AdioKing

A GUY PUT $10.3M INTO $RDDT INTO EARNINGS. THE STOCK DROPPED 29% ON A BEAT. Thursday, a trader showed wallstreetbets his position before the print so he could not hide from it: $10,288,660 of $RDDT exposure. 72,000 shares at a $122.77 average. Long 620 March 2027 $100 calls, $3,093,298 in premium. And 347 short put contracts, strikes $120 to $210, financing the conviction. This morning he posted the post-mortem himself: "Roughly $5 million gone in one earnings report." The print was a beat. Revenue $895M, up 53%. EPS $1.40, up 75%. The kill shot was users: daily actives 130.3M, up 12%, missed the 133.7M the Street wanted, U.S. users down 2%, and management warned search referrals fell over 1 million a week in October, with Q4 users at risk of a low double digit drop. $RDDT closed at $91.73, down 29.22%, its worst day ever. Every short put strike he sold is now in the money. The shares bleed, the calls bleed, the puts bleed. Three positions, one direction. His own grade: "First things first: I was wrong." And the line every trader should tape to the monitor: "The market doesn't owe me a recovery, and being convinced I'm right doesn't make me right." $GOOGL beat and fell 12.64%. $INTC beat and fell 29%. $RDDT beat and fell 29%. This earnings season, the print is not the trade. Guidance is.

THE INDEX WAS LYING. I SAID IT AT THE HIGH. 24 days ago, in my October 5 Evening Recap, the $SPX closed at 7,773.95, a whisker from its record. The headline that night: "THE INDEX IS LYING, YIELDS ARE SCREAMING, AND SOMEBODY BET $23M AGAINST TAIWAN SEMI." What I wrote, word for word: "The index is lying to you. This is the narrowest rally of the year and the pros are positioned for a rug pull." "One of them is wrong, and the bond market has been right all year." That night: the 10-year at 5.31%, highest since 2002. New lows beating new highs 15 straight days. 20% of stocks above their 50-day. A $23.27M buy of $TSM $440 puts, 48.4% of all bearish premium on the tape. What happened next: the index lost 7,770 and never rebuilt the breakout. $TSM beat, raised, and still closed red at $422.25, putting those $440 puts in the money. $GOOGL fell 12.64% Thursday, its worst day ever, $500B gone in a session. $INTC gapped down 25% this morning. The 10-year that screamed at 5.31% is 4.98% now. I have been heavy cash since mid-October. That was the trade. Today the line is 7,627. Under it, 7,585 to 7,600 is where my cash starts working. A close back over 7,700 flips the read.

“Not your keys, not your crypto” 🔑

Chips carried the tape and the Dow barely showed up. $SPX +0.60% to 7,722.60. Nasdaq +1.18% to 26,477.81. Dow +0.03% to 52,377.57. Russell +1.17%. The move: a $63B financing vehicle buying $AVGO XPUs to lease to Anthropic, deliveries in 2027. $AVGO +4.00% to $342.33, $SOXX up almost 4%, $CRWV +7.94%. Six of 11 sectors still fell. Narrow tape, funded demand, real exposure on $AVGO's books. 10-year 4.99% into tomorrow's Fed decision at 2 p.m. ET. The line is 7,753. Lose 7,680 and I'm cash first. Tonight at 7 p.m. PT I'll tell you whether chips held the bounce. Full breakdown on Patreon, free as always. Link in bio.

$STX EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers: ✅ Non-GAAP EPS: $7.68 vs $7.43 expected ✅ Revenue: $4.2B vs $4.15B expected, up 59.7% year over year ✅ Guide: Q2 revenue $4.8B (plus or minus $100M) vs $4.15B expected, Q2 non-GAAP EPS $9.20 (plus or minus $0.20) vs $7.43 expected ⚪ After hours: shares down 5.4% Beat the Street on every line and the stock still dumps. That tells you the real bar was the whisper at $7.75. The line is the 2pm PT call: if management walks back that $4.8B guide, I drop the whole storage bounce idea. Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.

