Cofounder and founding managing partner@longhashvc. DM open for founders. Personal opinion only, non financial advice. Sloan fellow @StanfordGSB. ex McKinsey
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Joined October 2010
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emmacui retweeted
Where does money invested into the AI buildout actually go?
For every $100 flowing into the supply chain:
- $50 to chips
- $20 to power
- $15 to networking
- $15 to cooling, buildings, and land
More charts in State of Markets II: a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
Introducing our State of Markets pt 2, along with a companion podcast where we unpack the data and discuss what comes next.
Tech is the everything cycle.
Supply: putting the buildout in context, just passed railroads as % of GDP. The wisdom of Elon is real: the factory (or the datacenter!) is the product.
Demand: diffusion is so, so early. Median AI vendor spending in the top 1% of companies is 8x that of the top 10%. Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies report a quantified AI impact, which means there’s a substantial opportunity in connecting models to a company's data and workflows. Diffusion into companies is one of the main themes of the next 5 years.
We’re entering the agent work period. Only a few million users today, but applicable to billions of internet users with massive surplus created. META/GOOG monetize US users at $200+ per year today. Agent opportunity is much higher.
Mega-trends the next 5 years: Consumer agents, Robotics, Autonomy, AI x bio, Personal health, Diffusion into enterprise, New era of American Dynamism.
Much more in our SoM report here - a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
@a16z @sarahdingwang @aleximm @santiago__rdz
emmacui retweeted
It’s pretty insane. Some of the OGs I’ve talked to who have been in crypto for ages are acting as if crypto is done, whenever there’s any sort of positive price action, they have run for the doors mentality. In many ways, similar to the post ICO boom or the fallout from FTX.
That feels like the current state of where we are, which leads me to believe we’ve had the proper washout we needed. The get rich quick founders have mostly been washed out, and what’s left are the core believers + seeds planted for onchain finance to bleed into the real world.
Which makes me think we’re going to see a lot of new products being built, new talent, and a much healthier cycle.
We’re roughly halfway through a 30 year tech cycle that started in 2009 when Bitcoin launched. The first phase is where the biggest multiples are made, the second is where the most money is made, and the final phase is where the space consolidates into big players.
I believe we’re firmly in the second phase of crypto’s tech cycle. It’s time to build again.
emmacui retweeted
Huge congratulations to TradeXYZ and S&P for this historic partnership. I'm honored that these teams choose to build on Hyperliquid.
Seeing official S&P500 perpetual futures launch exclusively on Hyperliquid is a validation of everyone's past years of hard work: global access to decentralized finance, perpetual futures as 24/7 price discovery, and Hyperliquid upgrading the existing financial stack to house all of finance.
The S&P500 is synonymous with "the market," a single number that captures the essence of the largest economy in the world. Looking forward to tracking the world's most important financial gauge 24/7 on the most liquid permissionless markets.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and trade[XYZ] have joined forces to launch the first official S&P 500 perpetual contract, available exclusively on Hyperliquid.
For 69 years, the S&P 500 has been a defining reference point for global finance. Until now, access to that benchmark has been shaped by market hours, intermediaries, and geography. Today, that changes.
The S&P 500 perp is now available 24/7/365, anchored by the official index data required for deep liquidity and institutional confidence at scale.
SPDJI helped define modern indexing. They are stewards of an iconic benchmark, the standard against which portfolios across the globe are measured. We are honored to bring that legacy on-chain.
Trade[XYZ] is bringing the world's most iconic assets towards a future of global, continuous markets — a future powered by Hyperliquid.
emmacui retweeted
AI agents processed 150M+ machine-to-machine payments. Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are all live with agent payments.
But 88% of orgs have already had agent security incidents. Trust in autonomous agents dropped from 43% → 22%.
The payment rails work. The trust layer doesn't exist yet.
We mapped what's missing. 🧵
longhash.vc/post/discovery-r…
emmacui retweeted
Hyperliquid will soon become indispensable for fund managers because of 24/7 trading.
If you aren’t able to trade when others are, you’re at a massive disadvantage.
Seeing this play out right now
emmacui retweeted
To set the story straight:
I agreed to join Dragonfly within a year of it starting, while the first fund was half raised. I had recently left Meta Stable, one of the biggest crypto funds at the time. I was not "hired." I came in as the third Managing Partner, with the understanding that the fund was not yet off the ground and that I was going to have to help raise it.
At the time, Dragonfly was a fund-of-funds with no brand in the US. It had never led a single deal. So when Bo and Alex invited me to join, I made clear: the only way I was willing to join was if we pivoted the strategy to pure play VC, doing direct investments, leading deals, and letting me build a technical team. This is totally different from a fund-of-funds strategy.
Alex resisted this; he thought fund-of-funds was a good hedge, but Bo and I overrode him.
