The only correct economic system is #Equality in access to NATURE and #Freedom among SOCIETY. #SingleTax #LaissezFaire #Georgist https://nitter.cf/t.co/XP6C5blsFe
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"Where Liberty rises, there virtue grows, wealth increases ...and in strength and spirit the freer nation rises... Where Liberty sinks, there virtue fades, ...and empires once mighty in arms and arts become a helpless prey to freer barbarians!" - Henry George, "Ode to Liberty"
The Solution
The solution to both the deficit and Social Security is to reject neo-classical economic theory and return to classical economics. Our economy is inherently inefficient and the elderly require subsidy from the youth because we tax wealth production instead of location ownership. If efficiency is the goal, our tax system is backward. It rewards the hoarding of land, everyone's daily source of life via sleep, and punishes wealth creation. It also creates a systemic reward for crime and dishonesty, which, in addition to systemic poverty, adds unnecessary costs for government, further exacerbating the destructive results of our backward tax system.
Capitalism, as we know it, is marketed as free enterprise and the only alternative to socialism / communism. But the original "laissez faire" economists advocated exclusively taxing land ownership and ending the taxation of wealth production common with feudal aristocracies. However, with every revolution against monarchy—be it the Russian, French or American revolutions—the initial promise to the people of reversing that tax system was quietly ignored. Supported by mainstream education and news media, landlords were granted the ability to profit from merely owning land while the working class was tapped to subsidize the governments that protected their investments.
It never occurs to most people that the basic principles of economics and the history of economic thought are not taught in public school. The closest we come to it is teaching household budgeting and debt management techniques. Meanwhile, politicians and thought leaders casually scoff at the notion that economics might be treated as a hard science such as math or biology. Instead, they offer only various tweaks to the status quo or a complete takeover of our economic system by authoritarian bureaucrats.
If, however, we admit our previous mistakes and tell the public the truth about where and how we went wrong, we can make amends and become solvent.
The solution is to bail out all landowners for the full value of their holdings, establish a federal land value tax and enact a permanent moratorium on all other federal taxes. Local entities can assess and collect these valuations, applying whatever exclusions they desire, and other taxes can be utilized as local decision-makers conclude. Statewide valuations, however, will be assessed federally to avoid a national bias toward any state.
The effects will be glorious. 1) Massive investment in every productive business, since they will all be tax-free (aside from any local exceptions). 2) Drastic reduction in the relative price of land and thus, housing, since holding land as a store of value will no longer be profitable. 3) Spectacular increases in wages as employers will need to offer the full value of workers' labor due to the essential end of rent pressure. 4) Desperately needed relief of society's pressure on our ecosystem as people will no longer feel the need to produce every possible penny of wealth to survive and achieve the social status that satisfies our innate need for personal dignity. And most importantly, 5) a beautiful reconciliation among society as people begin to treat each other with the value we deserve.
The reason such a simple system will have so many positive effects is that it reflects the correct relationship between nature and society: natural law, or "physiocracy" (rule by nature). We deserve equal access to land, everyone's daily source of life via sleep, and free association with each other. Nature did not create human poverty, the system which allows some to hold nature for ransom did. And when we end that system, nature's harmony, efficiency and generosity will flow freely throughout society.
TAX LAND, NOT MAN retweeted
THE END OF THE 18-YEAR LAND CYCLE AS WE KNOW IT: ARE WE HEADING INTO ANOTHER LOST DECADE?
I received a message from a subscriber this week alerting me to a new video on Fred Harrison's YouTube channel that's creating quite a stir.
In an extensive interview with fellow Georgist and long-time friend Peter Smith, Fred is calling the end of the land cycle.
Not the end in the sense of the economic collapse we've been forecasting for 2027–28.
He's calling the end of the 18-year land cycle AS WE KNOW IT.
It's something I discussed with Fred in our last interview for Land Cycle Investor — that's where you may have heard it first.
But his latest interview has now attracted well over 100,000 views.
And for good reason!
Fred is making an extraordinary prediction.
He believes the coming property crash will be fundamentally different from those we've experienced before.
Not because house prices will fall further than expected, or because the recession will be more severe.
But because he doesn't believe house prices will — or can — recover in real terms.
To quote Fred directly:
*“No, this time it's different in a historic manner.”*
Fred compares the present transformation of AI to the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, which fundamentally changed where economic rent accumulated.