Monday's whales bought semis into FOMC: about $121M bullish vs $11M bearish. $SPX closed 7,676.77. $MSFT $23.6M calls lead, but $18.8M of $VIX calls is the hedge. $QQQ 705 is the line. FOMC Wed, PCE Thu. Full breakdown on Patreon, free as always. Link in bio.

CHIPS GOT THEIR STORY BACK $SPX closed 7,676.77, up 0.70%. The Nasdaq closed 26,169.38, up 0.82%. The Dow closed 52,361.58, up 0.28%. Chips ripped on Anthropic's IPO filing after two straight losing weeks for the big indexes, and the whole session was really one trade: AI risk back on, everything else along for the ride. Wednesday brings the FOMC decision plus $MSFT and $GOOGL after the bell, and that is the tape that decides whether this bounce means anything. WORTH A LOOK Anthropic filed to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker $ANT, reporting $16.29 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, up 1,304% from the same period a year ago. Numbers like that do the talking. $NVDA rose 2.39%, $MU rose 2.98%, $AMD rose 2.80%, $AVGO rose 2.33%, and the PHLX semiconductor index jumped 2.82%. The group is still off roughly 25% from its high and down 13% this month, so I am calling this a bounce with a story attached. A bottom needs a second day. $META went the other way, down 1.88% after announcing plans to raise $95 billion to fund its AI buildout. The market paid up for the AI dream in one name and charged for it in another, and that split tells you exactly where the nerves still are. THE TAPE Breadth was thinner than the headline. The typical $SPX stock rose just 0.21% against the index's 0.70%, with 289 names up and 211 down. $TSLA ripped 5.21% to $391.62 and $INTC climbed 4.04% to $90.47, while $NFLX fell 2.96%, $GOOGL fell 1.06%, and $AAPL fell 1.10%. Tech led, communication services lagged, down 1.57%. $WTI slipped 1.46% to $101.76 and Brent settled at $115.81 as Saudi-Iran talks took some premium out of crude. The 10-year sat at 5.00%. And Brazil got smoked: the Ibovespa fell 13.88% after Lula won Sunday's runoff, with $EWZ down 19.82%. A reminder that the rest of the world still trades politics first. SO WHAT Wednesday is the whole week. FOMC decision in the afternoon, $MSFT and $GOOGL after the close, then $AMZN, $INTC, and $SNDK on Thursday plus GDP and core PCE that morning. I keep flipping on whether this chip bounce is the AI trade healing or just a one-day sigh of relief, and that flip is the tell. Until Wednesday prints, new size is a no-trade zone for me. Small positions, big curiosity. The line is 7,600 on $SPX. A close under it and I drop the bounce idea entirely. Tomorrow morning at 8am PT I will tell you whether the bounce held overnight and what $MSFT and $GOOGL need to say to keep it alive. SEE YOU IN THE MORNING Full breakdown on Patreon, free as always. Link in bio.

$DELL just bought $6.32M of September 2027 calls while $AMD bought $6.18M of June 2027 puts. Two whales, opposite sides of AI hardware. $META led the short-dated tape: $2.31M of November 20 calls plus $1.92M expiring November 2. $TSEM added $1.69M of November calls into its November 2 earnings. The tape ran 3.9 to 1 bullish, $58.65M against $14.90M across 144 alerts, but the bearish side is concentrated in one name. What is $AMD hedging that $DELL is not?

Chips ripped on the Anthropic S-1. $SPX +0.70% to 7,676.77, Nasdaq +0.82% to 26,169.38, Dow +0.28% to 52,361.58. $NVDA +2.39%, $MU +2.98%, semis +2.74%. Anthropic filed with H1 revenue of $16.3B vs $1.2B a year earlier, and an $80.7B H1 net loss. Same AI story cut the other way at $META -1.88% on its up to $95B equity raise. Oil cooled, WTI $101.76, 10Y flat at 4.99%, Bitcoin near $79,800. Close sits just under 7,683-7,692 resistance. No breakout yet, support at 7,584-7,605 never tested. FOMC Wednesday decides it. Tonight's evening recap gets into whether this bounce has legs.

