Tim retweeted
Most options activity is meaningless. I’ve never met anyone who consistently makes money by following options flow.
In small stocks, it may occasionally matter because someone knows something. But in companies worth more than $100 billion, it is almost entirely noise. It should never be part of an investment thesis. It only clouds the investment process.
Tim retweeted
Today until 9am everyone on fintwit was an expert on Brazil posting amazing takes, after that everyone is an IPO expert and understands the S1 intimately.
Fintwit is packed with amazing talent with expertise in every field. I feel blessed being on here reading my timeline.
Tim retweeted
How many will dress up as “PHP” for Halloween? 🎃
Effective Immediately, all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical vulnerabilities. PHP is widely used for web applications. These vulnerabilities often provide a direct path to the server's file system or database. If an immediate update is not feasible, it is recommend that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated. NSA will follow up shortly with more specific guidance.
Tim retweeted
the last Friday something similar happened was March. The vix curve got murdered on Monday morning
TLDR: movement in the $VIX and VIX options yesterday far outstripped moves in the SPX. there's information about market fragility here that we should be mindful of.
the VIX and SPX are negatively correlated. run the regression and it's on the order of -80%. but the slope of the regression (change in VIX per change in the SPX) is time varying. we have periods when the VIX moves a ton relative to the SPX move (Feb'18 volmagedon). in contrast, 2022 brought an extremely dull VIX, muted reactive to moves in the SPX.
yesterday, especially from 12:30 to 1:30pm, both the VIX and $VVIX moved a great deal relative to the move in the SPX. I show this below (thank you, Claude). typical VIX beta (% move in VIX per 1% move in the SPX) has been around 7. yesterday it reached on the order of 50. from 12:30 to 1:30, SPX down just 60bps...VIX up 29% (50x)...
talking my own thinking here, but there is no security in markets better equipped (at a low price) to hedge a near term crash than a short-dated out of the money call option on the VIX. this is what got really bid yesterday. the Oct 25 call (expires Wednesday) went from being worth 6 cents in the morning to more than $1 a few hours later. it exploded not just because the VIX rose so much, but because "vol of vol" surged as well.
no security is more "spot up, vol up" than the VIX itself. it will be interesting to see if this was a one-off or indicative of a larger shift in behavior where investor seek to cover deep left tail risk.
Tim retweeted
The employee was terminated.
We discovered a sophisticated recording device that was hidden inside one of our offices. We used our models to understand the device and where it had come from, identifying that a specific employee had planted it a few days earlier. We referred the matter to the FBI, and we’re grateful to the agents and prosecutors who moved quickly to make an arrest. The FBI’s investigation is ongoing and we will continue to support their work.
At this time, we have no indications of this individual inappropriately accessing or exfiltrating model weights, source code, or customer data. The employee was terminated.
We take protecting our technology, data, and people seriously, and as a matter of national importance. Our security program is designed to protect against a wide range of threat actors, from insider risks to cybercriminals to nation states, and this case is an example of how AI can help address these sophisticated security threats.
Tim retweeted
🚨JUST IN: OpenAI models will now have invisible watermarks hidden in ChatGPT and Codex outputs
>"We are not making text watermarking a global default AT LAUNCH"
>"phased approach starting with the EU"
>"this regional approach gives us room to learn"
>"starting today, API customers around the world WILL be able to opt in…"
"We expect to revisit each part of this approach as the technology, standards, and evidence evolve"
Tim retweeted
crazy how back in my employment days approximately zero professionals, many who traded with JEM on the floor, spoke well about the guy. including current investors in his funds, think one has closed since I last spoke to them in 2019
approximately 68.6% of said professionals actually had bad things to say about JEM. lesson in that
Tim retweeted
all of the throat goaters pointing out that he says Nov to June after saying Jan at the beginning are just proving my point
“yea bro we’re getting a decline, it’s gonna happen sometime between these seven months”
Did you know it’s also going to rain somewhere in the US in the next 30 days???
