smolting X chino dad wasting time
Fishers, IN
Joined July 2014
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1/ threads about how to think different L1 as countries or cities, and use to predict the likely winners?
think about how US as a country become rich, the past 50 years or so, since WW 2.
what would be the major reasons?
3 major things:
Energy, Culture + Law
founder vs manager
Marc Andreessen revealed how Harvard Business School was built on a broken 1941 theory, and how it's now collapsing...
Andreessen co-founded Netscape in 1994 and a16z in 2009.
He has sat on Meta's board since 2008.
He has spent 30 years backing founders and watching managerial CEOs lose to them.
The pattern traces back to one book: James Burnham's The Machiavellians (1941).
Burnham argued every great company had been founder-run.
Henry Ford ran Ford. Bob Noyce ran Intel.
Today, Elon Musk runs Tesla, SpaceX, and Starlink.
Then, he said, something broke.
Between the 1880s and the 1920s, a new philosophy replaced the founder. It was called managerialism.
The professional manager would now hold a portable skill, usable across any business.
The consequences were:
- Harvard Business School
- Stanford Business School
- Management as a universal skill
- The 1970s conglomerate
"That assumes the managers are going to do a good job," Andreessen says.
For 30 years, they haven't.
Managers can run something static, he says. Soup is soup. A bank is a bank. A car is a car.
But when the industry changes, the manager freezes.
Look at SpaceX.
"Imagine being a professionally trained manager, trained at a top management school, working for a rocket launch company, competing with SpaceX."
Then Elon's rockets started landing on their butt.
"Your management skills ... what good are they at that point?"
Andreessen's conclusion:
"You're much more likely to build something important in the 21st century if you start with the founder and train them on management."
'You can say Bitcoin has an underlying use case, namely store of value. But its store of value use depends on its perceived value. Meaning, if let's say there's a better store of value and people don't value Bitcoin as much'
name a better store of value than Bitcoin that has that properties: the most decentralized, lindy, etc.
If there is a better store of value, yes of course If there is, it is a hypothetical question right now.
it is like saying what if there is a better at something, than Y, then you will never build anything or is not based on reality, based on what could happen which has not happened.
I am not convinced at all with this line of argument : 'what if there is a better replacement than X?'
dont mean to take beef with you Dave, respect you as the fellow human being and your voice on Tesla, but not on this argument on Bitcoin.
Hard for me to get behind the scarcity argument for Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin is scarce (only 21 million will ever exist). But scarcity alone doesn't create value. Bitcoin's value comes from people believing it's worth something and paying for that belief. And that belief can change.
Compare it to stocks, yes stocks are also valued based on perceived value and perception of that value can change. But the main difference is the underlying business, revenue, profit, growth, etc. In other words, even if the market tanks at least I'll pay some multiple of earnings for a stock. One can argue there's an underlying business for Bitcoin as well and you can value it the same way, but I just don't see it. Hard to value Bitcoin as a multiple of earnings/growth.
Same goes for land. Land is valuable because of perceived value but that perceived value has an underlying use case. For example, sure land price can jump due to speculation and it can crash too. But in the end, a good piece of land still has value to build something on it (ie., a building on a busy city corner or a house overlooking the ocean).
You can say Bitcoin has an underlying use case, namely store of value. But its store of value use depends on its perceived value. Meaning, if let's say there's a better store of value and people don't value Bitcoin as much, then its price drops which inherently negatively impact its store of value proposition. In other words, what's Bitcoin's underlying business that I'm buying outside its store of value proposition. Even gold has an underlying some value outside of its store of value proposition. Gold is used in jewelry, electronics, etc. But still much of its use is still resting on its perceived value, ie., in jewelry. But it has thousands of years of history vs Bitcoin.
You could say Bitcoin's use is money transfer, meaning final settlement without intermediaries. But is that use case durable? I'm not convinced. It's already being disrupted, and not by banks. Stablecoins do the job better for most people, because people want to send dollars, not a volatile asset.
But I'm not betting against Bitcoin because it's possible the belief in Bitcoin doesn't die and it becomes a lasting global neutral reserve asset. I'm just not sold on it.
maybe @ethena one of the few that cant be freeze?
conviction matters
This story of how @RyanWatkins_ knew Hyperliquid coming to the US was underpriced, is a good reminder that there's infinite ways to find alpha
>Sees the Stars update come onto testnet
>Line it up with CFTC statements about perps
>Why would Jeff put this on public testnet??
>Compare previous testnet to mainnet upgrades
"Oh wow, I think this is something that's probably going to happen before year end, and no one is paying attention to it."
"And then we get the Trump announcement. Now it's on."
how many times did Bitcoin die? or wait i lost count lol
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started.
Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.
Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue.
We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months.
Why?
Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value.
Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?
What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?!
The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED!
Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets!
No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone.
No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS!
Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity.
This should be obvious to everyone right now.
Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.
As far as I love Tesla, and I do have one this chart is misleading , assuming using home charging cost which does not make sense to travel 2000 miles, only for 200 miles then you have to recharge using Tesla charger, which is at least 2x to 4/5x home charging cost.
At that rate, it could be par or even lower than the gas cars, especially if you charge happen to be on the 'congested' hours.
didn't expect world of stats doing 'misleading' chart like this?
my long tail is getting hot
my talk from token2049
we don’t need a new way to buy tesla stock
we need a way to buy great companies ignored by the index or trapped by geography
tokenize the long tail
youtu.be/88ql1fgslvM?si=wNTO…
Danny Iskandar retweeted
If you've ever wondered why smart TVs are so cheap, this is why.
