The Sharp Society

15 Key Stats to Know Before Betting on the Week 7 NFL Slate 🏈 1. The Colts will be without superstar cornerback Sauce Gardner this week, which sets up Justin Jefferson to dominate in this matchup. With Gardner out, I’m expecting the Colts defense to lean more heavily into Cover 2 and Cover 3. Against those coverages this season, Jefferson is averaging 3.47 YPRR with a 0.37 TPRR. Additionally, the Colts’ passing defense hasn’t been great this season, ranking 21st in EPA (0.02) and 20th in success rate (44.7%). As Kyler Murray gets more familiar with KOC’s scheme, I’m expecting the Vikings’ passing offense to continue improving. 2. Chuba Hubbard draws a tough matchup this week against a Bucs rush defense that has been excellent this year. Through six games, the Bucs rush defense ranks 3rd in EPA allowed (-0.19), 5th in success rate (36.8%), and 2nd in YPC allowed (3.49). Now let’s look at how the Bucs defend zone concepts. Against zone concepts this season, they are allowing 4.03 YPC with a 45.9% success rate. That’s significant because 62.9% of Hubbard’s rushes this season have come on zone concepts. Additionally, the Bucs have used a heavy box on 31.5% of their defensive snaps. I don’t expect Hubbard to have much success on the ground in this matchup. 3. Chris Olave gets a sneaky matchup this week against a Steelers defense that has run a ton of Cover 3/4 (60.7% rate) over the past month. Against Cover 3/4 this season, Olave is averaging 3.16 YPRR with a 0.34 TPRR. He also owns a 40.8% first-read share against those coverages. 4. Woody Marks is set to have himself a day against a Giants rush defense that has been atrocious this season. Through six games, the Giants rush defense rank 29th in EPA allowed (0.00), 26th in success rate (44.1%), 31st in YPC allowed (5.05), and 24th in stuff rate (18.4%). Additionally, the Giants have really struggled against man/gap concepts, allowing 4.98 YPC and a 52.5% success rate on those rushes. That’s significant because 62.1% of Marks’ rushes this year have come on man/gap concepts. With the Texans favored by 10.5 points, Marks should also get a favorable game script. 5. The Raiders defense has really struggled to stop the run this year when teams are in 13 personnel. Opponents are averaging 5.32 YPC against the Raiders out of 13 personnel, and the Raiders own just a 32.1% success rate when defending those rushes. That’s significant because the Rams are running 13 personnel at the highest rate in the league (31%). With Davante Adams out and Puka Nacua questionable with a calf injury, I’m expecting the Rams to lean heavily on 13 personnel. That sets up Kyren Williams for a big day—he’s averaging 5.33 YPC this year out of 13 personnel. In a game the Rams desperately need a win, I expect Sean McVay to lean on his ground game. 6. Carnell Tate is set up for success against a Browns defense that has run 1-high looks at a 75.8% rate over the past month. Tate is averaging 2.32 YPRR with a 0.29 TPRR against Cover 1/3 this year. With the Titans’ run game likely to struggle, I expect Tate to cook. (The Browns are also getting Mason Graham back, which should help their run defense.) 7. Tucker Kraft gets an excellent matchup this week against a Lions defense that is allowing the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in the league. Over the past month, the Lions have run Cover 1/3 at a 59.5% rate. Against 1-high looks this year, Kraft is averaging 1.61 YPRR with a 0.24 TPRR. With the Lions’ passing defense ranking 29th in success rate (49.4%) and 29th in EPA (0.20), I expect Kraft to cook on National Tight Ends Day. The Lions do get star safety Brian Branch back, but Branch isn’t going to line up against Kraft. 8. The Falcons are allowing the third-most targets to opposing running backs this season, which sets Christian McCaffrey up to dominate this spot. With Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel out, McCaffrey should lead the 49ers pass-catchers in targets. Over the past month, the Falcons have primarily operated in Cover 1/3/4 (83.1% rate). Against those coverages, CMC is averaging 0.21 TPRR. In a game where the 49ers’ offense might struggle to move the ball, he should be Brock Purdy’s safety valve. 9. Malik Washington gets a sneaky matchup this week against a Jets defense that has run a ton of Cover 1/2 over the past month (41.7% rate). Against those coverages, Washington is averaging 2.0 YPRR with a 0.47 TPRR. Additionally, Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is expected to shadow him, and Brownlee has struggled in coverage this year (104.4 passer rating allowed when targeted). In a likely trailing game script, Washington should see a decent amount of targets. 10. The Bengals’ rush defense has struggled in one specific area this season: allowing explosive runs. Through six weeks, they are allowing an 18.8% explosive run rate and have given up 371 yards on those runs. That’s significant because Derrick Henry owns a 13% explosive run rate this year and has already gained 213 yards on those runs. 11. Jaylen Warren is set up for success against a Saints defense that has struggled against the run. Through six games, the Saints rank 31st in success rate (47.4%), 32nd in EPA (0.04), and 28th in YPC allowed (4.79). They have also really struggled against man/gap concepts, allowing 5.06 YPC with a 62.3% success rate. Warren is averaging 5.26 YPC on man/gap rushes this year. 12. Mike Macdonald’s defense has done an excellent job limiting pass explosives this season. Through six games, the Seahawks rank 2nd in EPA per pass (-0.19) and 1st in YPA allowed (5.23). Xavier Worthy looks like the Chiefs pass-catcher most likely to struggle—he owns just a 4.14 aDOT and is averaging only 1.5 YPRR against Cover 4/6 this year. That’s relevant because the Seahawks have run Cover 4/6 at a 47.1% rate over the past month. With the Seahawks allowing the fewest receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, I don’t expect Worthy to have much success. 13. If Patrick Surtain is unable to play this week, Michael Wilson is set to have himself a day. Against Cover 1/3/6 this year, Wilson is averaging 1.6 YPRR with a 0.28 TPRR and owns a 32.6% first-read share against those coverages. In a favorable game script, he should thrive if Surtain is out. 14. Jonathan Taylor gets a difficult matchup this week against a Vikings defense that has been excellent against the run. Through six weeks, the Vikings rank 2nd in success rate (33.3%), 8th in EPA (-0.16), and 6th in YAC per attempt allowed (0.85). What makes the Vikings rush defense so good is that they blitz at the highest rate in the league (66.7%). Against zone concepts, Brian Flores’ defense is allowing just 2.97 YPC with a 36.4% success rate. Nearly 60% of Taylor’s rushes this year have come on zone concepts. In a likely trailing game script, I expect the Colts to lean more on Daniel Jones’ arm in this game. 15. After 673 days, Tank Dell is back, and I really like an angle for him in this matchup against the Giants. I expect him to get a designed target, especially with his entire family in attendance. Dell himself said: “I don’t care if the first catch is two yards, five yards, I’m spiking a ball, I’m doing what I got to do. It’s going to feel good. I know there’s a lot of questions like, ‘How is he going to look when he gets tackled?’ I don’t care about any of that. I’m ready to get tackled. I’m going to be joyful. You all are going to see the passion I have after I have that first catch.” Additionally, through 6 games the Giants defense has allowed 59 targets to the slot. Regardless, as a fan of the sport, I’m glad to see Tank Dell back from that gruesome injury. Thanks for reading my Week 7 notes ❤️