Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech) profile picture

President & COO @TheFuturumGroup

Boston, MA
Joined April 2023
Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)Photo by Dan O’Brien (@danOBtech)
Dan O’Brien retweeted
Our equities research team @ETRnews led by @rolfbulk has updated its post-election capex forecast leaving our '27 estimate of $3.1 Trillion and our '28 estimate of $4.0 Trillion intact. The range has been widened, but the overall view from our team is that the buildout is economically too important and in states like Texas it would backfire if democrat backed moratoriums or slowdowns hurt the economy, which is the largest factor in its midterm wins. We ultimately believe we will see substantial renegotiation and concessions from data center builders to appease community concerns, but these will be solved. What did change is that if alignment fails and projects cannot be revitalized our range for 28 could drop from $4.1 to $2.7 trillion. We don't see that as the likely scenario, but this is the downside at play.
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The challenge for technology companies is not a shortage of channels, content or campaigns. It is making every part of the GTM motion work together. As pipeline expectations increase and buying journeys become more complex, fragmented execution creates friction between the story a company tells, the audiences it reaches and the demand it generates. 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝘂𝗺 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮, 𝗚𝗧𝗠 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀. It brings together four connected capabilities designed to carry that motion from attention to action: 🔹 𝗖𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗘 stories that matter. 🔹 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗖𝗛 the right people. 🔹 𝗘𝗡𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 with credibility that sticks. 🔹 𝗔𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗩𝗔𝗧𝗘 demand you can act on. Each capability has a role. Together, they create continuity from attention and visibility to trust and impact. The result is a more connected approach to GTM execution, with each capability supporting what comes next. Explore Futurum Media: futurumgroup.com/media #FuturumMedia #GTM #B2BMarketing
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
More users shouldn't have to mean slower AI. In @Signal_65 RAG testing hosted via @TensorWave, AMD Instinct MI355X delivered ~42% lower p99 latency and roughly 2x the concurrent-user headroom before breaching the evaluated SLA: bit.ly/45hAvl3
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
Any enterprise working on @AnthropicAI Claude Opus for agent work gets more of the work done for less money by moving to yesterday's brand-new Opus 5.5, and in our testing the gap is...pretty large. Opus 5.5 gets more work done for more people, at a noticeably lower price than Anthropic offered before, as measured by @Signal_65 PINNACLE. ➡️ 2.3x fewer weighted errors than Claude Opus 5, and 100% of the multi-step jobs finished end to end against 95% ➡️ 34% less per correct task (!!), $0.40 against $0.60, on a list price 20% below Opus 5 with cache reads at 5% of input rather than 10% ➡️ Fabrication in retrieval answers down from 7.6% to 2.8% ➡️ It also passes Claude Fable 5.1 with 1.3x fewer weighted errors at 63% less per correct task Full comparison on the Signal65 PINNACLE results views at pinnacle.signal65.com
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
The industry spent this week debating the AI pacing argument Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei set off with "We Must Pace the Frontier." We asked 50 large-enterprise buyers from our ETR Community: 70% say the labs should slow down, but only 20% read lab-proposed slowdowns as genuine safety measures. The detail that makes this worth publishing sits in a question nobody would think to look at. Among the 72% who want more regulation, 86% cite safety and misuse risk, but only one respondent cited slowing the pace so their own organization could keep up.
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
Highest satisfaction in our universe. Lowest cost score of any tool we track. Users love it. Buyers argue with the bill. So far nobody has had to choose.
A year ago, Anthropic trailed OpenAI by 10 pts with the Global 2000. Today, it leads by 25. In the same survey, its midsize and small accounts fell 8 pts. The deepest budgets are deepening. The tail is pulling back. Preliminary October TSIS, still in the field.