Friday's whales bought the dip into FOMC week: $43.5M bullish vs $2.9M bearish, short-dated all bull. $SPX closed 7,623.68, under 7,680. FOMC Wed, PCE Thu. I am buying small, saving real size for 7,584 or a close back over 7,680. Full breakdown: patreon.com/posts/173459487

BREAKING: Anthropic files its S-1 to list on Nasdaq as $ANT Anthropic filed a Form S-1 for Class A common stock to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under $ANT. The filing leaves share count and price range blank, and the registration is not yet effective, so $ANT is not trading yet. First half 2026 revenue was $16.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier, with an $80.7 billion net loss driven mostly by a $72.4 billion noncash charge. Operating loss was $693 million. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the underwriting syndicate. Coverage points to a late November debut window. Tape: $NVDA +2.5%, $QQQ +1.4%, $MSFT +1.2%, ES (S&P futures) +0.8%. My read: this gives the AI trade a real public benchmark. I am not chasing AI names on this alone, a $QQQ fade back under today's open kills the enthusiasm for me.

FUTURES ARE OPEN S&P 500 UP 0.3% 📈 NASDAQ 100 UP 0.5% 📈 DOW JONES UP 0.2% 📈 RUSSELL 2000 UP 0.4% 📈 GOLD UP 0.2% 📈 OIL DOWN 1.5% 📉 BITCOIN DOWN 0.4% 📉 All weekend the crowd braced for oil to gap up on the Houthi headlines. It opened down 1.5% instead and stocks went green. The fear trade got faded at the open. I'm still heavy cash. $SPX holds 7,600 into the week, and it takes a close above 7,700 with semis leading before I press anything.

7627 SLIPS, 7600 HOLDS $SPX 7,623.68 -0.52%. Dow 52,215 -1.23%, down 650. $QQQ 704.40 flat, chips finally stopped bleeding, $SOXX +0.5% after -6.5% Thu. Oil ran the day. Iran strike threats sent $WTI +4% to $103.45, Brent $117. Energy +2.6%, only 2 sectors green. 10Y back near 4.99%. SpaceX wants 80,000 cell sites per Bloomberg: $CCI +9.5%, $TMUS -7.4%. Good prints got sold again: $AXP beat $4.68 vs $4.47, fell ~4%. $WDC beat $4.64 vs ~$4.10, fell 2.5%. Morning levels: ES never reclaimed 7,680, $SPX closed 3 pts under the 7,627 pivot, $QQQ held 702 on the close. Kill switch was 7,600. It held. Heavy cash into the weekend. FOMC Wed Oct 28 is the event. Tonight 7pm PT evening recap: are futures defending 7,600? Full breakdown in the Close Recap below (free of course!) patreon.com/posts/173187459

$WDC EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers: ✅ EPS $4.64 vs $4.11 expected ✅ Revenue $4.38B vs $4.14B expected, up 55% ✅ Q2 guide: revenue $5.1B, EPS $5.80, gross margin 60% to 61% ✅ Gross margin 58.1% non-GAAP, 57.8% GAAP ⚪ Cloud was 88% of revenue, Client 7%, Consumer 5%, exabytes shipped 248 ⚪ Free cash flow $1.38B, dividend raised 17% to $0.175 ✅ After-hours +1.6% to $359.99 vs the $354.19 close CEO Irving Tan: "Fiscal 2027 is off to a strong start, with results exceeding expectations, driven by robust customer demand and disciplined execution." Hyperscaler demand and pricing are doing the work, and that is the tell $MU and $SNDK needed into their prints. I lean long storage on weakness from here. Kill switch is simple: if $WDC loses $348, today's regular session low, I step aside. Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.