Experimental Locally-Ai developed UK severe weather model. Probabilistic thunderstorm, hail & tornado risk at 9km resolution using multi-model ensembles.
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Moving into next week it is looking increasingly likely that we could see the earliest recorded SSW by nearly 3 weeks.
ECMWF currently goes to around -3m/s while the GFS floats around the 0m/s mark and briefly ducking under this.
The ECMWF AIFS is looking the most bullish dropping to around 6 or 7m/s with the AIFS ensembles showing a 37% chance of a reversal, IFS Ensembles at 97% & and 71% chance on the GEFS for a reversal.
Another clear night for most with fog for Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the SW. Also the risk of freezing fog under the clear skies where temperatures drop below freezing.
Showery rain moving South will fade as it does so.
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TorCast Ai retweeted
Today, 31st October, marks the 5th anniversary of the Halloween mesolow which carved a path of wind damage from Dorset to Lincolnshire, including as many as 14 possible tornadoes.
A summary of the event was published in the @RMetS journal "Weather": rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.co…
Here's the current look at the state of the PV.
The ECMWF is definitely keeping the winds reversed and stronger (around -4m/s) for longer in the most recent runs compared to the GEFS with mean of all the ensembles if floating around the 0m/s.
Note that the ECMWF only goes out to 15 days compared to the 31 on the GEFS
A fine sunny day for most of England and Wales now the early fog has burnt off, but a cloudy and fairly miserable day for Ireland and Western Scotland where there will be some patchy rain.
TorCast Ai retweeted
Even if you get a reversal of zonal winds which we may or may not get (technical ssw)
History tells us that when it's followed by an almost instant restrengthening of the zonal winds, the response at the surface is distinctly muted
We've been here many, many times before
Another wet and windy night for Northern Ireland and Scotland, where a yellow weather warning comes into force from 03:00.
For the rest of the UK a cold front moves eastwards bringing a squall line with it, this will bring a spell of very intense wind and rain all be it brief.
Also going to be a warm night for most ahead of the cold front.
Looking into the SPV now as there is the likelihood that the polar vortex will significantly weaken in the coming weeks, with most of the ensemble models from the GFS and ECMCF showing the PV weakening to the 0-10m/s range with a few members dipping briefly into the reversal before strengthening again to above average values.
Currently its looking like a displacement event and whether any effects of this weakening propagate to the surface a few weeks after remain to be seen.
The GEFS below has 13/31 members showing a reversal currently.
Here are some stats and figures from the MO observations from 21:00 Saturday until 21:00 Sunday.
This was generated yesterday evening and so some of these figures may have changed in the hours since.
TorCast Ai retweeted
REMNANTS OF BOELO — FINAL ADVISORY #18
Winds: 85mph
CWSIS: Remnant Low (RL)
MSLP: 964mb
The European Windstorm Season tracking centre has issued Final Advisory 18 for the remnants of Boelo. This is the last advisory today.
The system is currently analyzed with winds of 85 mph (75 kt / 137 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (hPa).
Boelo's remnants continue to be tracked across northern Europe, with the forecast indicating impacts across parts of the British Isles and surrounding regions.
The system's associated wind field may continue to bring strong winds, hazardous conditions, and potential disruption as it gradually loses its organized structure.
This is the final advisory for Boelo. Further updates to the system's status and track will no longer be issued under this advisory series.
#StormBoelo #Advisory18 #CycloneTracking #EuropeanWindstorm #WeatherUpdate #Windstorm #SevereWeather #WindWarnings #Windstorm #Boelo
TorCast Ai retweeted
Incredibly close to UK October MSLP record with 948.1 hPa at Stornoway at 22Z Saturday, but just slightly north of the centre of #Boelo. It's likely a lower MSLP value would have been recorded had there been an observation station farther south on Harris.
nitter.cf/danholley_/status/2113…
As Storm #Boelo tracks across N/NW Scotland on Sat night, its central pressure is likely to be 946-949 hPa.
The current UK Oct low MSLP record is 947.9 hPa (Storm Amy 2025). There's a chance we could beat this... just one week after near-record high MSLP
nitter.cf/danholley_/status/2111…
Plenty of strikes off the coast of Scotland throughout today. The AI model once again correctly identifying the risk,
TorCast Ai retweeted
⚠️ Yellow weather warning issued ⚠️
Storm Boelo will bring the risk of heavy rain across Wales and parts of western and southern England
Saturday 1100 - 2300
Latest info 👉 bit.ly/WxWarning
Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️
Here are the percentage chance for gusts of wind from 50 to 80mph via the 12z ECMWF 51 Member ensemble for #StormBoelo
🌬️ FINAL WIND OUTLOOK: STORM BOELO
📅 Tomorrow at midday – Sunday at midnight
🔴 LEVEL 4/5 — VERY SEVERE GUST RISK ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Exposed coastal areas, particularly headlands across Scotland, face the potential for violent gusts exceeding 85mph. Significant disruption is likely in places, with potentially life-threatening conditions in the most exposed locations. The risk also extends a little inland.
🟠 LEVEL 3/5 — SEVERE GUST RISK ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Scotland, far northern England and exposed coastal areas of Northern Ireland will face severe gusts exceeding 70mph. These gusts are likely along coasts and will also affect some inland areas, particularly further north and in exposed locations. Significant disruption and dangerous conditions are possible.
🟡 LEVEL 2/5 — VERY STRONG GUST RISK ⭐⭐☆☆☆
Coastal areas across the British Isles, along with northern parts of the UK, will experience very strong gusts exceeding 55mph. Disruption will occur in some areas, particularly along exposed coastlines and elevated terrain.
🟢 LEVEL 1/5 — STRONG GUST RISK ⭐☆☆☆☆
Strong gusts exceeding 40mph will affect the entire British Isles. Some exposed inland and coastal locations, including parts of southern Britain, will see gusts approaching 50mph. Localised disruption is possible.
📌 IMPACTS & GUIDANCE
For details of the potential impacts associated with each risk level, please refer to my Wind Risk Guide on the right-hand side of the outlook.
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This is my own unofficial wind outlook and is not an official Met Office forecast or warning. For official forecasts, weather warnings and safety advice, please consult the Met Office website.
⭐ CONFIDENCE: 3/5 — MODERATE CONFIDENCE ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
#StormBoelo #UKWeather #WindOutlook #WeatherUpdate
Here's the latest multi-model guidance on the track of #StormBoelo from ECMWF, GFS, ICON-EU,UKMO and ARPEGE
Over the last few hours numerous storms have broken out over Lincolnshire, with 4 cells producing 205 strikes in the last 15 mins alone.
Below are a few screenshots from the AI Model from the last few hours showing the risk and the overlayed lightning strikes.
#StormAusten is still looking very pretty and impressive on radar.
Images are from Windy.com
TorCast Ai retweeted
Storm Austen is bringing strong and gusty winds across southern parts of England and Wales this morning ⚠️
Here are the highest wind gusts recorded so far 👇
ALT Table of the highest wind speeds so far from Storm Austen. St Mary's Airport, 76mph. Culdrose 71mph. Camborne 68mph. Castlemartin Warren 58mph. Plymouth Mountbatten 58mph. Needles Isle of Wight 58mph.