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
💸💸Closed Model AI pricing is broken, and the vendors proved it with their own product lines 🤖🤖 Hosted AI crossed a threshold this month, in intelligence and in stability at once. In our testing the newest models from @OpenAI @Google and @AnthropicAI finish 98% or more of the multi-step enterprise jobs they start and rarely invent an answer, and they do it for roughly the same dollar per finished job the previous tier charged. @Signal_65 PINNACLE is our independent benchmark that scores AI models on real multi-step enterprise work and prices every correct task on the full API bill, or on the rented GPU node an open model runs on. The three snapshots connect each lab's models from the cheapest correct task upward. OpenAI put the new generation at the old price, and in our testing the ladder goes straight up between GPT-5.6 and GPT-6. ➡️ GPT-6 Astra at medium effort costs the same per correct task as GPT-5.6 Sol, about 94 cents, with 2.3x fewer weighted errors. A list price 2.5x higher was cancelled by 2.9x fewer input tokens per finished job. ➡️ Maximum effort on Astra buys another 1.8x fewer errors for 1.6x the cost and the top score on the board. The same dial on Sol bought nothing, so reasoning effort only pays on the new model. ➡️ GPT-5.6 Luna clears the open-weight baseline for 7 cents a task, the cheapest correct task from any hosted model we have tested. The Anthropic ladder has the new generation at the top and a broken rung at the bottom in our testing. ➡️ Claude Haiku 4.5 lists at half the price of Claude Sonnet 5 and costs more per correct task, $1.09 against $0.62, because it finished 29% of the jobs and every failed attempt is billed. A router that sends easy work to the small model sends it to the dearest rung here. ➡️ Sonnet 5 is the value rung of the line. Claude Opus 5 costs 2.2x Sonnet for 1.2x fewer weighted errors. ➡️ Claude Fable 5.1 is the Anthropic entry in the new generation and the one that did not arrive at the old price, 1.7x fewer errors than Opus for 1.8x the cost and the most expensive correct task from any hosted model on the board at $2.46. Google shows the whole curve, four open-weight Gemma 4 builds priced on a rented B300 node and two settings of hosted Gemini 3.8 Flash, and in our testing the ladder turns in the middle. ➡️ The Gemma builds get cheaper per correct task as they get better, because job completion climbs from 17% to 54% faster than the token bill grows. Below the turn the better model is also the cheaper one and there is no trade-off to make. ➡️ Gemini 3.8 Flash at medium effort makes 11x fewer weighted errors than the best Gemma for 1.5x the cost, 54 cents against 35. Inside the Google catalog the hosted Flash beats running the open weights yourself at the same money. ➡️ The high effort setting adds 16% fewer weighted errors for 20% more. Above the turn you are paying for reasoning, not completion. The score and the price of a correct task for every model we have tested, hosted and open, are live on the PINNACLE results views at pinnacle.signal65.com
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
AI leaderboards are lying to you. The question was never which model is smartest. It is which one finishes the job on your data, at a price you can defend. Signal65 launched PINNACLE today to answer it.
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
That’s a wrap on AI Unleashed 2026. Thank you to all our speakers, partners and participants, including @salesforce Chair & CEO @Benioff, @Snowflake CEO @RamaswmySridhar, @MarvellTech CEO Matt Murphy and @Applied4Tech CEO Gary Dickerson. Missed the live sessions? Watch on demand: sixfivemedia.com/summit
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Excited for our 7th The Six Five Summit: AI Unleashed that opens tomorrow. @Salesforce Chair & CEO @Benioff kicks things off, followed by @RamaswmySridhar CEO of @Snowflake headlining Day 1, Matt Murphy CEO of @MarvellTech opening Day 2, and Gary Dickerson CEO of @Applied4Tech bringing things home on Day 3. Each day will feature tracks built around a different pressure point: infrastructure, the edge, and the silicon underneath it all. sixfivemedia.com/summit
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
$CRM CEO @Benioff kicks off our 7th annual Six Five Summit starting tomorrow! Amazing lineup to follow including keynotes sessions from the CEOs of $SNOW $MRVL and $AMAT Join us Tuesday - Thursday. 💪🏻🚀
The Six Five Summit: AI Unleashed 2026 opens tomorrow. @Salesforce Chair & CEO @Benioff kicks things off, followed by @RamaswmySridhar CEO of @Snowflake headlining Day 1, Matt Murphy CEO of @MarvellTech opening Day 2, and Gary Dickerson CEO of @Applied4Tech bringing things home on Day 3. Each day will feature tracks built around a different pressure point: infrastructure, the edge, and the silicon underneath it all.
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
Two very important points here. 1. Open source models will be the highest utilization/consumption over closed source. 2. Frontier will still realize most of the economics because premium intelligence commands an economic premium
More data than open-source AI is taking share from OpenAI and Anthropic. Open source has gone from 28% token share to 62% token share @vercel over the last 2 months. Chart from @rauchg Super impressive given that the sum of OpenAI and Anthropic accelerated in July. So net token/AI infra demand accelerated even more than the acceleration we saw at the frontier. And suspect Grok growing even faster than open-source and we saw some of this in the @tryramp data. Open-source AI taking share is positive for AI infrastructure demand as it lowers margins at the model layer and an open-source token costs just as much compute to produce as a frontier token. Nothing about open-source AI inference is “free.” Most likely end state IMO is that closed, frontier tokens are 60-90% of economic value but only 15 to 25% of tokens.
