out of a random person's ass, coupled with the echo chamber on X. You end up constantly trying to time the final bottom and trapped in hopium instead of reality. Account 25K is now at 32.2K. I'm so close to 1M. I know it might be small gains, but watch compounding... I'm back officially and ready to lock tf in NFADYOR -Solskjaer

$IREN Holding options overnight probably has to be the most nerve wrecking thing because Trump can just fart and the market goes south, and then sneeze and the market goes north. $IREN Stock is up 1% overnight. Weekly it is at 200 MA. Hopefully we see a mean reversion tech bounce. Statistically speaking, almost a -3% down day on $QQQ is super rare and precedes a stabilization or sharp bounce (dead cat or actual bottom who knows). I'm fckin banking that if tech recovers this high beta neocloud is gonna rip harder than my parents beat me when I was a kid. $VIX surprisingly closed below 20 and markets recovered a little in the final 15 minutes before close. $SOXX and $SMH are also very very near the 200D MA and every FURU is feeling pain and shitting on AI names. If this is the bottom we needa bounce from here... 7.5 more hours to go til i find out whether my calls make or break

I am in $IREN calls 1 mth strike $28 now. 1 more minute to market close if markets close hammer style we can bounce

Ready for the flush? We are seeing lots of pain pre-market especially AI names. Some are fcking down 5-8% today. $QQQ $SPY broke their descending channels (refer to post) and now retesting the lower trendline as we wait for market to open. Make or break here. Watch carefully. Waiting for $IREN to go long or short depending on markets. Either we break or bounce from descending 1Y trendline

$BABA we are finally here, at the 3 year rising trendline. Do we make or break here? $KWEB

$IREN I have 0 positions and 100% cash. I closed all my calls yesterday (I left a comment on the tagged post) because indices $IWM $QQQ had nasty rejections at 2 o clock after flirting at their resistances. $SPY $QQQ are looking to pull back to the bottom of their channels (inserted qqq as an example). This will bring markets down and likely a flush for $IREN I'm seeing a 4H RSI divergence for $IREN looks like a bounce is due especially when we are on a 1 year descending trendline. I'm really just waiting for a quick flush and recovery tonight and I will load up on calls. As long as it leaves daily hammers and close into the weekly as a hammer on descending trendline, should be bullish. Let's hope it doesn't pull a $WDC move. Fortunate to escape my calls unscathed, up about 2.2% on my account last night. In options focus on the main move and you don't have to capture the full move. The volatility in options is already nervewrecking enough. Few. NFADYOR -Solskjaer