Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Bitcoin is at its 200-week moving average tonight of ~$68k.
Historically, that’s been one of the best times to increase risk exposure to Bitcoin. It’s also when the way a Bitcoin company is built matters most.
Investors in Strive know our amplification comes only from preferred equity, and that we keep large cash reserves. They also understand we have no encumbered Bitcoin and are uniquely positioned to withstand dips. What I think is less understood is the value of having two deeply liquid preferred equities already trading, and how that lets us turn dips into a higher amplification ratio when Bitcoin recovers. Said another way, these dips can make us even more valuable because of the engines and structure we have in place.
Think about the three ways a Bitcoin company with amplification could go through a drawdown:
1. Bad debt terms. A drawdown can force you to sell Bitcoin at the worst possible time. You don’t just round-trip when Bitcoin recovers. You permanently impair shareholder value.
2. No engine. Bitcoin falls, your stock falls, Bitcoin recovers, and you end up roughly where you started.
3. Liquid preferred equity with real demand already in the market. You can issue more preferred while Bitcoin is cheap, and come out the other side with a higher amplification ratio than you went in with.
That third path is what Strive has done over the last year.
Last Dec 31, Bitcoin was ~$87.5K and our amplification ratio was 30%. By Sep 30, Bitcoin was back near that level at ~$83.6K. Our amplification was 55%.
Similar Bitcoin price, but with almost double the amplification.
Even as Bitcoin rose 43% off the June low, which on its own should have cut our amplification from 67% to ~47%, we held at 55%. After launching SATS and with tonight’s dip, our amplification ratio is now over 70%. Year to date, ASST is up ~51% while Bitcoin is down ~19%.
I believe this performance is primarily due to the structure we’ve very intentionally built with no debt and no pledged Bitcoin. That means no margin calls or debt maturities, and it lets us think long term and act opportunistically when Bitcoin dips.
I don’t think the market properly values this yet, and additionally rarely uses discounted forward-return modeling when assessing what a Bitcoin treasury company is worth. On a forward view of total returns under reasonable Bitcoin bull scenarios, I believe our common equity is undervalued, even though most mNAV calculations would show over 1x.
There is a lot more to discuss on this, but it’s why we removed mNAV calculations from our dashboard over the past week. mNAV captures a single moment in time and treats our operating company as if it were just a passive fund.
The discount we see in our equity is why we haven’t issued common equity over the past couple of weeks. We had some excess cash above our 18-month dividend reserve, and at these levels we’d view common issuance as dilutive, even with an mNAV over 1x, and ideally minimized unless we viewed it as necessary to invest in the long term success of our Digital Credit business.
Bitcoin dips and down years are rough for many investors, especially if you’re not used to Bitcoin’s volatility. As long-time Bitcoiners, we’ve always understood it. We built Strive on purpose not just to withstand that volatility, but to add value for our common shareholders through it.
We remain very constructive on Bitcoin risk going into 2027 and view these dips not only as an opportunity but as a blessing. We’ve used them to create additional value for our shareholders several times over the past year. It’s time to do it again.
$ASST $SATA $SATS
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
True North Ep. 86: They Want To Build A Bitcoin Bank
Featuring @PunterJeff, @AdamBLiv and @ZynxBTC.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:07 - A Wild Week In Markets
07:55 - $BTC Has Never Lost Over 4 Years
22:04 - Strategy Balance Sheet $MSTR $STRC
25:12 - Buybacks Or Bitcoin?
44:59 - Strive Balance Sheet $ASST
52:35 - Reinsurance And Uncorrelated Yield
01:08:16 - Is Strategy Building A Bitcoin Bank?
01:18:56 - Anthropic IPO Or $BTC?
01:28:56 - Final Thoughts
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
The performance of $SATA is going under the radar right now.
I have been impressed by how it has held the $95-$98 range, even with Bitcoin falling below $75k.
Not a penny spent on buybacks either.
Very good sign for $ASST.
A quiet week but a telling one.
Last week, $ASST added 29 BTC, taking the total to 43,153.
With Bitcoin at $75k, amplification sits at around 65%. I'm happy with that.
What stands out is the restraint on the common stock ATM. The fears were overblown and the team has barely used it, even with the stock trading at a premium.