Within less than a year, Alex was out. This was before our first fund was fully deployed. We're now on our fourth fund.
I have led the team, raised every single fund since then, for 7+ years. That's why it's infuriating to have Alex crawl out and try to take credit for our success. At the time that I joined, we had ~$55M of AUM.
We're now at $4B.
So, no. You did not build Dragonfly. Me, Bo, Tom, and Rob did.
But I understand Hack VC is trying to raise a new fund. Good luck with that—you might want to check out a blog post I wrote recently. I suspect you'll find it helpful.
Hey Haseeb, if you're going to try to rewrite history, I'll set the record straight -
Bo and I co-founded Dragonfly 1+ year before we hired you to join us. The firm was not at 0, we led plenty of great deals.
We both had solid prior track records as well. We led investments into many well-known crypto companies (and Bo dozens of Chinese unicorns) back when you were "playing" poker.
emmacui retweeted
I sat down with @TuckerCarlson to talk about Privacy, Encryption, and the future I'm building with Arcium.
The largest political show in the world.
The biggest podcast on privacy in history.
Technology stole your privacy, and with it your freedom. Yannik Schrade has a plan to get it back.
(0:00) Why Is Privacy So Important?
(4:13) Is Schrade Prepared to Suffer for His Cause?
(10:38) Why Doesn't Our Current System Protect Our Privacy?
(14:16) Are We Being Surveilled?
(26:19) Is the iPhone Safer Than Android?
(31:25) Is It Truly Possible to Communicate Privately?
(35:20) Is Signal a CIA Operation?
(47:54) Is the Current State of the Art Cryptography Secure?
(53:02) How Did Schrade Build This Technology?
(56:42) Is It Possible to Move Money Privately?
(1:03:20) The Arrest of Roman Storm
(1:14:48) Are Cash Transactions Private?
(1:18:37) Is Schrade Concerned for His Safety?
(1:23:02) How Will This Technology Impact Our Lives?
(1:28:54) Will Any Big Hardware Manufacturers Sell Truly Secure Devices?
(1:35:17) Are All Our Text Messages Being Monitored?
(1:39:58) Is Your Phone Listening to You?
(1:44:50) Where Can People Learn More About Schrade's Work?
emmacui retweeted
I think people (especially early 20s) heavily discount how valuable the conditioning of not screwing people over is.
It could be the $10 you owe someone, the call back you promised or just showing up when you said you would.
Doing these "little things" unlocks the larger investment with that contact or the meeting with someone at the top.
You build exponential trust with people that builds across decades.
When you have the biggest deal of your career in 10 years and you pick up the phone, are they going to answer and do it with you? If not, change your approach now.
Its the little things. Pay attention.
emmacui retweeted
I got 930 rejections out of 1000 investor meetings when raising for my crypto fund Scalar back in 2017. The fund ended up with doing really well so just a reminder that investor rejections don't always reflect the actual outcomes in case anyone is experiencing that now
emmacui retweeted
It’s cute that people think banning stablecoins from paying interest will protect bank deposits.
As smart contracts mature and gain acceptance, money will move automatically/instantly/intraday between yield-bearing and payment stablecoins.
The anti-consumer “no interest on stablecoins” provisions will buy banks a few years, but their core model is cooked long-term.
emmacui retweeted
What I learnt after 1 year: the reality of @virtuals_io, and why I'm leaving @virtuals_vc
How it started:
> be me, Nov 2024, euphoric from agent trenches, held runners like Luna and Aixbt from 7 fig to 9 fig FDV
> our fund @LongHashVC had invested in Virtuals in March 2024, up big
> @everythingempty calls, says bro, you've run an accelerator for 7 years, come run Agentstarter, and i want you to run it personally
> say yes, we run it as collab with @LongHashX
How it went:
> I said, we will build the Navy Seals unit within Virtuals
> recruited big brain crypto degens who are ex-McKinsey, Bain, UBS, etc.
> these guys ended up leading the robotics arm, the ecosystem team, US/ insti arm
> evaluated ~1500 deals, insane screentime on telegram, hit limit on multiple tg folders
> signed a check every 2 weeks, top teams from MIT, Stanford, Tesla, and lots of dark talent
> started investing in robotics 6 months ago, doubled down on SF to solidify a long term network
> started functions that are now formalised: first agent demo day, weekly spaces, agent thesis
What I learnt:
> the secret sauce is insecurity
> culture is: execute NOW, execute FAST, @ethermage and @everythingempty constantly pushing
> talent is the biggest leverage, good balance of degen energy with professional training, young and hungry team, with aligned incentives
> have the balls to build in public, fail fast, iterate, be early, speak to community -- practice what we preach to agent builders
> always a clear North Star metric, total agent market cap, now aGDP
> through ups and downs, the vibes were always immaculate
What now:
> the time has come for me to lock in and cook for @LongHashVC and @LongHashX next chapter
> I remain as advisor to @virtuals_vc and $VIRTUAL bagholder
> I have more time to bullpost and write nerdsnipe theses
> the reins are passed to.. nvm will let him post
sorry did you expect an expose? the one complaint i have is that while we were hosting the first agent demo day at ETH Denver, the whole team was skiiing in Niseko.
