Social researcher. No, I don't know what that means either. Work for @IpsosUK, but views expressed here are my own.
London
Joined January 2010
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I am done with Twitter for the medium term. It is, generally speaking, a cesspool of bots and hate. I'm deleting it from my phone so am unlikely to tweet from this account for the foreseeable future.
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
🧵1/ Thread on the #Southport anti-migrant and anti-Muslim disinformation and propaganda. In this thread I highlight key spreaders of disinformation, the chronology, and some points about some of the inauthentic activity evident. I will focus on X.
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
We are happy to release the first results of a RCT of a US program that provided $1,000/month unconditionally for 3 years to 1,000 individuals in the treatment group, with a group of 2,000 people receiving $50/month serving as the control.
These are sizable transfers. 1/ 🧵
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
If they’re lucky they might bag a quick selfie. We are paying for Truss security to wander aimlessly around this clown show. And Farage has a constituency to ‘fix’. Absolute trash, both of them.
Is there already a rule that states that if anyone says, "the answer is obvious," it most definitely is not?
A large proportion of the comments to this article are a variant of, "answer is obvious. It's shy Tories". The entire article is about it *not* being shy Tories, according to the evidence (Cons vote share was relatively well predicted within margin of error across pollsters).
You can read @vin_viz excellent analysis of how and why the polls and the results differed here: ft.com/content/ed2513a0-435d…
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
Two big undercurrents underneath the historic Labour landslide:
Marginals in Scotland flipping from SNP to Labour
Reform eating into Conservative vote in England
A remarkably efficient election win for the Labour Party which points towards a v smart & organised campaign
Owen Jones's feed is an absolute hoot. All variations of:
Sure Labour may have won, but winning an election is not what counts
Only rich people in London voted for Labour
Why the Greens have already won the *next* election, proving the failure of Keir Starmer tonight
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
Senior Tory Jacob Rees Mogg has been defeated by Labour in his North East Somerset seat.
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
Lomas comments on black people. Farage told #bbcqt he had been suspended. He was suspended the next morning. Reform then said they would like voters to vote for the suspended candidates as a national vote for the party!
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
🚨Breaking: Rishi Sunak has handed a knighthood to Tory minister Alister Jack who admitted placing three bets on the election date, just an hour before polls closed in the General Election
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/b…
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
Both Barnsley seats going Reform? Again I'd expect them to do well there but.....
One of those candidates was suspended for racism during the campaign. Ugh.
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
If Reform have won two Barnsley seats, one of their candidates (Robert Lomas in Barnsley North) is suspended for racism after Farage said he wanted "nothing to do with him" on BBC Question Time
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
IPSOS #GE2024 EXIT POLL
🔴LAB 410
🔵CON 131
🟠LIB DEM 61
🟡SNP 10
🟦REFORM 13
🟢GREEN 2
🟩PLAID 4
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
Everything that could possibly said about @RishiSunak’s character, judgement and integrity is encapsulated perfectly by his final act in office: giving a lifetime honour to Chris Grayling, the most destructive and incompetent minister in recent history.
Never mind that #ExitPoll, I'm hearing positive things from Susan Hall's camp. Everyone here saying she has definitely won it
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
🗳️Update: @IpsosUK's final prediction poll had 70% saying they are certain to vote today 👇
Continues the pattern of being c.10 points down compared to recent elections...
... but figures look remarkably similiar to GE2005 campaign when eventual turnout was 61%.
🧵What happens to turnout when...?
📈Labour has a 20pt lead
🤨Record political disaffection
🤷♂️Little enthusiasm for leaders
Turnout is v tricky to predict but...
@IpsosUK shows certainty to vote is down c.10pts with similar points in recent elections + comparable to 2005/2010
Jayesh Navin Shah retweeted
🚨FINAL Ipsos voting intention #GE2024 Poll: Labour holds 18 pt lead over the Conservatives
🔴Labour 37%
🔵Conservatives 19%
🟦Reform 15%
🟠Liberal Democrats 11%
🟢Greens 9%
⚫Other 10%
Read more: bit.ly/3VTcAmM
ALT General Election 2024 Ipsos Final Poll Labour 37% Conservatives 19% Reform 15% Liberal Democrats 11% Greens 9% Other 10% Undecided 5% Refusals 11%