That tells you they believe the stock is undervalued and they are acting like it.
I like how the balance sheet is being managed.
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Bitcoin has dropped roughly $10,000 since $SATS started trading last month. The fact that this fixed-rate preferred remains well above its IPO price suggests that distribution is reaching investors who specifically seek high yield and are not motivated to sell merely to purchase Bitcoin at the now-lower price. It's working.
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
There are times to be aggressive, and times to show restraint.
But we will always Strive to keep moving forward.
This is a marathon, and we will continue to do what we believe is best for delivering long-term, sustainable value for our shareholders.
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Wow, what a night! The @Strive 100th Dividend was truly something special. What a team we are invested in!
In the 3 hours we had, I had the pleasure of meeting the guys behind the $BTC strategy, including @PunterJeff, @AdamBLiv, @Werkman, and @IIICapital; key analysts like @longgamma; the original $ASST founders like @Arshia; and key members of digital strategy like @Trollstein.
I crossed paths with CEO @ColeMacro a few times throughout the night but didn’t get a chance to speak with him. He was clearly in high demand. Popular guy with the people, and rightfully so!
There were a few themes I picked up on as the night went on:
1) Men on a Mission 🎯
Every one of these guys was incredibly friendly. It felt like talking to one of the boys. But make no mistake, these guys are cold-blooded, Bitcoin-obsessed, number-crunching killers.
I bombarded several of them with questions, and they answered in intricate detail. The conversations I had were deeper and more constructive than nearly anything I’ve seen on X.
2) We Have the Most Ambitious Team in the Space 🚀
One thing became very clear to me: the team understands how important share price appreciation is, but they also understand that it doesn’t happen overnight.
There’s a plan. There’s a strategy. And they’re playing the long game.
We’re already at over 90% BTC yield to date, over 60% amplification, no debt, 2 preferreds, and significant liquidity coming out of a bear market. And we all know they’re not stopping here. They want to be the fastest growing company in the world.
X can get noisy with armchair quarterbacks critiquing every move, but thankfully, the team has its own plan.
WE NEED TO LET THEM COOK. 👨🍳⏳
3) It’s Very, Very Early ⏳
At the end of the day, this company is built around a perpetual bullish thesis on Bitcoin.
The core objective is to drive long-term share price appreciation through continued Bitcoin-per-share growth, utilizing perpetual preferred issuance alongside disciplined common share issuance.
Right now, very few people understand the potential of double-digit yields offered by digital credit.
But what happens when they do?
I believe preferred issuance and the mNAV story are still in their early innings. We haven’t seen anything yet.
4) One Goal: Keep Stacking Shares 📈
The company is building the rocket ship. My job is to stay patient and keep accumulating shares while the team works to grow Bitcoin per share over time.
I’ve been buying shares nearly every week since March, and I have no plans to stop anytime soon.
When Bitcoin really gets going, I believe this thing could move FAST. And I know I’ll be wishing I’d accumulated more or had more time to keep stacking.
Glad to have been a part of history. Great atmosphere, great food, and a special team, all hosted right here in my hometown of Austin, TX.
Can’t wait for the 500th and 1,000th Dividend parties! 🤘🏾🧡
Strive for Greatness. 🐐
$ASST $SATA $SATS
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Seeing a bit of confusion out there around BTC Yield (growing BTC per share) being classified as a short-term KPI.
The reason we classify it as a short-term KPI is because it is a metric we can influence through the course of our normal operations over relatively short timeframes. What we are effectively saying is that BTC Yield is the metric front and center as we run the business and capital markets each day.
Management teams need to focus on the metrics directly within their control to guide daily decision-making. For us, that means driving towards positive BTC Yield.
We believe the combination of growing BTC per share and maintaining high amplification while Bitcoin is near historically inexpensive levels creates the ideal setup to drive long-term outperformance of our common stock relative to Bitcoin.
Amplification acts as a rate-limiting function on common equity issuance. If you issue too much common equity, amplification can decline quickly. As Bitcoin moves higher and amplification naturally declines, maintaining our target means leaning more heavily on products and capital formation strategies that increase amplification (preferred) rather than decreasing it (common).
