guitarist, producer
Indonesia
Joined September 2011
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bruuuuuuuh retweeted
The little boy sneaked into the destroyed house of his family and could get a bag of flour stored there before the famine, but the Israeli occupation forces were not happy with him.. So that, they sniped him..
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
What's going on in Indonesia re MSCI? The simple summary is this:
Locals cornered and wash traded a bunch of stocks up, artificially boosting market cap & liquidity with the goal of achieving index inclusion & unloading into passive buying. In other words, they tried to game MSCI.
This went on for years and was succeeding, but it eventually reached utterly egregious levels where almost half the market cap was "saham gorengan" (deep fried shares), and some of the said stocks were trading at P/E ratios of 500x. Retail investors also jumped in, as did local institutions who feared underperforming the local market cap weighted index (JCI).
The market distortions eventually became so blatantly obvious that even blundering MSCI eventually realized they were being gamed, but their blunt processes were not equipped to differentiate between "real" and "fake" prices (pro tip MSCI, real stocks trade at 5-10x PEs and fake ones >100x).
MSCI decided if their systems can't differentiate between the two, the easiest and most bureaucratic option was to just boot Indonesia out of the indices.
The lack of appropriate domestic market supervision & safeguards against market manipulation can be criticized. However, OJK (the local regulator) has already been taking action. The prices of many saham gorengan have already fallen 80% since MSCI announced earlier this year it was freezing new inclusions and considering downgrading Indonesia to FM (frontier). However, manipulation is not always that easy to clamp down on, some of the activity has moved to offshore vehicles, Indo retail and local benchmark hugging institutions also participated, and, it must be said, some of the players are politically connected, putting OJK in a difficult position. But they have been moving in the right direction & progress has been made.
That is what makes MSCI's most recent escalation of threatening to kick Indonesia not just out of EM into FM, but excluding it from FM as well, a little puzzling and draconian. MSCI's behaviour is in a way not that surprising though, as like rating agencies, it is bureaucratic and usually behind the curve. They kicked Nigeria out of the frontier index for instance after years of currency convertibility problems (during which it should have been excluded), but they did so right at the point when a new government had been elected and had just floated the currency.
My take is that while Indonesian conduct bears a meaningful portion of the blame, so does MSCI/passive. With passive growing to become such a large force in financial markets, it was only a matter of time before it was gamed, and what we are also seeing here is some of the stuctural problems/limitations of passive investing. Passive works best when its a small part of the market that can free ride reasonably efficient markets driven by active investors. However, when passive grows to become sufficiently large it can become distortionary, and capable of driving major market inefficiency and being gamed/arbbed.
Recent developments potentially provide a substantial buying opportunity for long term benchmark unaware investors, though it will require a long term focus and volatility tolerance to benefit from. Exclusion from major indices will structurally raise the Indonesian cost of equity and result in a potentially durable valuation discount. Long term investors can benefit from that in the form of higher returns priced into stocks, but that doesn't mean a fast (or even any) recovery in valuations will necessarily occur (though it could). There is still 8mths until MSCI's final decision so the market may be oversold short term (active might not dump until its actually excluded from indices), but there could also be a wall of forced selling coming mid next year.
Indonesia has other problems to be sure (governance under Prabowo), but that is not the proximate cause of the recent sell-off - it is purely fears of downgrade triggering passive and offshore active outflows (if Indonesia is small, off benchmark, and not a good news story, many active instos won't bother with it), and investors are thus front running those anticipated outflows.
I for one am a buyer.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Israeli soldiers were using quadcopter drone to target Palestinian children.
Why? Because they can do so for fun with full impunity.
The children were dragging water back to their family in Beit Lahia, yesterday.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Indigenous West Papuans have protested across Indonesia, facing tear gas and water cannon from police as they mark the 64th anniversary of the New York Agreement.
Al Jazeera’s Joel Evans reports.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Masalahnya satu: PERPRESNYA TUH BELUM ADAAAA!!!
