Matt 🇦🇺

I trade Bitcoin and other crypto perpetual futures full-time. Have for 5 years. Built my own system from scratch - confluence-based, Asia session focused, strict on which trades I'll actually take. No signals. No hype. Just what I see at the chart every morning and the thinking behind it. If that's useful to you, stick around.

Live at 12:30 GMT tonight. BTC rallied off the lows and tagged 81,196 yesterday. The question now is whether there's still a clean trade from here. I'll walk what I'm watching on the chart, what confirmation I want before I size in, and what would make me stand down. Then what that means for ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, NEAR and SUI. youtube.com/watch?v=bc5o1wHf… Also streaming on @TMMastery For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

BoE day. I size down before the print, not after. Rate decision at 12:00 GMT, Bailey around 12:30, US jobless claims at 13:30, Lagarde later at 18:00 GMT. I don't need a view on the vote. I need room for the reaction. Smaller size and a wider stop until the first move settles. Do you change size on central bank days, or keep it the same? Follow if you want more of how I manage event risk. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Asia handed London a quiet book after yesterday's breakout. BTC spent 00:00-07:00 GMT in a 662-point range, 80,256 to 80,918. Price was still near 80,650 at 07:00 GMT. Asia volume stayed orderly. Nothing like the 3,942 BTC hour at 15:00 GMT Wednesday. That's a hold, not a chase. The move already happened. What matters now is whether this base survives the next event window. BoE rate decision is at 12:00 GMT, Bailey speaks around 12:30, then US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Missed the live? Bogdan and BB covered why BTC is still stuck in a range after the election move, and why they would rather wait than chase a news push. Replay: youtube.com/watch?v=1RNyU4e5… For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

BTC dropped to 75,736 in Asia on Wednesday and was back near 78,500 within hours. Chase or wait? I'm waiting. Inside this box I have no edge. I want a break, then a retest that holds. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

A consensus doesn't make a thesis wrong. It makes the trade around it harder. Price can head to your target and still liquidate you on the way. Leverage doesn't wait for "eventually". For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

After a big green day, I keep my size the same. A strong move makes the next entry feel safer than it is. My risk per trade doesn't change because the last candle was big. Same size and same stop rules as a quiet day. Follow along for more of how I manage risk day to day. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

BTC broke out of the range it had been stuck in since Oct 30. The first hourly close above 78,878 came at 14:00 GMT Wednesday, and price tagged 81,196 an hour later. It's sitting near 80,500 now, with funding still around 0.01%. I don't chase that candle. What I want to see is a pullback toward 78,878 that holds. I share how I run my process in our free TMM community: community.trademanagementmas… For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Live at 12:30 GMT tonight with Bogdan. Bitcoin bounced. The question is whether you chase that move or wait for a cleaner entry. We'll walk the setup I'm watching after the election, what confirmation I want before I size in, and what would make me stand down. Then what it means for ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, NEAR and SUI. youtube.com/watch?v=1RNyU4e5… Also streaming on @TMMastery For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

New leverage opened on the bounce off 75,736. OKX BTC open interest went from 3.54B at 03:00 GMT to 3.75B at 06:00 GMT, up about 6%. Price rose about 2% over the same hours, so this is new positions, not only shorts closing. Funding is still 0.01% on OKX and lower on Bybit. Nobody is paying up yet. Fresh leverage near the bottom of a range can go either way. If those longs are wrong, they become the next flush. I want to see the move hold through ISM services at 15:00 GMT before I add size. Do you watch open interest, or just price? Follow if you want more notes like this. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Asia took out Friday's flush low overnight and then gave it straight back. BTC dropped to 75,736 at 03:00 GMT, about 600 below the 76,326 low from Oct 30. That hour traded 1,767 BTC on Binance, almost 4x the 5-day hourly average. By 07:00 GMT price was back near 77,900. Sellers got their shot at the low on real volume and couldn't hold it. That's useful information. It isn't a trend change. The level I care about now is 76,326. Hourly closes above it keep the reclaim intact. Lose it again and the sweep means nothing. US data later, GMT: ADP 13:15 ISM services 15:00 For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Missed the live? Bogdan and I looked at why perps stay crowded long while money leaves the exchanges, and why a bottom everyone agrees on is harder to trade. Replay: youtube.com/watch?v=xtZBT1Ih… For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Everyone is calling the bottom in the low 70s now. That worries me. When the whole market watches one zone, it gets front-run or overshot. So I treat it as a place to watch, not an entry. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

One question to answer before the US midterms this week. If every open position you have hit its stop at the same time, how much would you lose? Not per trade. All of it together. A few large caps, some small caps and BTC is not diversification. In crypto, when BTC takes a hit, most of the rest goes with it. When traders are uncertain, good traders sit out. Holding on to your capital is still a good trade. Bogdan and I went through October and the November map on today's live. Replay: youtube.com/watch?v=zciM49Wg… For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

How I take partial profits, since a few of you asked. I write down where I'll scale out before I enter. The first piece comes off at that level, and then I move the stop so less is at risk on what's left. The rest stays on until the plan says otherwise. If I start trimming because I'm nervous, I'm trading my mood instead of my plan. Follow along if you want more of how I actually manage trades. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

BTC dipped to 76,389 on Tuesday, about 60 points above Friday's flush low, then bounced to around 77,900 overnight. That puts it right back at the bottom of Monday's Asia range, 77,927, which is where it broke down. Funding sits flat at 0.01%, so leveraged longs haven't piled in. I'd want a few hourly closes back inside that range before I call this more than a bounce. I share how I run my process in our free TMM community: community.trademanagementmas… For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Live at 12:30 GMT tonight with Bogdan. Everyone's calling a Bitcoin bottom. BTC is around 77,000, about 700 above Friday's flush low at 76,326, and a lot of traders are watching the same zone. Agreement isn't confirmation. We'll go through what separates a real bottom from another failed bounce, what confirmation we want before a trade, and what would invalidate the idea. Then what it means for ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, NEAR and SUI. youtube.com/watch?v=xtZBT1Ih… Also streaming on @TMMastery For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

At least $12.5 billion was liquidated in October. That's a little over $400M every single day. Longs paid $9.2B. Shorts paid $3.3B. Nearly 3 to 1. October didn't punish the bulls. It punished leverage. People took every bullish candle as a reason to go long because the calendar said Uptober. Seasonality is a story. It isn't an edge. The edge is size you can survive, an invalidation written before entry, and a leverage cap that doesn't move because the month has a nickname. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

October is closed. On Binance, BTC opened the month at 83,624 and closed at 77,582. About 7% down. That month had $12.5B in liquidations and a major exchange hack 48 hours before the close. I don't read that as weakness. That's the market absorbing a bad headline. The map hasn't changed. 75K is the September swing low and the next domino. Below it, 71K to 73K is where six levels of confluence line up on my chart. We didn't trade October because it was October. We won't trade November because people call it Moonvember. We trade the levels. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Full calendar today. All times GMT. 03:30 RBA rate decision. Markets expect a hike to 4.85%, so my home bank goes first. 15:00 US JOLTS job openings. US midterm results start landing from around 23:00 tonight. Into the Asia open, Nasdaq futures were down about 1.1%, gold futures up about 1.5%, and the VIX up near 9% to 21. I don't try to call event outcomes. On days like this I cut size and give a trade more time before I judge it, because one headline can move price further than my stop was built for. Follow along and I'll post how BTC handles each one. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.