Amplification targets can and should adjust throughout market cycles, but issuing too much common equity during an early bull market move could erode amplification too quickly and take away some of the gain potentials as it is harder to move it back up to range as Bitcoin continues moving higher. Every action must be taken in balance, keeping you in position, with a focus on capturing and continuously growing value for shareholders over the long run.
Our incentives are built around driving that outperformance. Management’s long-term incentives come in the form of common equity, so we are focused on taking the actions today that we believe will create the greatest long-term outcome. This is why alignment of incentives to common equity holders is so critical.
“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” - Charlie Munger
Every day brings new decisions. Define your strategy, set your targets, and execute relentlessly toward extraordinary outcomes.
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Great night in Austin celebrating @Strive’s 100th $SATA dividend payment! 🥂
A special thank-you to @AdamBLiv for a conversation that meant a lot to me. I was surprised by how much our journeys have in common: family, curiosity, and the paths that led us to Bitcoin, the hardest money on earth.
Adam, much of what I’ve learned about Bitcoin and its integration into capital markets has come from the financial analysis you share day after day. Meeting you in person and finding that personal connection made the evening especially meaningful.
Your pioneering work has inspired me to help more people understand Bitcoin and its role in capital markets. I’d love to stay connected and explore how we could work together to expand the reach of what you’ve already built. You’ve helped pave the way, and I’d be excited to support that work and bring your insights to an even wider audience.
@ColeMacro, thank you for spending nearly 40 minutes sharing your unique perspective on the future and discussing how amplification structures affect retail and institutional investors, whose needs, constraints, and objectives are so different.
For me, it felt like an informal mentoring session with someone helping steer one of the most innovative companies in capital markets. What stayed with me was how reasoning from first principles brings clarity to complex decisions. Understanding the underlying mechanics and questioning assumptions can fundamentally change how we approach strategy. As an entrepreneur, that is a lesson I’m taking back into my own decision-making.
@PunterJeff, your intelligence and distinctive approach to risk analysis left a strong impression. I really enjoyed our conversation about how applied AI can help analyze enormous volumes of data, uncover patterns, and anticipate potential risks. The ability to turn that information into better judgment and earlier action is a powerful strategic advantage.
Thank you all for being so generous with your time and knowledge, and to the entire Strive team for bringing everyone together. This was an incredibly enriching evening, both personally and as an entrepreneur. I left with new connections, a clearer perspective, and even more motivation to build.
Strive’s remarkable growth as a Nasdaq-listed company shows what innovation can achieve. Hearing directly from the people shaping its future made me even more excited about what lies ahead.
I believe the best is yet to come.
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Joined Cointelegraph this morning to discuss the Binance hack, Strategy’s earnings call, & how Strive & Strategy are using Digital Credit as the primary source of Bitcoin accumulation & engine powering total returns for the upcoming bull market.
$ASST $SATA $SATS $MSTR $STRC
Has the Binance Hack Shaken Institutional Confidence in Crypto? [Ft. Matt Cole] #CHAINREACTION nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1wxWjleyO…
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Join our Q3 2026 Earnings Call now: nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1dKrPrXyY…
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Today was a blessing in disguise. I flew from Los Angeles to Austin for a dinner event that I paid $21 for 😂.
But let’s talk about what I got for $21 bucks.
For $21 I was able to meet the CEO of the company and I met some of the most noble gentlemen of the team. I have nothing but love and respect for these amazing gentlemen.
I literally had @ColeMacro answer my questions about the company for 45 minutes straight. I’m sure he wanted to throw my ass off the rooftop 😂.
But,
Without any hesitation @ColeMacro was able to answer every question and concern I had with confidence.
These gentlemen @PunterJeff @ColeMacro are the most transparent and honest people that a corporation doesn’t deserve 😂
Also shout out to @BitcoinPierre.
Bro you are a legend in my eyes (huge fan and thankful I got to meet you today) and you got my 💯 support brother.
Honestly I’m not star struck by celebrities. (Met several of them but they are just people entertaining)
I get star struck with people who build and create for a better world for tomorrow.
Thank you guys and God bless you gentlemen. @Strive
Dan Oksnevad retweeted
Happy 100th consecutive dividend day, to those who celebrate.