@log4j rooted his Samsung and found an always-on hot mic, automatic content recognition, geolocation, network mapping, ad targeting and user profiling, shared with Samsung's "400 partners".
A lot of it can be blocked in <15 min, wrote a basic guide below.
What your TV is doing
The main culprit is ACR (automatic content recognition). Your TV screenshots what's on screen, fingerprints it, and sends it home to build your ad profile. Samsung does it every 500ms, LG every 10ms [1].
What is insane: it happens on connected devices too.
Plug in your laptop, your console, your work machine, and your TV can fingerprint that via HDMI [1].
He also found that if your Samsung doesn't have a mic, it'll look for one from a connected soundbar or bluetooth device.
nitter.cf/log4j/status/211376224…
It's on by default, and you likely agreed to it on the setup screen you clicked through in 10 seconds.
Step 1: Turn off ACR
Samsung: Terms & Privacy → Viewing Information Services
LG: Live Plus
Vizio: Viewing Data
Roku: "Use info from TV inputs"
Sony/Google TV: Samba Interactive TV
Menus vary by model, but those are the names to look for. While you're in there, opt out of interest-based ads, reset your advertising ID, decline every optional privacy agreement, turn off voice recognition, and delete apps you never open.
Step 2: Give smart devices their own network
Put the TV, cameras, speakers and vacuum on your router's guest/IoT network. The logic is simple: these devices rarely get patched. If one gets compromised (getting drastically more frequent with AI), it shouldn't be able to see your other devices or home network.
Step 3: Block trackers for the whole house with DNS-level filtering
NextDNS (cloud-based) is easy and has a solid free plan. Pi-hole is a little bit more work if you prefer self hosting. For simplicity we'll focus on the former.
1. Sign up at nextdns.io (free tier is plenty)
2. Privacy tab: add a blocklist (OISD is a good bet) and turn on Native Tracking Protection for Samsung, LG, Roku, Amazon (see attached image)
3. Setup tab: copy your endpoint
4. Paste it into your router's DNS settings as DNS-over-HTTPS/TLS (or use the IPs + "Link IP" if your router only does plain DNS)
5. Bonus: block outbound port 53 except to your router. Some devices hardcode their own DNS to get around you
Then open the NextDNS logs and watch how often your TV phones home. It's eye-opening. If an app or update breaks, find the domain in the logs and allowlist it.
Why they do this
TV prices are down 97% since 2000 [2]. Most of that is better manufacturing and brutal competition. But once margins on the hardware hit zero, the cost moved to you.
In Q3 2024, Vizio lost $6.7M selling TVs and made $115.8M in gross profit from ads and viewing data [3]. They've said on earnings calls that they keep TV prices low to grow the audience they sell to advertisers. Walmart bought them in 2024.
This isn't a conspiracy theory either. Vizio paid $2.2M to the FTC in 2017 for tracking 11 million TVs without consent. Last December, Texas sued Samsung, LG, Sony, Hisense and TCL over ACR. Samsung and LG have since agreed to stop collecting that data without explicit consent [4].
TL;DR
1. ACR off
2. Ads + voice off
3. Smart devices on their own network
4. NextDNS filtering on the router
Sources:
[1] ACR study: arxiv.org/abs/2409.06203
[2] Cost of US consumer goods: aei.org/economics/chart-of-t…
[3] Vizio Q3 2024: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
[4] Texas v. Samsung: texasattorneygeneral.gov/new…
woow, i'm impressed
This was done from start to finish in one very detailed prompt that included images and a lot of references to prior videos. She's getting smarter.
🎙️ Black October - made with ClaudiaMCP x Grok @bot
Danny Iskandar retweeted
There are millions of people around the world who want to invest, build wealth, and own a piece of the global economy.
Many of them are in places where we're only beginning to build.
We've received approval to establish Robinhood in the Middle East from the DIFC, bringing us closer to a world where ownership knows no borders. 🇦🇪
robinhood.com/newsroom/robin…
Revenue is good, also sustaining PMF and potential TAM as well
Revenue has been one of the strongest narratives this year.
People will buy tokens of projects that actually make money.
Top 15 projects by revenue in 2026:
@HyperliquidX - $HYPE - $526.7M
@pumpfun - $PUMP - $390.5M
@Collector_Crypt - $CARDS - $90.4M
@edgeX_exchange - $EDGE - $86.8M
@aeroxyz - $AERO - $66.8M
@aave - $AAVE - $62.0M
@papertrade_xyz - $PAPER - $58.4M
@Uniswap - $UNI - $57.7M
@JupiterExchange - $JUP - $55.8M
@chainlink - $LINK - $47.5M
@PancakeSwap - $CAKE - $43.1M
@MeteoraAG - $MET - $35.8M
@Lighter_xyz - $LIT - $34.6M
@ether_fi - $ETHFI - $33.4M
@ponsdotfamily - $PONS - $28.3M
This is one of the easiest crypto narratives to understand.
You don’t need to decode a whitepaper to see that people are paying to use a product.
The next thing I look at: how much of that revenue flows back to the token.
Here’s how the top 15 changed throughout the year ↓