Ty

The $APP Thesis in One Post: 1. Fundamentals • Revenue: $1.924B (+53% YoY) | Management guided 20%–30%+ baseline CAGR • Adj. EBITDA Margin: 84% ($1.614B) • Free Cash Flow: $863.3M • Diluted EPS: $3.76 (+57% YoY) 2. Valuation • Forward P/E: ~14x • P/S (NTM): 15x 3. The Core Business / MOAT • MAX (The Supply Moat & Fee Arbitrage): AppLovin owns MAX, the core mediation layer controlling mobile app ad supply. When external DSPs (like Meta or Google) bid on inventory, they are charged standard platform mediation fees (5%–15%) and bid blindly with delayed feedback loops. Because AppLovin owns the pipe, they don’t charge themselves fees. This zero-friction advantage lowers Axon’s net clearing cost threshold, allowing them to submit the highest net-clearing bid and win high-value impressions while capturing sub-100ms real-time auction telemetry. • AXON (The Compounding AI Demand Engine): Running directly on top of MAX’s live telemetry, Axon 2.0 evaluates 2.5M+ requests/sec across a single unified auction layer. Instead of selling brand awareness, it operates on a pure pay-for-performance/ROAS model. High-frequency deep learning predicts conversion value with unmatched precision creating a closed data flywheel where every impression won improves future model accuracy. • AppLovin Ads (The Open Self-Serve Inflection): AppLovin has generated billions in run-rate revenue while operating as a restricted, managed-only platform for a small pool of accounts. With AppLovin Ads now open globally via self-serve and direct Shopify integrations, millions of DTC merchants, web apps, and autonomous AI media buyers can deploy spend programmatically on demand with zero onboarding friction. Fundamentals ✅ Valuation ✅ Core Business ✅ Im long $APP

$APP AppLovin’s margins actually increased this quarter. • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 84% (+190 bps YoY) • Net Income Margin: 66% • Free Cash Flow Margin: 65% Flywheel is in effect.

Citi reiterates their $APP price target. BUY: $500 That’s an 84% upside from today’s price.

AppLovin is looking to acquire more data… “…,these models just need more data. That is consistent across any company in a modeling space. Getting more data into the system is important for us. We are not rushed. The business is doing really well. Every customer we get live is a data relationship on top of a business revenue relationship. Long-term, if we can add ways to get data into our system quicker, the business is going to have much more runway in the short term.” — Adam Foroughi, CEO of AppLovin $APP

Consumer business is growing by how much..?!

AppLovin just repurchased $1.4B of shares… “During the 3rd quarter, we repurchased and withheld a total of 4.1 million shares for $1.4 billion, a meaningful step up from the 2nd quarter, and ended the quarter with 331 million shares outstanding.” — Matt Stumpf - CFO of AppLovin $APP

DAMN… ‘Our core gaming business grew by 50% YoY’ — Adam Foroughi, CEO of AppLovin on Q3 ‘26 Earnings Call.

This report was good enough for me to come out of my grave. $APP +24% in one day!

$APP AppLovin is +8% today. It’s still undervalued.

Aria is entirely correct. This is an official chart published by AppLovin related to population growth vs. audience growth. Mobile gamers almost perfectly mirror the general U.S. population across every age bracket and gender split. These aren't just kids; they are everyday American adults, professionals, homeowners, and core consumers working full-time jobs. When you buy mobile gaming inventory through AppLovin, you are buying high-intent, mass-market consumer reach that directly scales across mainstream America. $APP

Let’s remember this chart in a year. • EPS: $3.76 (57% YoY) • Stock Price: -50% drawdown. $APP

“Even on a lower budget if you crack it right you can get good results.” This advertiser spent $15k in the span of 7 days and the campaign averaged a 169.82% D0 ROAS and a 216.14% D7 ROAS. In other words; $15k in ad spend returned $33k of ad spend. $APP

Here we go… Keep in mind the last time rates increased was July 2023.

“Less than 1% of advertisers in the world use @AppLovin yet we have north of $11B of annual ad spend on the platform and reach over a billion users daily.” — Rafael Vivas, Growth Marketing I mean how are you not bullish… $APP

AppLovin’s EBITDA has grown 10-fold over the past 5 years. 2026’s projections: 50%-55% YoY ($6.8B–$7B). Declining growth is not a bad thing, its normal. We're talking about a company still growing at 50% YoY while having FCF margins of 65%. it’s pure operating leverage. $APP

Morgan Stanley has reiterated their AppLovin price target. BUY: $650 -> $450 That’s a 34% increase from today’s price. $APP

$APP - 33 Analysts 20 -> Strong Buy 6 -> Buy 7 -> Hold Average Price Target $508 - thats a 52% increase from today’s price.

AppLovin is +11% in the last 3 trading days. Is the market starting to catch on? $APP

$NFLX When a company blatantly says they're doubling advertising revenue YoY, you pay attention. • Ad revenue scaling 100% from $1.5B to $3.0B • Advertiser base up +70% YoY (>4,000 active clients) • Ad-tier captures over 60% of new sign-ups in active markets • High-margin programmatic platform + live sports driving premium CPMs The market still views Netflix as a mature streaming subscription.

AppLovin's AXON pixels continue to climb. +3.27% WoW. An AXON Pixel is a tracking snippet placed on e-commerce storefronts to log checkout events and purchase values. This conversion telemetry feeds directly back into AppLovin’s AI bidding models, validating merchant ROAS and sharpening predictive ad targeting across the network. Pixels increase > model gets smarter > ROAS improves $APP

$META Do you see the disconnect? • Revenue: $60B (27% YoY) • Forward P/E: 17x (4 year lows)