Trade Diversion is a blog about trade & globalization by economist Jonathan Dingel, associate professor @columbia_econ.
Joined November 2011
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New: Market Size and Trade in Medical Services, revised and expanded.
Now with demographic-based IVs & a case study of mesothelioma care that also show regional increasing returns.
Dollar for dollar, travel subsidies save more lives than output subsidies.
jdingel.com/research/DGLM_MS…
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
Why I call human-only review dangerous. The errors humans miss most are the ones that change how a trial reads.
Text and table disagree: humans caught it 7% of the time. Reversed comparison: 10%. Abstract contradicts the results: 25%. Patient numbers don't add up: 32%. The four leading models caught all four in every single review of the 2026 trials.
Analysis restricted to patients who completed treatment: humans 22%, models 95-100%. Conclusions not supported by the results: humans 41%, every model 100%.
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of international-trade job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Spatial JMCs: reply to other tweet]
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
Spatial JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of spatial-economics job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Trade JMCs: reply to other tweet]
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
AI in Econometric Theory: An Example
Isaiah Andrews, Anna Mikusheva
arxiv.org/abs/2610.35831 [𝚎𝚌𝚘𝚗.𝙴𝙼]
ALT This note contains a story and a paper. The paper is about the admissibility of two-stage least squares with weak instruments, a topic we have worked on together since 2019. The story is about how we (or, rather, our LLMs) wrote the paper, and some thoughts on what this may mean for our field.
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
This is strange. I was told the foreign countries pay the tariffs, so why would this help in the election?
The U.S. is expected to remove 50% tariffs on some Canadian products in a bid to help Maine Sen. Susan Collins and other Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections wsj.com/politics/policy/trum… via @WSJ
I hadn’t been paying attention to Berlin housing policy and missed the pending plan to expropriate real estate companies, taking a quarter million apartments at below-market compensation. dw.com/en/could-a-left-party…
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
Aidan Toner-Rodgers (infamous for being kicked out of the MIT economics PhD program for a fraudulent AI paper (which was R&R QJE & then pulled)) now has another paper retracted, this time from the Journal of Development Economics. Retraction notice here: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
Some fascinating stats on India's exports to the US:
1/ Smartphones (HS 8517130000) are now *>25%* of India's exports to U.S.
2/ This year, India has supplied *half* of all US smartphone imports
3/ Excluding smartphones, Jan–Aug 2026 exports *fell* 18% from Jan–Aug 2025
I was advising Shizuka Inoue on his JMP slides, and he surprised me by defending his design with evidence: "Cumulative Presentation Enhances Learning Outcomes by Directing Learners' Visual Attention" doi.org/10.1002/jcal.70286
The RCT holds slide content fixed, for better or worse.
Spatial JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of spatial-economics job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Trade JMCs: reply to other tweet]
Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of international-trade job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Spatial JMCs: reply to other tweet]
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
Since JMCs are about to post their PDFs, here’s a friendly reminder to use technical terms precisely:
I have seen the phrase "I structurally estimate the model" in too many job-market papers this month.
JMCs, please read @PhilHaile: "Models, Measurement, and the Language of Empirical Economics" sites.google.com/view/philha…
At least graduate from confusion and abuse 201 to 202...
jrosenthalkay.github.io/2026…
@jordanr_k on Greany (2026) and related “change the elasticity” counterfactual scenarios.
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
@ubcVSE is hiring this year with a focus on International Trade/Spatial Economics and Macroeconomics/International Macroeconomics. Please apply!
See econjobmarket.org/positions/… for more
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
Following a great edition at Columbia last week (thanks to Don, Conor, & Hugo for excellent organization), I updated my web site with the history of past CUREs dating back to the first one (Milan, 2009).
jlin.org/resources.html
Some great programs - check out 2010!
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
A moment to celebrate! Members of the Columbia community gathered to honor Professor Michael Woodford after he received the @NobelPrize in Economic Sciences earlier today, including President Jennifer L. Mnookin, Provost Angela Olinto, Executive Vice President of Arts and Sciences Amy Hungerford, and Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Martin Chalfie. Congratulations, Professor Woodford!
📹 Columbia University
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) retweeted
👏 Congratulations to Michael Woodford, the John Bates Clark Professor of Political Economy at Columbia University, for receiving the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, along with Robert E. Hall of @Stanford: nobelprize.org/prizes/econom…
📷 Niklas Elmehed © Nobel Prize Outreach
ALT A graphic showing Michael Woodford as a black and white sketch with gold accents, with announcing his receiving of the Nobel Prize in Economics.