John retweeted
I’m close to finishing what I’d consider the most important $IREN related deep dive to date.
The new report will be released to all X and Substack subscribers tomorrow.
More details coming very soon. Cheers!
John retweeted
Warren Buffett: "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."
That's the game with AI infra. Power, contracts and sites take years. Patience compounds. NFA
John retweeted
AOC is a champagne communist. She lectures hardworking New Yorkers about socialism while her campaign splurges nearly $50,000 on luxury hotels.
I fled communist Cuba. I’ve seen what happens when the political elite live like kings while ordinary families struggle to put food on the table.
AOC is preaching socialism while living in luxury. The hypocrisy is staggering.
John retweeted
All "experts" who told me that Nebius's Open Router stats didn't count are now celebrating that $NBIS finally doesn't have minimal inference revenue after Token Factory implemented prefix caching.
$CRWV, @FireworksAI_HQ, TogetherAI, Baseten, Modal have had prefix caching for over a year now.
Velocity matters. After a few of us devs explicitly pushed for public endpoint prompt caching on X, $NBIS Token Factory finally shipped it within months and the Open Router volume has gone instantly parabolic (scaling past 80B daily tokens just today). Get ready for $NBIS Token Factory to now take a massive chunk of public endpoint Open Weights Tokens processed from competitors like @FireworksAI_HQ & @togethercompute
Raw serving performance like Latency/TTFT and TBT or Tokens per Minute/Throughput was never the blocker for $NBIS Token Factory. Without public endpoints having input prompts with cached pricing user cost bottlenecks alongside Token Factory simply not being picked as a default routing option on routing platforms like Open Router, $NBIS Token Factory for sure had a massive impact to its true potential token volume as I have highlighted plenty of times before.
That single engineering friction point was holding back production grade volume from providers like Open router, Vercel AI Gateway and more. With $NBIS closing the feedback loop and delivering this as fast as they just did, the instant usage spike on Open Router to $NBIS Token Factory speaks for itself. Keep and eye on this chart as this will continue to balloon.
Software + Hardware Infrastructure execution doesn't get better than this. $NBIS
John retweeted
Replying to @TechCrunch
I feel like at this point we should be using 100% robots (“robot dogs” if you must) if we are sending something in place of a human…the only thing we should be genetically altering in canines is something that can fundamentally improve their health as our beloved pets. Imagine better hips for golden retrievers. Less joint dysplasia for Bernese Mountain Dogs. But this? There are just simply better solutions to the problem and better use cases for this technology
John retweeted
Good breakdown from Dan Roberts, on $IREN financials
People keep focusing on capex, debt and dilution without looking at how the actual GPU economics are structured.
Customer prepayments + committed financing cover almost all of the GPU cost, while the data center assets are a separate story. And those are being built without debt against them so far.
At least when it comes to $IREN, the bottleneck isn’t funding demand but still getting the capacity online.
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
John retweeted
$IREN: H2 Final Update from IR to Large Share Holder
Today, a group of very large shareholders held a call with IREN’s investor relations to get to the bottom of the H2 rumors.
1. H1 will be billing continuously from August 13th onwards. H1 was delivered according to original contract and specs. Any changes made will not interrupt billing.
2. H2 will be delivered in weeks.
3. H3-H4 will be delivered by late December 2026.
From what I can see, this more or less calms the rumors around H2. H1 revenue will be steady and strong, up ton45 day delay from roughly mid Oct for H2, and H3 minimal delays and H4 by late December. H1-4 all will be handed over to MSFT in 2026.
I was not part of call as these very large holders are mid 8 digits, 9 digits, and mid 9 digits measured in dollar value of IREN shares but I do talk to some of them.
$IREN: H2 Root Cause Analysis Update
I got more information tonight confirming that the issue stems from either MSFT AI model research team not communicating workload requirements to MSFT HPC systems team or that MSFT HPC team incorrectly translated those workload requirements to networking requirements.
MSFT HPC systems team communicates the requirements to IREN and defines the acceptance tests. The miss was both in specs provided to IREN and acceptance test for H1. This is not an error discovered while bringing up the network core to combine H1 and H2.
Yes if IREN had a principal networking engineer with deep knowledge of AI workload requirements, they could have prevented this but it's MSFT's responsibility to give the the full requirements as they own the model and platform layers.
Expectation is that H1 continues billing and new specs are implemented as maintenance over a 4 months. For H2, this is a design change that IREN has to respond to which will incur a 45 day delay. H3 is not most cabled at all so will not be delayed as much and be delivered at the same time as H4. H4, not cabled at all, will incur no delay and be delivered in Dec. H1-4 will all be billing exiting 2026.
For those wondering why cabling can result in a 45 delay and worrying that a 45 day must mean structural changes in liquid cooling or power distribution, you can watch this youtube video to understand how time consuming cabling can be. Credits to @pietrovl on good video pointing out how complex cabling can be. youtube.com/watch?v=_mw0cu1h…. Most likely, IREN is still using MPO since EBO came out just this July and hard to supply chain.
John retweeted
You can be globally compassionate as a person and still feel that your society should have careful borders and that local cultures matter, and should be preserved if they're clearly doing well.
These actually aren't in contradiction.
John retweeted
Just got off the phone with Aqib Talib…happy we were able to work thru our differences
John retweeted
Muslims have never assimilated peacefully in 1,400 years.
Socialism has never worked in 200 years.
And you want to vote for both?
John retweeted
#Paris is everything @TheDemocrats want in a society.
1) Woke
2) Progressive
3) Full of immigrants
4) Communist
5) Islamic
6) Anti-White
It's the whole package and look at what it gets you. @EmmanuelMacron
John retweeted
🚨 WOW! Leftist-Islamist rioters are trying to storm MACRON'S Presidential Palace in Paris, France
They are trying to DESTROY a police barricade.
This is what happens when you IMPORT and CODDLE the mob
Macron is missing in action. Macron is weak. He should RESIGN!
John retweeted
The "far-right" is developing flying cars, spaceships, and epic military technology.
The far-left is sterilizing themselves, killing babies, and a death cult that does nothing but destroy.
We are not the same.
John retweeted
California: 18 years after approval, our high-speed rail project has 0 miles of functional tracks, $95B over budget
Elon this month:
John retweeted
As much as weeks like this suck, smart investors know the AI trade has undeniable fundamentals. We are constrained by chips, power, and now capital that is preventing a bubbly overbuild. This market is disciplined on valuation and highly skeptical, creating immense opportunity.






