Buka deh semua JDIH sampe puyeng kalau bisa nemu yang namanya Perpres 27/2026 hari ini.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Diblokade polisi di Flyover Semanggi, massa aksi putuskan long march menuju Bundaran HI. Video oleh @Seruni_ID
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Presiden terdahulu klo market ancur, rupiah melemah, dan rakyat udah berisik bakal cepet ditangani problemnya.
2013 parah banget rupiahnya tapi pak SBY take action jg saat itu jadi bisa ternetralisir
2015 budget berantakan parah, trus Pak Jokowi take action jg dengan manggil balik bu SMI.
2018 berantakan karena tariff Trump dan BI berani pre-emptive rate hike dan pemerintah adjust anggaran juga
Baru kali ini market ancur hampir 40% dan rupiah melemah terus tapi gak ada respon serius. Masih nyalahin BI, masih glorifikasi MBG, masih anti kritik tentang plesir ke LN, dll.
Problemnya itu. Global economy gk lagi baik2 aja. Spekulasi pasar saham gila2an dan credit issue mulai muncul. Kalau gaya kerjanya masih kayak gini.
Gw gak paham lagi mau seberapa hancur rupiah dan IHSG ketika nanti kejadian.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Tanggal 25 Mei 2026.
Mama Yasinta Moiwend dijemput dg Privete Jet Milik PT Jhonlin Group di Wanam dan di kawal oleh Ibu Kepala Distrik Ilwayab Crstin Rumlus dan Komdan Mandala Berangkat ke Merauke dan langsung ke Jakarta.
Keluarga semua tidak Tauh dan Hilang Kontak sampai tanggal 29 Mei 2026 tiba tiba mama muncul di media sosial dan media Meinstrim dan berita berita nasional terkait dg Laporan Ke Polda Metro Jaya.
Informasi dari Arnoldus Anda di Merauke
@Mulalt_
@Dandhy_Laksono
@BentalaRakyat @GreenpeaceID
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
WATCH OUT INDONESIA.
The US is putting massive pressure on Indonesia right now as part of its desperate plan to contain China.
The goal?
Turn Indonesia into a US client state that helps enforce an extended blockade around the Malacca Strait >> choking off China’s main energy lifeline.
We’re already seeing the signs: a flood of new hit pieces on the Prabowo government popping up everywhere.
Polymarket (that classic US psyop betting tool) is suddenly running projections on regime change.
Western-controlled media outlets are sliding into DMs with Brian Berletic and myself, fishing for angles >> because we were among the few who called out the last color revolution attempt and exposed the Soros/NED funding networks behind the 2025 unrests.
This is coordinated.
There’s a clear plan to destabilize Indonesia and flip it fully into the Western camp.
Don’t be surprised when your feeds (including X) get flooded with more and more negative coverage of the Indonesian government >> “authoritarian,” “corrupt,” “unstable,” the usual script.
Indonesia is too important: biggest Muslim country, strategic geography, resources, and balancing act between powers. The US doesn’t like that independence.
They want control over those sea lanes for any future Taiwan or South China Sea showdown.
Stay vigilant, Indonesia.
Separate real domestic issues from foreign-funded chaos.
The hybrid war playbook is in full swing >> info ops, NGOs, media smears, and political pressure.
Don’t let them turn your country into the next pawn.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Japan killed four million Indonesian Muslims. That’s close to the number of Jewish people killed during the Holocaust.
Tens of thousands of Indonesian Muslim women were raped by Japanese men.
Don’t talk to *US* about Islamic or Indonesian culture.
Japan’s right wing says Muslims will “destroy” Japan.
Meanwhile, Japan’s own embassy in Indonesia is warning Japanese citizens not to rape Indonesian children.
Read that again.
The trash screaming about “protecting culture” are living in a country whose diplomats have to remind its citizens that foreign children are not sex toys.
