Spikey Scabiosa 💙🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

The Democratic blue wave in the Congress and Senate means Burnham can now exercise serious influence over the potential war in Iran. If he doesn't exercise it now and to its fullest extent, it may end up seriously (even fatally) undermining the success of his political project. The US results are a clear repudiation of Trump's foreign policy, both his mad war in Iran and his unstinting support for Israel. The former has spiked gas prices and driven up the cost of living and has alienated Trump supporters who believed he would end foreign wars. At the same time, Netanyahu is fighting for his political life. He sees a resumption of the war in Israel as key to staying out jail and holding onto power. Reports in Israel have alleged that he has put serious pressure on military chiefs to restart strikes (that they resisted during Israeli elections). Israel is now trying a ham-fisted gambit of linking Iran to chemical WMDs to force the US' hand. Trump has been mercurial as ever, with briefings every few days suggesting a major escalation followed by backtracking. Trump is a vastly awful human being, but he has an exceptional political antenna. He will know that the War in Iran and closeness to Israel are becoming politically toxic; but his own narcissism and hubris, alongside the input of his insane millenarian advisors like Hegseth, might mean he's unwilling to accept defeat and be open to a huge new blitzkrieg campaign. If Trump does go to war, it would be a disaster for the world. Iran will escalate everywhere across the region and maybe even in the UK and Europe. Iran appears to have the will and capacity to start attacking civilian energy, tech and transport infrastructure throughout the Middle East. The Houthis will advance strikes on Saudi oil lines. Iranian oil production would tank. Maritime traffic would halt. Oil prices will skyrocket and push up the cost of living everywhere, including the UK. Russia will be emboldened as it is possible European countries will forgive his illegal, vicious war in Ukraine in order to access cheap Russian energy. All of this will happen in the context of a super El-Nino that is going to cause huge disruption and havoc in the next year. Projections by the Resolution Foundation and Joseph Rowntree already predict that living standards will fall this Parliament, driven largely by energy price increases. Resolution yesterday called the projections catastrophic. Oil prices are already higher than the OBR's "middle" scenario. A new war will cause an economic and cost-of-living crisis that will plummet families into hardship. It is hard to see how Burnham mitigates any of this, trapped by the fiscal rules, a paint-by-numbers Chancellor and Labour's dishonest 2024 Manifesto. And if he can't, he will be punished, just as any government will be punished if they oversee a historic decline in living standards. The absolute priority for Burnham now must be to use every lever he has to stop the war in Iran. He must use this moment to do what other PMs have always refused - make a clear, total break from US foreign policy in the Middle East. Practically, he could withdraw permission to use UK bases to attack Iran, limit air-to-air refuelling support, and close off bases like RAF Akotiri. It would no doubt create a huge ruckus. Trump will tub-thump. But it is quite likely that very many members of the US security establishment might secretly be quite relieved if they can avoid catastrophe in Iran, and even our own right-wing understand that supporting the war in Iran would be toxic. The US could still go to war without the UK - but it would be much harder. It might just be the thing that pushes Trump away from conflict. Progressive Democrats in the US have amazingly, remarkably, shifted the political terrain. They have given Burnham an opportunity to save his own skin. But will he have the nous, or the guts, to take it?