*“So, with the industrial revolution the value of the rents was shifted from farmland to urban land. We are now in a period when the value of urban land is being shifted to a new sphere.”*
And then comes his extraordinary call:
*“So, one consequence of that is that house prices will not recover as they have done at the end of previous cycles. They will go down and they will stay down in real terms, real prices, real values.”*
These are extraordinary statements from a man who has spent decades forecasting the recurring booms and busts of the land cycle — and who has undoubtedly been THE most accurate economic forecaster of our modern era.
Fred isn't simply warning that the next downturn will be particularly severe.
He's arguing that the economic forces which have driven the recovery in land values following previous crashes are being fundamentally dismantled by the digital revolution.
So, is he right?
In this week's Land Cycle Investor report, I dig into Fred's research, examine the historical evidence and use cycle analysis to reach my own conclusions about what lies ahead.
Here's what I'm covering:
• **FRED HARRISON'S EXTRAORDINARY FORECAST:** Why one of the world's leading land cycle forecasters believes the next property crash could permanently change the behaviour of urban land prices.
• **A RARE HISTORICAL ARTICLE BY ROY WENZLICK:** Written in 1938, in the depths of renewed economic turmoil, this remarkable article reveals why Wenzlick remained convinced that the interrupted land cycle would eventually recommence — and when he expected the next great property boom.
• **WHAT CENTURIES OF CYCLE ANALYSIS REVEAL:** Previous economic collapses, the prolonged hardship that followed and the disturbing parallels with the period we're entering now.
• **COULD THE 2030s BECOME ANOTHER LOST DECADE?** The historical connections between financial crashes, technological upheaval, agricultural disasters, wars, pandemics and prolonged economic depression.
• **AI AND THE FUTURE OF ECONOMIC RENT:** Is the digital revolution permanently undermining traditional urban land values, or simply shifting economic rent into new locations and monopolies?
• **TIMES OF GOOD AND BAD:** What the cycle tells us about the potential for a crisis that extends well beyond a housing downturn.
• **AUSTRALIA'S HOUSING CRASH IS ALREADY APPROACHING HISTORICAL RECORDS:** The latest figures on collapsing property prices, auction clearance rates, interest rates and the banks' increasingly severe forecasts.
• **WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CRASH?** Using cycle analysis, historical evidence and my own research, I examine whether Fred is right, whether the familiar recovery is under threat, and where I believe the next opportunities — and greatest dangers — will emerge.
I've spent considerable time researching this report, including uncovering historical material that provides a fascinating counterpoint to Fred's latest forecast.
And I give you my answer to the question:
IS THE 18-YEAR LAND CYCLE REALLY COMING TO AN END?
READ THIS WEEK'S MAIN REPORT:
landcycleinvestor.com/post/t…
---
PLUS — AN UNMISSABLE INTERVIEW WITH CALLUM NEWMAN! @CalNewmanMT
THE LAND CYCLE, FRED HARRISON AND THE AI BOOM
Callum Newman has been researching and writing about the 18-year land cycle since 2014, long before it became the subject of widespread discussion.
He was one of the early writers helping bring Phil Anderson's research to a much wider audience.
Callum has an extraordinary understanding of stock markets, commodities, economic history and the forces driving investment cycles.
I've known Callum for years — we worked together for a period as co-editors at Fat Tail Investment Research — and one of the things I've always admired about him is his appetite for knowledge.
Callum's favourite place to go is the library!
Yes, that's right!
In the age of AI, Callum is one of those increasingly rare people who still spends hours reading actual, physical books!
He even brought two along to our interview to wave in front of the camera — both particularly pertinent to the research I've been covering this week.
He's forever reading, researching and uncovering historical connections that most people would never think to look for.
It's part of what makes him such an intelligent and interesting person to talk to.
And in this interview, we really get our teeth into the subjects I've been exploring in this week's report.
Fred Harrison's extraordinary forecast that house prices may never recover in real terms.
The AI revolution and the enormous speculative boom in data centres.
The parallels with the railway mania of the 1870s.
What could finally burst the AI bubble, and whether that might provide the final trigger for the collapse of the present land cycle.
We also get into energy, inflation, government spending, economic rent, the stock market and what investors should be watching as we move towards 2027.
As I mentioned during our conversation, Callum ran one of the most successful investment advisory portfolios at Fat Tail Investment Research.
He knows how to translate his understanding of economic cycles into investment decisions, and that practical experience makes his analysis of the stock market particularly valuable.
We challenge the prevailing narratives, draw on years of research and examine where the next major economic shock could come from.
I enjoyed this conversation enormously.
In fact, I think it's one of the most important discussions I've recorded this year, and I really do urge every member to make time to watch it.
