Political Ad Man, Republican Strategist, and Entrepreneur.
Texas
Joined February 2009
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It was such an honor to kick off our inaugural @NestpointFDN gala at the @kencen with such inspirational and exceptional honorees. The United States is the most exceptional place on earth.
Thanks to our Nestpoint Fellows and everyone who came from across the nation and around the globe to share in the celebration.
@HARRISFAULKNER @KatiePavlich @Cernovich @megynkelly @PeteHegseth @MaryMargOlohan @bungarsargon @StephenMoore @Annewilsonmusic @KadhimWaeli @HenryNestpoint @Jscottpace @cjpearson @MichaelPMurph16
Always great to be with @Elex_Michaelson post eday.
“We saw it in every state I was involved in. It was affordability. It was the economy.” — John Thomas
On @CNN, @TheThomasGuide discussed the economic frustration behind Republican midterm losses and Texas's dramatic political shift.
Looking forward to dissecting election results and what's next with @Johnnydontlike @randywangradio in moments.
To be precise, don't you mean he is sitting in 5th place according to this internal survey?
Wow, @MattMahanSJ tied for second place among Democrats. As more voters get to know Matt, they like him. He’s one of the only candidates with a positive net favorability rating and the ONLY candidate with a real proven track record of solving problems with common sense solutions.
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This survey soft shoes (incorrectly) the entire concept of the wealth tax as it is being framed by the proponents and on the ballot. Asks voters about taxing "high income earners". That's not what this billionaire tax is. It is taxing billionaires and voters of California are inclined to stick it to them.
First in CA Playbook: A new pro-Swalwell IE is up with its first seven-figure TV buy. Its donors include the California Medical Association, Global Medical Response, California Professional Firefighters and California New Car Dealers Association
More: politico.com/newsletters/cal…
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This syncs up with why Newsom is doing whatever he can to appear to "fight" Trump.
🔵NEW FROM @BlueprintPolls:
We tested Democratic Party vision statements from a range of electeds and pundits. Here's what worked, and what didnt:
“Fight” language stands out. The top-two most-preferred messages, among voters overall as well as independents, both lead with fighting language: a call to imagine a Democrat Party that “fights—really fights—for all of us” (+14 overall; +14 independents) and a push to make “the fight to restore the American Dream the heart of our party” (+12 overall; +13 independents).
Anti-woke is broke. An attack on “performative woke politics” is the second-least preferred message among voters overall (-11) and independents (-7), and the worst performing among Democrats (-33).
Name the enemy. Two messages invoke the American Dream, with very different results. One that calls out corporations and concentrated power as villains is among the most-preferred (+12), while another encouraging plain language like “get rich” but naming no antagonist is among the least-preferred by voters overall and independents (-16), and even more so by Democrats (-33). Terms like "oligarchy" don't work as well as "corporations" and "big money."
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This syncs up with why Newsom is doing whatever he can to appear to "fight" Trump.
🔵NEW FROM @BlueprintPolls:
We tested Democratic Party vision statements from a range of electeds and pundits. Here's what worked, and what didnt:
“Fight” language stands out. The top-two most-preferred messages, among voters overall as well as independents, both lead with fighting language: a call to imagine a Democrat Party that “fights—really fights—for all of us” (+14 overall; +14 independents) and a push to make “the fight to restore the American Dream the heart of our party” (+12 overall; +13 independents).
Anti-woke is broke. An attack on “performative woke politics” is the second-least preferred message among voters overall (-11) and independents (-7), and the worst performing among Democrats (-33).
Name the enemy. Two messages invoke the American Dream, with very different results. One that calls out corporations and concentrated power as villains is among the most-preferred (+12), while another encouraging plain language like “get rich” but naming no antagonist is among the least-preferred by voters overall and independents (-16), and even more so by Democrats (-33). Terms like "oligarchy" don't work as well as "corporations" and "big money."
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The fundamental dynamics of the race haven't changed. He passed on it once based on those dynamics. The wise call would be to sit this one out.
Rick Caruso reconsiders return to LA mayor’s race after damning Bass report: ‘Loss of public trust’ nypost.com/2026/02/05/us-new…
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The problem with this analysis is that it likely doesnt model how an R vs D race will play out. In reality the math isnt there for a D statewide this cycle in Texas. Will Paxton need to define his opponent as an extreme liberal? Yes. But once a campaign plays out it is hard to see Paxton losing.
Does Cornyn start in a more marketable position than Paxton? Yes. But both are viable to win. One R just wins more easily.
New NRSC internal shows Talarico beating Paxton in a head-to-head, Crockett coming within 1
Cornyn is +3 vs Talarico, +7 vs Crockett
H/t @burgessev
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The problem with this analysis is that it likely doesnt model how an R vs D race will play out. In reality the math isnt there for a D statewide this cycle in Texas. Will Paxton need to define his opponent as an extreme liberal? Yes. But once a campaign plays out it is hard to see Paxton losing.
Does Cornyn start in a more marketable position than Paxton? Yes. But both are viable to win. One R just wins more easily.
New NRSC internal shows Talarico beating Paxton in a head-to-head, Crockett coming within 1
Cornyn is +3 vs Talarico, +7 vs Crockett
H/t @burgessev
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Our firm's new statewide poll: the California Wealth Tax is currently favored to pass.
Uninformed ballot test:
Yes: 60%
No: 23.6%
Undecided: 16.1%
n=907 | MOE ±3%
@NestpointGRP
Exclusive | Stunning number of California voters back wealth tax but admit it will kill jobs: poll nypost.com/2026/02/01/us-new…
This vote is less about economics and more about values. California voters are comfortable taxing wealth. Capital, on the other hand, is highly mobile. Both realities can coexist.
California voters are signaling something very clearly. They are far more concerned with cost of living and public services than with the financial well-being of billionaires or the warnings coming from political and economic elites.
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Good for @realDonaldTrump We need to hold these banks accountable on the issue of debanking.
I can attest personally that JPM debanks Americans.
Dallas, Texas wins...again.
U-Haul just released its annual "Growth Index" for all 50 states. For the 6th straight year, California is ranked 50th. We have the highest rate of people moving out versus moving in.
Newsom has turned the greatest state in the country into the most popular state to leave.
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Congrats! Well deserved and @NewsNation is lucky to have her among your ranks.
🚨NEWS: I am thrilled to announce a new show with NewsNation. See you soon, America! Stay tuned 🇺🇸
@NewsNation
newsnationnow.com/press/kati…
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Im wondering what the threshold for MEGA billionaire status is? What level billionaire would @elonmusk be?
@daverjacobson
“This dude is a billionaire — a mega billionaire. And he’s talking about affordability as being a hoax…” @daverjacobson says.
“Trump has had a unique ability to identify with working class voters on issues like affordability,” @TheThomasGuide replies.
w/ @Elex_Michaelson
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