Maybe start there before lecturing Muslims about civilization.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Tiga pertanyaan untuk Mendikti soal LPDP digembleng TNI:
1. Sejak kapan warga sipil yang lolos IELTS, esai, dan wawancara LPDP dianggap kurang disiplin?
Mereka bahkan menghitung sendiri pajaknya tiap tahun di SPT, sesuatu yang (mungkin) prajurit tidak diwajibkan lakukan dengan kerumitan yang sama.
2. Sejak kapan warga yang pajaknya dikorupsi bertahun-tahun tapi tetap bayar PPN setiap belanja dianggap kurang berkebangsaan?
3. Kalau tujuannya supaya awardee balik ke Indonesia, kenapa solusinya pelatihan baris-berbaris dan bukan perbaikan ekosistem riset, gaji dosen, dan kepastian karier akademik di dalam negeri?
Yang bikin doktor enggan pulang itu bukan kurang nasionalisme. Tapi karena kurang lab, kurang dana riset, dan kurang penghargaan.
Kalau pemerintah serius ingin awardee pulang dan berkontribusi, cobah perbaiki ekosistem akademik dalam negeri.
Itu jauh lebih sulit, dan jauh lebih dibutuhkan.
Menurut saya, mengirim calon master dan doktor ke barak untuk diajari “kebangsaan” itu membalik logika.
Yang lazim di banyak negara: kadet militer yang dikirim ke kampus, bukan sebaliknya.
Jangan remehkan warga sipil yang duitnya bocor terus tapi masih setia bayar pajak.
Lagian, tokoh-tokoh kebangsaan terbesar republik ini sebagian besar sipil. Hatta, Sjahrir, Sukarno muda, Kartini, Tan Malaka, Agus Salim.
Tidak satu pun dari mereka yang nasionalismenya dibentuk di barak.
Mereka jadi nasionalis karena membaca, berdebat, hidup di pengasingan, dan berhadapan dengan ketidakadilan kolonial.
Bukan karena baris-berbaris.
😬
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Ini Ibam, bicara sendiri agar Ririe terlindungi.
Betul, ketika belum jadi tersangka, saya dapat ancaman: buat pernyataan "mengarah ke atas" kalau tidak kasusnya "akan diperluas".
Saya tolak, ngga mau bohong & zalim.
Tiga minggu kemudian, saya jadi tersangka.
Saya tolak bukan untuk lindungi Nadiem, tapi karena memang ngga pernah ada arahan dari Nadiem ke saya agar pengadaannya jadi Chromebook semua.
Seperti yang terungkap dari 22x sidang, tidak ada sama sekali arahan dari atas seperti itu. Saya hanya diminta memberi masukan netral dan objektif sebagai konsultan.
Artinya, ketika menerima ancaman tersebut saya dihadapkan ke dua pilihan:
Berbohong mengarang cerita menuduh orang lain untuk menyelamatkan diri sendiri.
Atau, berpegang kepada integritas, kejujuran, dan kebenaran yang saya yakini, dan menolak untuk berbohong.
Dengan shalat istikharah dan kesadaran penuh akan risikonya, saya memilih jalan yang kedua: kejujuran.
Insya Allah selalu berpegang pada kejujuran akan berujung pada kebaikan untuk saya, Ririe, dan keluarga kecil kami. Kalau tidak di dunia, maka di akhirat kelak.
Lalu jawabannya apa ketika saya menolak untuk berbohong? "Oke, kami perluas.”
Saya tidak berdaya. Ya Allah, apa lagi yang bisa kami lakukan ketika dihadapkan pada pilihan seperti itu? Pegangan kami hanya prinsip integritas dan kejujuran.
Ketika konsekuensinya beberapa minggu kemudian saya dinyatakan tersangka, kami hanya bisa memperbanyak istighfar dan ikhtiar.
Kami jalani dan hormati proses hukum yang ada dengan tabah, kami berniat jelaskan di persidangan fakta-fakta yang membuat terang, kami masih percaya dengan hukum Indonesia.
Mungkin ngga banyak yang tahu, tapi Ririe istri saya adalah seorang sarjana dan magister hukum. Di Belanda dulu kami banting tulang nabung dan berhemat banyak, supaya bisa bayar uang kuliah S2 Ririe.
