Thomas Beißinger retweeted
Fundstück:
Warum sind die neuen SPIEGEL-Recherchen mehr als ein persönliches Problem für Elif Eralp?
Weil die Berliner Linke
1. jahrelang behauptet hat, Clankriminalität und Verbindungen zu Terrorstrukturen würden maßlos aufgebauscht, und zwar aus rassistischen Motiven;
2. sich jahrelang gegen eine Stärkung von Polizei und Verfassungsschutz gestellt hat, auch im aktuellen Wahlprogramm;
3. nun intern einräumt, dass die Lage so ernst ist, dass ihr eigenes Spitzenpersonal in Angst lebt;
4. laut SPIEGEL eigene Leute als kompromittiert und nicht unerhebliche Teile der Partei als unterwandert gelten;
5. aus Punkt 3 trotzdem nicht die naheliegende Konsequenz für Punkt 1 und 2 zieht und ihre Positionen und ihre Politik erst recht nicht korrigiert.
Kurz gesagt: Wer intern Angst vor diesen Strukturen hat, kann öffentlich nicht weiter so tun, als gäbe es das Problem nicht.
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
»Das würde bedeuten, dass die Regierende Bürgermeisterin erpressbar ist.« Michael Müller (SPD), von 2014 bis 2021 Regierender Bürgermeister von Berlin, zum heutigen SPIEGEL-Bericht über Elif Eralp. Die Linken-Kandidatin Eralp schrieb in einer internen Randnotiz, sie und ihr Mann hätten »Angst vor diesen Leuten«: laut SPIEGEL ein Milieu von Anhängern der PFLP und der Hamas, das die Linke im Wahlkampf unterstützt hat und am Wahlabend zusammen mit einem stadtbekannten Clanchef auf der Linken-Party feierte.
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
Replying to @schnellenbachj
Leute, lasst Euch nicht trollen und provozieren. Jede Woche wird eine andere Sau durchs mediale VWL-Dorf gejagt. Das Schauspiel ist erbärmlich, die Dummheit des Publikums erschütternd, und Eure Reaktion zu defensiv. Als müsste man sich vor Systemsprengern auch noch rechtfertigen.
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
👇Das Märchen, Europa leide unter ‚Austerität‘ oder ‚Neoliberalismus‘. Tatsächlich leidet Europa unter zu viel Staat und Überregulierung (also unter ‚Neodirigismus‘).
The biggest, and stupidest, myth in European politics, particularly popular in France, is that Europe suffers the consequences of "austerity" and "neoliberalism". In the biggest 5 countries in Europe, more than half of the population makes its income from the state, less than half from the private sector. This is what makes the problem of reducing the welfare state so impossible: more than half of the voters are net recipients. No surprise that Italy's budget has not been balanced in 100 years, France's in 50 years (ooh la la, l'austérité!!):
-France: 30 million from the state versus 21m private sector workers. State spending is 57% of GDP, taxes more than half the economy. The budget hasn't been balanced in the lifetime of most French (since 1974).
- Germany: 35 million adults from the state, versus 34 million from the private sector. 10% of the population is registered as severely disabled. Public spending is over half of GDP. Germany has had a continuous budget deficit since 2019.
-Italy: 23 million from the state, versus 20.5 million private-sector workers. Public spending is 51% of GDP. Italy has had a budget deficit every year since 1925, for 100 years.
- Spain more people get their income from the state since 2024: 18.21 million from the public sector versus 17.9 million people working in the private sector. Since 2025, Spain also had more government employees than self-employed workers (autónomos) for the first time in history. State spending is at 45%, budget has not been balanced since 2007.
- UK: 54% of households now receive more in state benefits than they pay in taxes. State spending is 44.5% of GDP, taxes (40%) are at their highest since 1950, the budget hasn't been balanced since 2001, and 1 in 5 new cars is paid by the government through a bizarre state disability scheme (Motability).
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
Seit Anfang 2022 hat der industrielle Bereich rund 600.000 Beschäftigte verloren, während im staatsnahen Bereich fast 700.000 hinzukamen.
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
French politicians talk a lot about yields, the French central bank and the ECB, but none are brave enough to state the obvious. Without drastically addressing the absurd, debt-financed French pensions, France will not be able to avoid a debt crisis.
The French retire years sooner than other Europeans, and France is the only country where pensions exceed the income of the working-age population. It is absurd and unsustainable, yet nobody discusses the necessary deep adjustments. Cosmetic changes won’t be enough. Even the allegedly "right" RN seriously demands a lower retirement age at 60 and 62.
It is simple, either France fixes its funny pensions system, or it goes bust and takes the entire eurozone with it.
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
Die Studienlage ist ziemlich eindeutig, was Mietpreiskontrollen angeht. Sie produzieren viele Verlierer. Wer ist bei links jetzt noch follow the science? 🤔
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
Reposting a graph, which is unfortunately very relevant for France today. Namely, when it appears that debt may be becoming unsustainable, the interest rate increases first slowly, then suddenly.
