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JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
Today's In Person Early Vote Outlook:
Today's In Person Early Vote (Oct 30th only) is currently running at R+12.07 as of 11am. With the way things are trending, it's likely to increase slightly for the 3pm drop.
Democrats are expected to eat into the margin again later on this evening as we head into the 7pm drop. My rough estimate is that it runs at R+13.5 at 3pm and comes back down to around R+10.5 by 7pm.
Again, just some rough estimates. Yesterday, Democrats overperformed at the 7pm drop, wiping away more than 4 points. We should have a better picture of where things stand at 3pm. jaysonfrascatore.github.io/F…
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
Via @steveschale
Below is total turnout percentage by party through Wednesday of the last full week, 2022 to 2026
Democrats: 28.7% —> 38.6%
NPA: 16.0% —> 22.1%
Republicans: 32.6% —> 28.6%
And this isn’t a function of a typical Dem problem – our Election Day voters voting earlier than usual, thus “cannibalizing” the Democratic electorate and making the early voting numbers look better. If anything, it’s the GOP this cycle that is cannibalizing its Election Day vote. Roughly 60K more 2022 Election Day Republicans have voted than Election Day Democrats.
Concorde has very few past polls but a good track record:
2023 KY Gov (overstimated Dems by 3)
2024 MD Sen (overestimated Dems by 2)
2025 NJ Gov (underestimated Dems by 5)
Concord Public Opinion Partners poll | 10/22-10/26 LV
US Senate South Dakota 2026
⬜️Brian Bengs 43%
🟥Mike Rounds 41% (incumbent)
Link to poll: concordpublicopinionpartners…
Ruffini is right. 4 of the most reliable states for polling even in Trump elections were VA, GA, AZ and NC.
AZ, GA, VA and NC all show a 10+ point swing from 2024.
There is absolutely no more reason to doubt a blue wave is coming, the question is just how big.
Everything we're seeing this so far this fall is consistent with this, and why Sun Belt polling is more reliable than Rust Belt polling. nitter.cf/PatrickRuffini/status/…
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
Republicans had a slightly stronger day in Florida yesterday relative to 2024. For David Jolly to win, he needed both strong Democratic turnout and favorable persuasion trends. The early voting data suggests the turnout side of things is on track to happen.
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
Hourly trends so far today
Early vote before 830: DEM +3% 🔵
Will rapidly get redder after this #flapol
I tracked the early vote totals every two hours today.
Similar patter all week. Mid-day vote is blood red. Then closing two hours skews Democratic.
Total early vote was GOP +10%, similar to previous days #flapol
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
It’s good for pollsters to release outliers, but that response disparity compared to the other states is crazy
For what it's worth WaPo is not confident in this poll because of the massive difference in response rates between Dems and GOP
WaPo/Schar poll | 10/22-10/26 LV
US Senate Kansas 2026
🟦Adam Hamilton 52%
🟥Roger Marshall 43% (incumbent)
🟨David Graham 4%
Link to poll: washingtonpost.com/tablet/20…
Below is the same pollster as Angie Nixon's recent internal. They were off by just 1% for TN-07 special election.
They also worked with Mamdani and Adam Hamawy before.
They underestimated both Mamdani and Hamawy in their elections.
Workbench Strategy poll | 10/15-10/19 LV
Tennessee’s 7th congressional district special election (Trump +22)
🟥Matt Van Epps 51%
🟦Aftyn Behn 41%
Others 7%
(Behn internal)
s3.documentcloud.org/documen…
Angie Nixon internal:
Moody +2
Jolly +2
🚨New internal poll released from @AngieNixon’s campaign:
🔴 Ashley Moody - 49
🔵 Angie Nixon - 47
🔵 David Jolly - 48
🔴 Byron Donalds - 46
via @politicofl
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
🚨New internal poll released from @AngieNixon’s campaign:
🔴 Ashley Moody - 49
🔵 Angie Nixon - 47
🔵 David Jolly - 48
🔴 Byron Donalds - 46
via @politicofl
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
Polk county is very interesting at the moment. Early in person turnout of registered voters by race (through day 10):
Black voters: 17%
White voters: 12.3%
Hispanic voters: 9.8%
Black voters are turning out at a higher rate than Whites and Hispanics and currently make up a larger share of the IPEV electorate than they did by the end of in person voting in 2024.
Democrats are also doing a better job of turning out low propensity voters here than Rs. IPEV turnout by participation in 3 last general elections (2020/22/24):
3 of 3 voters: 🔵22.8% | 🔴17.3%
2 of 3 voters: 🔵13.8% | 🔴7.3%
1 of 3 voters: 🔵12.5% | 🔴7.1%
0 of 3 voters: 🔵9.4% | 🔴6.3%
I like how senator Gallego is also doing early vote analysis like ET.
For the record Republicans seem to be concerned about the EV in Arizona there too and likely need a "Herculean election day" to win
Source: azmirror.com/2026/10/29/on-p…
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
5 days out from election day and Democrats still somehow lead the in person early vote in FL-18, which Trump won by 17 points in 2024
JD Politics 🇵🇸 🇿🇦 🇨🇺 retweeted
With voting virtually wrapped up today, Democrats hold a 9.4% turnout lead - which has kept the GOP to a 1.8% vote cast lead (despite having a 11% registration advantage)
Republicans are WAY BEHIND where they were at this time in 2024 #flapol
FL will update Election day votes the same as EV so we'll be able to see what the electorate is looking like and it will probably follow the same time patterns as IPEV like below. That's one of the reason why I'm following this race so closely it will set the tone for eday early
I tracked the early vote totals every two hours today.
Similar patter all week. Mid-day vote is blood red. Then closing two hours skews Democratic.
Total early vote was GOP +10%, similar to previous days #flapol
Rs had a better day, winning IPEV by 10.5%, mail has also been getting more R and was D+6.7 today meaning GOP netted 25k votes. It ends with R+1.8 or 76k vote lead.
EV still tracking for R+2-3, nothing has fundamentally changed. Whether Republicans show up on eday will decide it
