Trading w/o the BS | Join the Outliers on YouTube, Substack, Discord - link in bio | 🇺🇸 Marine Vet | ft: Business Insider, Barchart, IG | MBA
Encinitas, CA
Joined July 2016
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I don’t see anything incorrect here.
Biggest piece I’d argue with is wrt being a sole operator vs working at a firm.
I think for most people operating at a firm is lightyears easier than being a solo operator.
If you can make it as a solo operator, the draw to a firm becomes circumstantial.
Everyone hates it when I point out that
- systematic trading is hard
- you can’t prompt your way to a profitable strategy unless you already know what you’re doing
- most people capable of making a success of it for their own account would do much better getting a job at a good trading firm instead
But this is literally the highest value thing I do in this site. Every person who takes my advice is hundreds of hours and tens of thousands of dollars saved!
dont size trades by guessing or feel. there are useful tools to help you logically frame position sizing.
youtu.be/vZE-zmQZY54
its like anything - ignore the elephant in the room.
when a new white belt starts jits, they're thinking how they're going to submit people. they struggle when theyre told their job is simply to try and survive 3 seconds longer than last round.
however, those that learn to focus on survival, all of a sudden find themselves surviving for half a round. 3/4 of a round. eventually, they get through a round without being hit with 62 submissions.
these are the ones that progress. they can actually learn offense because they have a sound defense to fall back on when they attack something and it doesnt work out.
in rugby, rather than focusing on the sick try its efficient movement of the ball which begins with a single pass. the pass itself, unsexy. wicked ball movement, aka chains of passes, hella sexy.
trading is no different at all. same exact thing. its a process based business. if you cannot learn to focus on the process itll be a really tough business to grow into.
reviewing $SPCX early performance to build a profile, Anthropic's early days im guessing will look a bit similar.
high vol out of the gate, all tenors coming down heavy. spike into first ER with near-term multiples of longer-term.
nobody has any idea what will happen but it'll be an easy tradable effect, short vol early on, long vol into ER, short vol through.
i dont dislike their response tbh.
OP there was doing a solid job projecting their assessment of reality, and Tom is calling that out.
Tom is obviously a smart guy, very talented, and I genuinely enjoyed The Front Office.
But there’s a particular brand of arrogance in the quant world that I find so fascinating. This almost reflexive condescension toward anyone outside their circle, as though they’re the only people who truly understand how markets work.
For a profession built around probabilities and uncertainty, the intellectual certainty is remarkable.
a massive breakdown of their revenue and expenses
youtu.be/CSSGR02_wQw
Anthropic "is burning cash like crazy" was one big lie, spread by the Ed Zitrons of the world.
For the first 6 months of 2026, Anthropic generated positive free cash flow of $3.4 billion ($3.9 billion of cash flow from operations less $482 million of capex).
And stock-based compensation was only $2.2 billion.. So even FCF less SBC was positive.
while i fully understand your perspective. i view it a little differently.
there is a balance between watering things down too much, which is useless at best - more likely harmful in reality. it misleads traders and creates the complete wrong expectations. bad foundation.
on the other side, if we go too deep, too fast - we are likely to alienate and confuse. this is why pretty much any learning we've all done is very much a building block approach.
throughout that process there is a natural selection and weeding out function.
from a creator lens, i view it as my job to span that continuum. which means some pieces will be to low level from some. some too high level for others, etc.
When I started YT i largely shared your perspective. It’s definitely shifted a bit over time. I can see different angles but as we both know a lot of it is based on your target audience.
I did some editing for a while and think there’s value in it but interestingly I found it drew in the wrong kind of people for my content, so I stopped.
But the equation is pretty simple. To grow, you have to appeal to a broader audience.
Is it possible to grow a YouTube channel without eventually becoming incredibly cringey and developing that unmistakable, bouncy YouTuber speech cadence?
It’s fascinating how people gradually start sounding exactly alike once they spend enough time optimizing themselves for an algorithm.
I’ve been banging out this trading workshop, which has pretty much consumed the little extra time I have between trading, training, and family. But once I’m done, I really want to push YouTube again, particularly the more raw, unedited format.
I watch YouTube sometimes and feel like I’m just watching someone read a script with exaggerated enthusiasm and a bunch of jump cuts.
And I genuinely wonder, what value does that offer anymore?
In a world where I can ask ChatGPT for the same information in seconds, the value of watching another person should increasingly come from their actual experience, judgment, personality, and ability to think through something in real time.
I want to hear how someone thinks, not how well they can read a script.
Maybe I’m in the minority, but I think there’s something refreshing about someone just turning on a camera and talking like a normal human being.
Erik - Outlier Trading retweeted
Lossdog opened the markets! 🔔
.@wearelossdog is a Chicago fintech company from Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan, the founders of thinkorswim and tastytrade. Its platform gives active investors and working professionals one place to optimize their portfolios and price their careers.
hey everyone! today at 5pm PT i'm doing a livestream working through some research i did for a pro member on a low risk collar strategy they're exploring for their portfolio.
youtube.com/live/3J7AW2UI5QA…
interesting - pretty static levels for something like this eh?
have you drawn Fibonacci's on the same timeframe? also seem to look interesting.
curious.
a note on this though - you will hear this essentially forever. i remember hearing it in 09. 2012, 2015, 2018, etc.
i find detaching my perception of rational, reasonable, etc to help a lot with this. i simply focus on what the market is and what different potential forward paths may look like with an expected return profile for those paths.
the downside to my approach, is its insanely unlikely that i will ever have a @michaeljburry style thesis.
its a trade off i accept.