Dari Ririe, saya belajar banyak tentang hukum Indonesia, apa saja yang mungkin terjadi, dan bagaimana hukum kita tetap memungkinkan pembelaan yang efektif.
Baik, mari berjuang di persidangan, luruskan seluruh tuduhan. Satu persatu fakta di persidangan muncul dengan terang benderang, satu persatu tuduhan bisa kami bantah.
Sampai akhir rangkaian sidang, 57 orang saksi dihadirkan, tidak ada bukti saya menerima keuntungan dari perkara ini, tidak ada bukti masukan saya karena konflik kepentingan, tidak ada bukti saya mengarahkan.
Yang terungkap malah saya sebagai konsultan sudah menyarankan Chromebook diuji dulu, pejabat menolak pengujian dan memutus Chromebook, nama saya dicatut di SK, masukan saya dipelintir.
Kami merasa pembelaan hukum kami sudah maksimal, kebenaran sudah terungkap, tinggal menumpu harapan pada keadilan dan kebijaksanaan dari majelis hakim yang mulia, yang kami merasa sudah sangat objektif dan penuh kearifan sepanjang persidangan.
Namun, ketika JPU menyebutkan tuntutan 15 tahun penjara, denda Rp1 miliar, uang pengganti Rp16,9 miliar subsider 7,5 tahun penjara tambahan...
Ini titik kezaliman yang sangat terang benderang, tekanan kepentingan yang sangat kentara, saya memutuskan pembelaan saya tidak lagi bisa hanya di persidangan.
Besok saya akan sidang pembelaan (pleidoi) dan kami bersurat kepada Presiden @prabowo Subianto serta @KomisiIII DPR, untuk memohon perlindungan hukum dari kriminalisasi, ketidakadilan, intimidasi, serta pengkambinghitaman yang sudah sekentara ini.
Kami takut untuk bicara? Takut ada intimidasi lain? Itu risiko yang jelas, tapi kami tidak gentar. Tuntutan 22,5 tahun dan belasan miliar yang tidak mampu kami bayar mungkin dianggap akan membuat kami terdiam, tapi kami malah semakin berani untuk melawan kriminalisasi ini.
Mohon bantuan, dukungan, dan perlindungannya dari masyarakat Indonesia, dari pekerja kreatif dan pekerja pengetahuan, serta dari semua yang ingin bantu negara atau takut dizalimi negara.
Kami berjuang bukan untuk kami sendiri, tapi agar tidak ada lagi kriminalisasi dan ketakutan bagi mereka yang tulus mau bantu Indonesia. Kami masih percaya Indonesia bisa menjaga dan menghadirkan keadilan dalam kasus kami.
ALT Tangkapan layar artikel Tempo dengan judul "Ibrahim Arief Mengaku Diintimidasi Sebelum Jadi Tersangka" MANTAN konsultan teknologi Kementerian Pendidikan, Kebudayaan, Riset, dan Teknologi (Kemendikbudristek), Ibrahim Arief alias Ibam, mengaku menerima intimidasi sebelum penyidik menetapkannya sebagai tersangka dalam kasus dugaan korupsi pengadaan Chromebook. Ia menyatakan seseorang mengirim pesan yang memintanya membuat pernyataan tertentu disertai ancaman. “Saya diminta membuat pernyataan yang mengarah ke atas, dengan ancaman bahwa jika saya tidak bisa membuat pernyataan seperti itu, perkara ini akan diperluas,” kata Ibam dalam konferensi pers di sebuah restoran di Jakarta Pusat, Selasa, 21 April 2026. Sumber: https://www.tempo.co/hukum/ibrahim-arief-mengaku-diintimidasi-sebelum-jadi-tersangka-2130659
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
Tonton kepanikan pejabat saat upaya mengkambinghitamkan Ibam runtuh di sidang 👇🏼
Masukan netral Ibam, dipelintir pejabat jadi Chromebook, sambil bilang itu arahan Ibam.
