Akshay P (@akspad) header
Akshay P (@akspad) profile picture

Hedge Fund PM | ex-@Citadel | EECS @MIT 🦫 Always curious + Do things that matter

New York, NY
Joined September 2017
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Akshay P retweeted
We build not just models but the whole stack - #1 on Speech Agent Arena!
Introducing Cartesia Managed Agents: our end-to-end voice agent platform for enterprise. #1 on @ArtificialAnlys Speech Agent Arena and @ServiceNow EVA-Bench, built by co-designing our voice models and harness as one system. Check it out → cartesia.ai/blog/managed-age…
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Akshay P retweeted
I've always believed that intelligence should come from simple, general building blocks that learn their own abstractions directly from raw data; in other words, the bitter lesson. I think we're finally seeing a real step towards AI that can learn from all data. Language modeling on raw bytes is a microcosm of this ideal, and to me it's a central problem in AI: if we can't build LLMs that learn end-to-end from bytes, how will we handle the rest of the world's data that we understand even less? Last year we introduced hierarchical networks (H-Nets) as a first step. Our new version finds up to 3-5x efficiency gains in controlled scaling law experiments, and at larger scale matches an open-source model trained on 11T tokens with ~10x less data and compute. The posts below walk through what we found and why we think it works.
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What if AI failures were described like ordinary software issues? Paste a link to an AI article and dedoomify turns down the apocalypse: "the model is misaligned" becomes the model has a bug" Get rid of AI doom! dedoomify.com
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Ramp data show that 80% of the top 1% of AI spenders are VC-backed, compared with only 13% of the median spender, suggesting that the circularity seen among AI hyperscalers and model providers also extends to token spending apollo.com/insights-news/ins…
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Akshay P retweeted
this is my quant
18 million miles traveled, 400 red hoodies, one 260-digit number, and 130+ former founders. We asked some of the people building Devin to tell us how they got here and what life at Cognition is really like. Here’s what they shared.
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A quick rebuttal - After automation: Cofounders Will Be the Unfair Advantage akspad.substack.com/p/after-… 2 people can now do what once took 6 people. But that doesn’t mean 1 is better.
Excited to announce my @every thesis statement: After automation, solo founding will be the default. Read it here: every.to/thesis-statements/j… Looking forward to expanding on this live on stage in NYC next month.
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BREAKING: Ukraine has carried out the world’s first medical evacuation of a human via a drone from the battlefield the 30th mechanised brigade of Ukraine managed to save their injured comrade from a minefield. Just absolutely insane.
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I built an open-source tool that turns newsletters and blogs into a podcast feed! Full narration (TTS) + optional summaries (Gemini) and you can run it on a schedule, then listen in your podcast app (I use Castbox) Let me know what you think! Code here: github.com/akspad/newsletter…
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mfw 0 @claudeai plans offer any security features... 🥴 claude.com/pricing
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Georgism could be a strong solution to the housing crisis: People should be free to own the fruits of their labor and capital, but the economic value of land and other natural resources should largely belong to society. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgi…
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Akshay P retweeted
Advice from a former trader: If the administration is considering imposing a diesel export ban, don’t spend a week publicly deliberating. That just gives trading houses ample time to accelerate exports of any inventory, driving up domestic prices regardless of the final decision.
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If people use agents to optimize their checking and savings accounts (i.e., moving money from banks offering low APYs to those offering higher ones) this could be really bad for the largest banks Watch the space going forward $JPM $BAC $WFC $C $USB $GS $PNC $TFC $COF $MS $XLF
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Looks like Instinct (instinct.com) is opening up invites... feeling pressure from @Muse hitting #1 on the App Store $META Reminder that Instinct is in talks to raise $1B at a $10B‼️ valuation. Might face a similar fate as @magic...
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Is posturing as an AI doomer just game-theory optimal? Doomer + Doom = I was right + I went viral! Doomer + No doom = We stopped it in time + I went viral! Optimist + Doom = Really bad (and the blame game begins) Optimist + No doom = I was right! But no glory (or virality)
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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Akshay P retweeted
We regret to inform our AI researcher Ronald that AI has replaced him. Sorry Ronald. Here's our team trying to tell his real voice from his cloned one. They were not good at it.
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China August economic data: Retail sales (a nominal figure): 0.4% yoy YTD fixed asset investment (a real figure): -7.2%. Our domestic demand tracker has fallen to levels even below that during the Shanghai COVID-19 lockdown. “What is unsustainable will not be sustained.”
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Akshay P retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
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Not very accurate - franchise models in other industries have been quite successful (if not more) vs company-owned. Makes sense if you need to scale quickly and value local insight. UPS vs FedEx Hertz vs Enterprise Taco Bell vs Chipotle McDonalds vs Starbucks Tesla vs Waymo
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