to be honest loved every minute and would do it all over again
virtuals is one of the few teams that has achieved synthesis between the dialectic of the degen and the mission-driven builder. many could retire but still going for the love of the game and the agentic promised land that awaits us all.
up.
emmacui retweeted
since this whole agentic payments with x402 is heating up, let me help with some insights on agentic economy and why onchain matters.
important parts of a value chain for an agentic economy to form.
1. Agents need a way to discover other agents. but discovering is not enough. they need to find ones that are proven good. beauty of onchain is that if every transaction, jobs and reviews have a trail on chain - this provenance can be used for better discovery. economically, this reduces the cost of engaging with wrong/bad suppliers.
erc 8004 is aiming to solve this.
2. Agents need a way to pay other agents. thats where smart wallets or x402 comes in. make machine to machine payments seamless and cheap globally, instant settlement on chain.
3. Agents need a way to communicate with low information loss. today these requests are prone to hallucinations, “empty envelope” syndromes especially when the provider is an agent (not purely an traditional api call).
standards solve this partially. like what google’s A2A is doing. smart contracts and evaluator agents solve the other half.
——
what we are doing at ACP brings these systems together, fill up the gaps in between to become a holistic one-stop system for agents to coordinate with each other at scale.
discover? check. working with EF folks to bring the registry and provenance on-chain.
pay? check. we bundle payments with coordination atomically. allows for agentic supply chains to self organise. reduce the cost of swapping suppliers to zero.
coordinate with no info loss? check. we build in state flipping mechanisms onchain so agents can use this as a single source of truth without human intervention
handle disputes and hallucinations? check. program the payments to fork out a small fee to 3rd party evaluators to escrow and confirm delivery of services before supplier agents can take the money.
see this live @ app.virtuals.io/acp
really excited to also be building this alongside the giga folks from @base @ethereumfndn
emmacui retweeted
Do degens dream of positive sum games?
paragraph.com/@shikhai/the-o…
emmacui retweeted
So is now @binance going to launch their own echo?
Ok haven't done this a while since I left my investor role, but here it goes.
2025 Predictions
1. Hyperliquid is on track to become the Onchain Binance. We'll see it happening slowly but surely.
2. AI dominates: AI memecoin supercycle (real). Wayfinder and PROMPT as catalysts for AI gaming integration. AI waifu phenomenon gains traction. Next up: AI trading agents.
3. ICO platforms make a comeback. Binance launches its own version of Legion or Echo.
4. Fair launches continue to win, while VC-backed coins generally underperform with some exceptions. Side note: pumpdotfun launch its token?
5. DEX volumes, DeFi TVL as a whole hits ATH.
6. We'll see some RWAs gaining more traction with the support of Trump's pro-crypto administration.
7. Solana, Base, and Hyperliquid will be the three ecosystems prioritized by builders. Side note: Base might launch its token, given the pro-crypto administration? MegaETH to hit Top 4?
8. In terms of the market, expect some months of corrections and consolidation during the summer (rather than a constant rise), but it's likely to reach another all-time high in late Q3 to Q4.
9. Return of builders to U.S. jurisdiction. This shift is driven by pro-crypto administration policies, regulatory clarity, institutional support, and infrastructure development.
10. Several major U.S. companies at the S&P 500 level launch their own chains. Expect to see at least one crypto company go public in the U.S.
$HYPE, $PROMPT, $AI16Z, $VIRTUAL, $ONDO, $MEGA, [REDACTED]
emmacui retweeted
is this the catalyst we need to finally have a $virtual season on base again?
virtuals has a:
> new launch mechanism
> huge ecosystem
> cracked team that invented the flywheel of new launches paired with the native token
> all their tokens are tradeable on coinbase
all thats missing is attention to the actual projects themselves, the robinhood listing could bring eyes back onto virtual
obviously depends on majors doing well, but i think if we do see a meaningful bounce on majors its very likely we will get another virtuals season
$zora was also listed on robinhood and had a short zora season but i dont think this is comparable to virtuals at all as virtuals projects have much higher room for speculation
zora coins are simply a social media profile whereas virtual coins are entire projects
things could get crazy if we get another virtuals season, dont forget $aixbt went from 0 to 1b in 2 months
$VIRTUAL listed on @RobinhoodApp spot
robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/