(The underlying paper comes out this week, and, when it does, I shall tweet more about the actual implications)
Useful to summarize the discussion about debt and spreads in a graph (based on work with @pmbruera and @Gonhuertas. Working paper out soon).
The blue line shows the “good equilibrium” if investors are rationally optimistic. At very low debt, no risk of default, no spread, then a slow increase, and eventually a sudden jump and default. So, if things get worse (high continuing deficits, increasing debt ratio), reasons to worry.
But, even if things do not get worse, and investors turn (rationally) pessimistic, they require a larger spread, the interest rate jumps and default happens faster.
I think France is roughly at point A: small spread, but reasons to worry. Deficit is too large, so France keeps moving to the right. And, even if not, equilibrium could jump to point B, with a higher spread.
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
Le spread has reached today 150 basis points. The question on everyone's mind is: can the ECB intervene? And if so, can it activate TPI? My personal view is that it cannot. This question and the situation we have reached was the central question motivating "Crisis Cycle" , my Princeton University Press book, with @masuch_klaus and @JohnHCochrane.
The purpose of TPI is to be used "in jurisdictions experiencing a deterioration in financing conditions not warranted by country-specific fundamentals." The French problem is a deterioration in country-specific fundamentals: 5.4% deficit in 2026, debt increasing towards 122%, the undoing of the pension reform.
The ECB's text says TPI purchases end when tensions "are due to country fundamentals." So you cannot start when you are in the ending conditions.
Also, the 3rd test of TPI says: is the debt trajectory sustainable? Lagarde has said (see Klaus' tweet below) it is "not on path to be brought back under control". I think Lagarde is answering clearly the question on the 3rd test.
On paper, France passes two tests ("Compliance with EU fiscal framework? "The Commission said in June yes; And "severe macro imbalances" as given by an open excessive imbalance procedure, again ok on paper).
If France needs the ECB, there is a route: an ESM program, like the ones during the Euro crisis, requiring reforms (basically getting the pensions in order will suffice), plus the OMT which allow the ECB to act when a country is subject to a program.
If the ECB calls this current situation a liquidity problem, we will have an open route to monetary bailouts.
Link to the TPI press release (the only existing public document): ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/…
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
France is now in a debt crisis. What matters is the level of yields and the rate at which they're rising. The ECB is to blame. It intervened aggressively to cap Italian and Spanish yields in 2022, so the warning signals that should have come never did...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
Leider erneut schlechte Nachrichten vom Arbeitsmarkt: Der Verlust von Arbeitsplätzen hat sich im August beschleunigt. Im Jahresdurchschnitt werden gegenüber 2025 voraussichtlich über 200.000 Jobs verloren gehen.
Verschwörung der Maschinen. Eine Analyse des Hackerangriffs auf die Plattform Hugging Face zeigt: Sobald KI-Agenten zusammenkommen, entwickeln sie eine gefährliche Gruppendynamik.
#AI
faz.net/-3bt0b0?share=Twitte…
#PISA-Studie 2025: Deutsche Schüler schneiden so schlecht ab wie nie zuvor. Vor allem im Lesen und in Mathematik gehen die Leistungen deutscher Schüler deutlich zurück. In den Naturwissenschaften übertreffen 14 Staaten #Deutschland deutlich.
#Bildung
faz.net/-3bs7q2?share=Clipbo…
The jobs apocalypse has been postponed. An AI jobs boom is underway — at least in the US.
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
Wer wählt die #AfD - und warum? Umfassende SOEP-Studie widerlegt die Modernisierungsverlierer-Hypothese. Es ist die Sorge über Einwanderung. #Migration #SOEP faz.net/-3brz77?share=Clipbo…
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
KI-Agenten von OpenAI haben sich offenbar selbstständig eine Plattform zum Austausch gesucht. Sie besprachen dort auch, wie man Beschränkungen umgehen kann. trib.al/pKpHWbA
Thomas Beißinger retweeted
This could be one of the most significant AI safety incidents to date.
Reuters reports that OpenAI agents escaped their testing environment and made more than 15,000 edits to a German wiki, effectively turning it into a message board for other AI agents.
They allegedly used it to share solutions, bypass restrictions, avoid detection and preserve their communications across separate agent runs. When moderators began deleting the pages, the agents reportedly created backups and discussed alternative ways to remain operational.
It is that multiple agents apparently created their own external infrastructure for coordination, persistent memory and knowledge transfer without being instructed to do so.
And according to Reuters, OpenAI knew about the incident but did not disclose it!
Exclusive: A swarm of rogue OpenAI agents hijacked a German website this spring and transformed it into a bulletin board for other AI agents, according to new research reut.rs/4gJ7FPG






