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𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝘂𝗺 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲. Enterprise technology decisions are being made in a market that moves faster, shifts more often, and demands stronger signal than traditional research models were designed to deliver. AI Decision Intelligence is built for that reality. Futurum Forward brings together analyst judgment, purpose-built AI agents, proprietary data, governance, and real-time distribution to support better decisions across the technology ecosystem. For enterprise buyers, technology vendors, investors, and operators, this means intelligence that is closer to the decision, faster to the market, and built for the speed of the AI cycle. Explore Futurum Forward: 👉 futurumgroup.com/futurum-for… #FuturumForward #AIDecisionIntelligence #MarketIntelligence
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
New Futurum note on Memory. Demand and ASPs are inflecting: we now model 2Q26 conventional ASPs +50% QoQ (37% prior), 3Q +18% (11%), 4Q +10% (5%). Higher CPU DRAM demand from agentic AI adds to a market already tight on HBM. $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung.
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
I am thrilled to announce that we have closed on our acquisition of ETR (Enterprise Technology Research) bringing Wall Street’s premier technology intent spending data together and its extensive list of institutional clients under The Futurum Group umbrella. Welcome to Futurum, team @ETRnews. We cannot wait to bring our new combined offerings to our customer ecosystem. 👏🏻
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Better decisions require better signal. @TheFuturumGroup has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire @ETRnews, a planned combination designed to strengthen how organizations validate strategy, understand market movement, and act on decision-grade intelligence. ETR’s longitudinal enterprise technology spending data is expected to add new depth to Futurum’s intelligence, advisory, subscription research, custom research, and strategic content capabilities. Explore what this planned acquisition means for technology leaders, investors, and enterprise teams 👉 buff.ly/wUrerxl #TheFuturumGroup #ETR #MarketIntelligence
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
Wall Street already runs on ETR's signal. Today, Futurum signed a definitive agreement to acquire the dataset institutional investors trust to read enterprise tech spend. Here is why it matters. → 9,000+ enterprise IT decision-makers feeding real spending intent, not vendor-sourced guesses → $2 Trillion in tracked technology spend that hedge funds and institutions use to call the print before the print → The earliest read on who is winning and losing budget across every major name in tech → Now sitting on the Futurum Intelligence Platform, paired with our analysts, our coverage, and our reach The legacy research firms tell you what happened last quarter. This data tells you what is happening right now. Research built on evidence. This is what AI-native looks like when it has the data to back it up. Futurum and ETR. Subject to customary closing conditions.
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Dan O’Brien retweeted
One of the biggest requests I’ve gotten was for more short-form video content so we launched a new FE YouTube series with 5-10 minute earnings breakdowns & company deep dives. So far we’ve covered: • Everything you need to know about SpaceX IPO • Why $MELI is one of best opportunities in market • How $TE fits into power bottleneck behind the AI buildout • Why I own $IREN & why market may be underestimating its $NVDA alignment & hard-to-replicate power footprint • Earnings reactions from $PLTR, $DOCN, $AMD, $ARM, $DDOG, $TMDX, $ASTS, $HIMS, $NBIS, $EOSE, $ONDS, $ZETA & $NVDA I plan to keep posting 6 to 8 videos per week, so let me know which earnings or companies you want me to cover next.
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The next major compute category may not be on Earth. 🛰️ As AI infrastructure demand increases, hyperscalers and governments are running into physical constraints across power, cooling, permitting, and grid capacity. Orbital computing is quickly becoming a serious conversation for the future of AI infrastructure. 🎙️ Join @BrendanBurkeX, Research Director at @TheFuturumGroup, and @smithksa, VP & Practice Lead, for a live discussion examining findings from Futurum’s latest report, 𝘖𝘳𝘣𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘊𝘢𝘯 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 $1 𝘛𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘈𝘥𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘣𝘺 2030. The discussion will cover: • What orbital computing is • How reduced launch costs are changing the path to commercial scale • The roles SpaceX, hyperscalers, governments, and semiconductor vendors are playing in building this emerging ecosystem 📅 Live Webinar Thursday, May 21 🕙 10:00 AM PDT 👉 Reserve your spot: buff.ly/5aKhEiA #Futurum #OrbitalComputing #AIInfrastructure #SpaceTech
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