Pejabat tersebut akui terima aliran dana, dan membocorkan spek Chromebook ke vendor pemenang.
Tapi dia bebas, tidak jadi tersangka sama sekali, sedangkan Ibam dituntut 15 tahun penjara, denda Rp16,9 miliar, dan tambahan 7,5 tahun penjara jika tidak bisa bayar.
Dan kami sudah pasti tidak bisa bayar, Rp16,9 miliar itu dari salah paham surat saham, dan hanya "patut diduga" tanpa adanya bukti aliran dana sama sekali.
Tapi kebenaran sudah terungkap lewat fakta-fakta di persidangan.
Dari semua kebenaran yang terungkap, perkara Chromebook untuk kasus Ibam ini sebenarnya sederhana.
Ibam sebagai konsultan, sudah netral, profesional, tanpa kewenangan, tanpa kuasa, namun dikambinghitamkan pejabat-pejabat yang terlibat dalam pengadaan.
Kita tentu berharap proses hukum berjalan secara adil, jernih, dan berdasarkan fakta yang terungkap di persidangan.
Namun tuntutan 22,5 tahun yang tidak masuk akal dan penuh ketidakadilan seperti menampar harapan kami tersebut. Kekuatiran kami terhadap adanya kriminalisasi terstruktur semakin dalam.
Kini harapan kami tertumpu pada teman-teman sekalian yang membaca pesan kami.
Tolong, suarakan ketidakadilan ini.
Kepada Presiden Prabowo, kepada Komisi III DPR, kepada siapapun yang kita tahu punya kepedulian dan kemampuan menyediakan perlindungan hukum dari kriminalisasi.
Sembilan hari menuju putusan. Kita masih bisa jadikan perkara ini preseden baik bagi semua profesional yang ingin berbakti bagi negara dengan keahlian mereka.
Bahwa tetap bisa ada perlindungan hukum dari kriminalisasi bagi seluruh pekerja pengetahuan yang ingin bantu Indonesia.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
This user stole our post, removed our watermarks, and claimed this “playbook” is theirs after we spent hours working it.
@nikitabier is this act of plagiarism a bannable offense?
It doesn't get more textbook than this:
Every step of our March 3rd "Conflict Playbook" has been outlined on this oil price chart.
It began with Steps #1 and #2 when Trump sent an "armada" to Iran and ramped up threats.
On February 27th, we saw the "Friday night strikes" from Step #3 of our playbook.
This led to Step #4 as risk premiums were rapidly priced-in.
On March 3rd, President Trump began saying the war could last "forever," as expected in Step #5.
Then, on Friday and last night, markets began pricing in Step #6, a prolonged conflict sending oil prices to $120/barrel.
Finally, today at 3:20 PM ET, President Trump hinted at "conditional de-escalation" from Step #7 of our Conflict Playbook.
We are now nearing Step #8. Keep following along.
bruuuuuuuh retweeted
China is preparing to demolish the Beytullah Mosque, one of the largest and most historic mosques located in the city of Gulja in East Turkistan. Occupying forces have completely surrounded the mosque and are continuing preparations for its demolition.
The Chinese authorities have already demolished more than 16,000 of the approximately 30,000 mosques in East Turkistan and have completely banned the remaining mosques for East Turkistani Muslims. While many mosques remain closed, some have been converted into bars, night entertainment venues, and music and dance centers.
The Beytullah Mosque was originally built in 1773, expanded in 1865, and restored in 1981. The destruction of this historic place of worship, which has served the faithful for centuries, is yet another example of the attacks on the religious and cultural heritage in East Turkistan.
I call on the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the International Union of Muslim Scholars, the Presidency of Religious Affairs of Türkiye, and all Muslim countries to take responsibility and act to stop these aggressive policies carried out by China, which continues its genocide policies in East Turkistan and attacks Islam, mosques, and the freedom of belief and worship.
Hidayet Oğuzhan
East Turkistan Maarif Movement
@ittihadululema @OIC_OCI @diyanetbasin @DIBSafiArpagus
