Applied Science/ Computer Science Major (Business minor) 1979-1982. Family, freedom, liberty, humanity , wilderness, surfing, mindfulness, #Bitcoin
Melbourne, Victoria
Joined April 2009
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#BITCOIN is a monetary technology which is largely being adopted by young adults & the tech savvy. It’s rapidly outperforming other savings and investment options. Whatever happens, things are shifting quickly, rapidly improving their financial position.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
even fidelity's macro guy is still picking bitcoin over gold
nitter.cf/TimmerFidelity/status/…
Diminishing returns?
The last “dampened” cycle rose from a low of $15700 to $126000, approx a $110k increase.
The cycle before that went from $3,200 to $67,000, a $64k increase.
The cycle before about a $19k increase.
Just say’n.
Nfa.
mnav.com/charts/bitcoin-powe…
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
$BTC is almost 39% below its ATH and people are still waiting for a perfect entry
look at the previous cycles
2016 → bottom came roughly 500 days before halving
2020 → almost the same timing
2024 → btc went from $26K to $73K before halving
now we’re heading toward the next one in 2028
not saying it’s guaranteed, but buying btc when everyone is excited has never been the easy trade
the fire sale usually doesn’t feel like a fire sale until it’s over
#Btc #Crypto
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Number of years Bitcoin had gone before hitting a new ATH
Nov 2013 → Feb 2017: about 3.3 years.
Dec 2017 → Dec 2020: about 3 years.
Nov 2021 → Mar 2024: about 2.3 years.
March 2024 → to now about 2.6 years.
Are we due?
Hodl
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
During the 2020-21 bull run bitcoin was trading significantly higher than fair value (green line) during a large portion of the cycle.
During the 2024-2025 bull run bitcoin barely even touched fair value and has been stuck between the support (red line) and fair value channel since 2022.
Today we’re sitting only 11% above support and a trip to resistance (purple line) would require a 771% price surge.
Bitcoin historically spends very little time near this red line and in the last 4 years has barely broken fair value.
No model is perfect but sentiment right now feels exactly the same as this chart: people have lost money and hope and are beginning to get bored and fearful with current market conditions.
What’s most important to me is that while price is only 9% higher today than at the 2021 peak, our position in these channels is hugely different than 5 years ago.
There’s a ton of open space above us right now and bitcoin is just waiting for the right conditions to start taking back off again.
Disclosure: my entire net worth is exposed to bitcoin and this is not financial advice.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
DESPITE the following, Bitcoin's network has GROWN by >10 billion× in terms of hashrate, and >250 thousand× in terms of price, since the end of 2010:
2008–09 financial crisis (Bitcoin launched during it)
2010 overflow bug
2011 Mt. Gox hack
2010–13 European debt crisis and Cyprus bail-in
2013 Silk Road shutdown
2014 Mt. Gox collapse
2015 Greek capital controls and China stock crash
2016 Bitfinex hack
2017 China exchange ban
2018 crypto crash (−84%)
2020 COVID crash
2021 China mining ban
2022 inflation spike and Fed rate hikes
2022 Russia–Ukraine war
2022 Terra/Luna, Celsius and FTX collapses
2023 US bank failures (SVB, Signature)
2023 SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase
2025 tariff shock
Oct 2025 record liquidation crash
Early 2026 crash to about $58K
Oct 2026 $6.3B Binance hack
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
$BTC: Buying Bitcoin at $76K Today Delivers a 29% CAGR Simply by Reaching Its Projected P10 Lower Valuation Band in 2 Years.
Buying at $76K today:
In 2 years:
P10: $126K | 29% CAGR (today's ATH)
Trend: $265K | 87% CAGR
In 8 years:
P10: $670K | 8.8× | 31% CAGR
Trend: $1.4M | 18.4× | 44% CAGR
How robust is P10?
Across 5,225 historical walk-forward days, Bitcoin closed above P10 88.9% of the time, without look-ahead bias.
Important insight: Bitcoin doesn't need to reach its projected fair value to deliver extraordinary returns. Merely reaching its rising lower valuation band could generate ~30% annually.
Forecasts assume Bitcoin's historical adaption based power-law growth continues.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Too late?
A quick back of the napkin calc shows the floor price is growing at an increasing dollar value each year despite the reducing percentage.
With the current price being so close the the floor, we at a zone not seen for 4 years. What a time!
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Yes, understanding why someone sees the world differently doesn't mean all perceptions are equally valid. Perhaps the challenge is learning to distinguish between what feels true and what withstands scrutiny. What helps us remain open to correction when our identity is at stake?
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Thomas,
I think $BTC runs on two clocks.
Short-term price is difficult to predict. But my adoption-based power-law model has demonstrated strong out-of-sample predictive signals over 12+ months.
Today: $76K vs. $145K trend. In 12 months, that trend approaches $200K.
I see a good probability of BTC catching its rising trend within a year.
Obama, Trump, Biden. Recessions, inflation, rate hikes, liquidity shocks. Bitcoin's organic adoption has continued through all of them.
Macro changes the path, not the underlying adoption trajectory. Governments change, monetary policies reverse, economies expand and contract. But Bitcoin continues to attract adoption against a fixed 21M supply.
That's the remarkable part: 17 years of growth through virtually every macroeconomic environment.
I'm expecting a meaningful rally before year-end. That's when the Screaming Eagle opens.
My deterministic mean-reversion scenario puts $127K around April 25, 2027, conditional on the historical relationship holding.
The macro clock is unpredictable. Bitcoin's longer term adoption clock has been remarkably predictable.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
$BTC: Today’s $126K All-Time High Becomes the P10 Lower Valuation Band in 24 Months, A 29% Annualized Return From Today’s $76K Price.
Bitcoin today:
Price: $76K
P10: $69K
Power-law trend: $145K
If the historical power law continues:
3½ months: P10 reaches $76K.
24 months: P10 reaches $126K; trend ~$265K.
Buying at $76K, those 24-month scenarios imply:
P10: 29% CAGR
Trend: 87% CAGR
How robust is P10?
Across 5,225 historical walk-forward days, Bitcoin breached P10 just 576 times (11.0%), remarkably close to its 10% target.
The historical test uses no future price information.
The math: P10 ∝ Time^5.61.
The economics: Adoption expands. Supply is capped at 21M.
The insight: Bitcoin's price can go nowhere while its historical lower valuation band keeps rising.
Today's record high could become tomorrow's lower-band valuation.
Buy the lows.
It's the low risk option with the greatest upside.
4 years ago it was just $15.7k, and $3.2K at the low before that. $Btc $Bitcoin
Buy the lows.
It's the low risk option with the greatest upside.
4 years ago it was just $15.7k, and $3.2K at the low before that.