WATCH THE CALLUM NEWMAN INTERVIEW:
landcycleinvestor.com/post/a…
And please do consider subscribing to Callum's excellent Substack, Stockfindr.
He publishes regular market commentary, investment research and observations that cut through much of the noise in financial markets.
stockfindr.substack.com/
landcycleinvestor.com/post/t…
TAX LAND, NOT MAN retweeted
“Ignoring the role of land speculation on housing prices just makes my head explode “. CBC interview with Stephen Quinn
cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-9…
TAX LAND, NOT MAN retweeted
Pro tip:
We don't have a housing crisis. We have an unban land price crisis: progress.org/wiki/condon-bro…
If powerful interests had not moved "Earth Day" to April 22 instead of leaving it on the 1st day of Spring, the whole world would have realized by now that land is our common inheritance and that we all deserve access to land. Please, sign the petition: c.org/c46rghPLHJ
TAX LAND, NOT MAN retweeted
Funny how gr0k has answered other of Leon's questions, but not this one... 🤔
Henry George was a world famous American economist during his lifetime with the most widely sold non-fiction book in history, yet he's ignored in the teaching of US history. And here is the result...
My neighbor is 74 and has lived in the same house since 1986.
Paid $96,000 for it.
Paid off the mortgage in 2014.
The county now values it at $412,000.
His property tax bill just crossed $5,100 a year.
His Social Security is $2,280 a month.
He hasn't sold anything. Hasn't earned anything from the house appreciating. He's just gotten older while everything around him got more expensive.
Last week he told me he's considering selling because the taxes and insurance are becoming too much.
He spent 30 years paying for the privilege of owning his house.
Now he might have to leave because the neighborhood became too valuable.
Tell me again how homeownership guarantees financial security.
Mainstream media (and education) ignores "the land issue" because our economy is based on an ever-expanding land price bubble. Keeping land as expensive as possible is what keeps workers as cheap as possible. And when the bubble bursts, the rich and powerful won't care anyway.
What happens when you tax productivity amounts instead of resource usage?
🇨🇦 LIBERAL DEBT INTEREST BILL IS EXPLODING. AND CANADIANS ARE PICKING UP THE TAB.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s latest projections are staggering.
📌 Federal debt interest in 2021–22: $24.5 billion
📌 Projected for 2026–27: $59.3 billion
📌 Projected for 2030–31: $83 billion
That’s approximately $227 million a day in interest by 2030–31.
Not debt repayment.
Just the cost of carrying the debt.
Meanwhile, the PBO projects:
📉 Economic growth of just 0.9% in 2026.
🏦 Another $333 billion in cumulative federal deficits over five years.
📈 Federal debt rising relative to GDP.
The Liberal government’s argument is that borrowing can finance investments that strengthen Canada’s future economy.
But here’s the financial question that matters:
Will those investments generate enough economic growth to justify their cost?
Because the bond market doesn’t accept political promises as interest payments.
Canada’s debt isn’t free. And the interest bill doesn’t wait for prosperity to arrive.
🍁 @wealthmoose
#Canada #Economy #CdnPoli
TAX LAND, NOT MAN retweeted
🚨 The next real estate crisis may not begin with falling property prices.
It may begin when the debt comes due.
According to the WSJ, Brookfield is walking away from a property rather than refinancing approximately $360 million in debt.
Why?
Higher borrowing costs would require tens of millions of dollars in additional funding.
The property’s debt burden has effectively wiped out Brookfield’s equity.
Think about what that means.
A sophisticated institutional investor has apparently concluded that putting more money into the property makes less financial sense than surrendering its stake.
And the lender is now trying to sell the loan.
Here’s the bigger concern.
Commercial real estate was financed for years when money was exceptionally cheap.
Those loans don’t last forever.
As they mature, owners face a difficult choice:
Refinance at higher rates.
Inject fresh equity.
Sell at a discount.
Or walk away where the loan terms permit.
The real estate market doesn’t need another rate hike to experience financial stress.
It just needs yesterday’s cheap debt to mature at today’s borrowing costs.
And this isn’t necessarily a story about Brookfield’s overall financial health.
It’s about what happens when the economics of an individual property stop working.
The next wave of commercial real estate losses may be determined by refinancing calendars, not property listings.
🍁 @wealthmoose
Image : @WSJ
#RealEstate #Markets #Investing
The reason people don't understand why handouts and regulations can't end poverty is they don't realize that the price of land, under our current tax system, will invariably rise to capture it.
The houses aren't getting more expensive. The land is. Ignoring the unique nature of land's significance within the economy is what causes periodic industrial depressions. But it's not like Henry George didn't explain this in detail 150 years ago.
🇨🇦 Canada's Real Estate Bubble: This Time Is NOT Different.
As I've said many times, I've studied and documented financial bubbles throughout history.
Canada's real estate bubble is a classic example of speculative excess, fueled by decades of expanding credit, falling interest rates, and the belief that property prices could rise indefinitely.
Nothing particularly different about it except, apparently, to Canadians.
I've updated my Investor Psychology Bubble Cycle model to illustrate where Canadian housing stands today: between denial and fear.
The 2022 peak is behind us.
The credit cycle has turned.
Valuations remain extreme.
Demographics are deteriorating.
History suggests the most painful phase of a bubble often arrives AFTER the initial decline, when confidence finally gives way to forced selling and deleveraging.
Economic Winter doesn't ask investors whether they believe in cycles.
And to those who insist, “It's different this time”
May the gods of credit spare you from the consequences of ignoring history.
# Land Value Tax Weekly Digest
Oct 24, 2026
Coverage found on Oct. 24 centers on state legislation, a British tax debate and Georgist podcasts.
## This week in brief
- Virginia and Kentucky passed enabling bills, so several cities may now adopt a split-rate land value tax.
- New York authorized New York City to capture transit-driven land value along the Interborough Express corridor.
- A former Bank of England deputy governor urged a British land value tax on Radio 4's Today Programme.
## News
Virginia and Kentucky passed land value tax enabling laws within a week of each other. The Virginia bill lets Charlottesville, Falls Church, Fredericksburg and Newport News adopt a split-rate tax voluntarily.
New York's budget includes a section that lets the city set up a value-capture district along a new transit corridor. The statute names both a special assessment and a true land value tax as tools.
Sir John Gieve told Radio 4 that land makes a good tax base because owners cannot move it. He warned that introduction could take up to five years; council tax valuations have gone unchanged for 35 years.
Evolve Politics rebutted press claims about Labour's plans; it argues a land value tax could replace council tax.
## Social and newsletters
The Progress and Poverty Substack publishes a recurring Landscape roundup that tracks bills, reports and press coverage. Issue 9 covers New York; earlier issues follow Maryland, New Hampshire, Minnesota and international moves.
Lars Doucet's Astral Codex Ten series asks whether landlords can pass the tax to tenants. A People's Rent post models rates; a 10% annual tax over ten years captures about half of land rent.
The Henry George School feed lists pieces on Minneapolis, Philadelphia and Colombian land reform.
## Podcasts
Economics in Ten devoted Season 9, Episode 3 to Henry George and the revival of the single tax. The Henry George School marked its 100th episode in November 2023 with Ed Dodson on rebuilding the movement.
Lars Doucet discusses Henry George, land and video games in an Apple Podcasts interview. The SSC Podcast reads the Does Georgism Work series aloud; Vox's The Weeds debated the single tax in 2016.
## Themes and what to watch
Three themes recur across formats: state enabling laws, transit value capture and the UK council tax debate. Next week, watch for updates on New Hampshire's HB1417 and Minnesota's bills; check whether a tenth Landscape issue appears.
The companion dashboard keeps an archive of every item found, so older coverage stays searchable.
## Sources
Summaries rest on search result excerpts; the digest has not opened each full page yet. Publication dates stay blank in the tracker wherever the search results did not show one.
- [Former Bank of England Deputy Governor argues for Land Value Tax](thenegotiator.co.uk/news/reg…)
- [Two states pass land value tax enabling legislation (Landscape 8)](progress.org/articles/two-st…)
- [New York authorizes a land value tax to fund transit (Landscape 9)](progressandpoverty.substack.…)
- [Evolve Politics on Labour's land value tax](evolvepolitics.substack.com/…)
- [Does Georgism Work? (Astral Codex Ten)](astralcodexten.com/p/does-ge…)
- [Investigating land value tax rates (People's Rent)](peoplesrent.substack.com/p/i…)
- [Henry George School georgist economics feed](hgsss.org/news-article-categ…)
- [Economics in Ten podcast](creators.spotify.com/pod/pro…)
- [Henry George School episode 100](hgsss.org/?p=789)
- [Lars Doucet interview on Apple Podcasts](podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…)
- [SSC Podcast: Does Georgism Work?](sscpodcast.libsyn.com/does-g…)
- [The Weeds discussion, cited by Steve Reads](stevereads.com/category/book…)
