@jfmccarty
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Husband, father, brother, son, friend, Rough Rider, CFO, banker, MTB, surfer, skier, mountaineer, sailor, Pirate, Wildcat, merry prankster and you?
Wahmeda
Joined January 2009
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Bull markets, according to John Templeton, “are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria”. The legendary Wall Street fund manager put this philosophy into practice in 1939.
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
Real yields are driving long-end rates higher, not inflation fears; there it is, right in the Fed minutes. Thank you
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
“If you pay people not to work and tax them when they do, don’t be surprised if you get unemployment.”
— Milton Friedman
American buffalo rome again thanks to privatization. Ranchers led by Ted Turner revived a bison population government had done little to save, writes Tate Watkins
wsj.com/opinion/american-buf…
Learn to live bravely
Mountaineer and filmmaker Jimmy Chin’s new book “Rules to Live By” has lessons about risk-taking. wsj.com/arts-culture/books/j… via @WSJ
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
Three men's games to look forward to today with plenty on the line! 🥍
Every game counts on the road to #LA28, and you can watch it all live on WL TV ▶️ tv.worldlacrosse.sport
#PASLC26 #Lacrosse
Follow the money
Despite the prophecies that the war in Iran would plunge the U.S. into a recession, the evidence is that America’s economic animal spirits are alive and well. wsj.com/opinion/u-s-economy-… via @WSJopinion
A data center can lower your electricity bill. a16z's Alex Immerman, David George, and Sarah Wang on the myth that gets the least pushback and deserves the most:
"It may seem counterintuitive, but a data center can help lower your electricity rate. A recent US study showed that for every 10% increase in data center capacity, residential rates went down by 40 bps."
"You should think about it as a power grid is a shared fixed cost base: poles, wires, substations. A large stable customer, like a data center, can help spread those costs across more units of electricity. Simply put, more demand across a shared system is a positive."
"Investment in shared infrastructure can also improve the economics for the households and businesses connected to it."
"I don't think that point gets enough media attention. Dina Powell went on a podcast recently from Meta and talked about the Louisiana site that they did, where they worked with the community to lower electricity costs. There's real examples of that today. It's not just lip service."
@aleximm @DavidGeorge83 @sarahdingwang
a16z's David George, Sarah Wang, Alex Immerman, and Santiago Rodriguez on the State of Markets, from AI and infrastructure to the next investment cycles:
1. Tech is the everything cycle.
High-tech equipment, software, and R&D are now about 55% of US capital spending, and the AI buildout just passed the railroads as a share of GDP. The five largest hyperscalers will spend about $780B on capex this year, heading past $1T in 2027, and demand still outstrips supply at every point in the chain.
2. It's an earnings story.
Stocks are up about 20% while multiples are down about 20%, and the S&P trades under 20x earnings. The market is up 90% since ChatGPT, on 15% earnings growth.
3. AI adoption is broad and shallow.
69% of the S&P 500 has a live AI deployment, 30% report a quantified result, and just 2% have AI doing a job they'd notice if it stopped. The power users are pulling away: the top 1% of AI spenders spend eight times the top 10%.
4. The private markets are enormous.
Six private companies, Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe, Waymo, and Revolut, add up to about $2.4T by last round, more than every IPO of the past decade combined. "The founder is the asset class. The IPO is another financing event."
Plus: why a data center can lower your electricity bill, what Amazon saying no to Muse and Instacart saying yes tells you about marketplaces, and the seven areas the team is most excited about next.
0:59 Charts from State of Markets II
2:59 Tech is the everything cycle
4:56 Is it a bubble?
6:31 Hyperscaler CapEx: $1T next year
12:12 CapEx is someone else's order book
14:36 Data centers can lower your bills
17:06 OpenAI and Anthropic vs. some of the best software companies ever
18:22 Enterprise AI: 69% adopted, 2% measured
20:32 The top 1% spend 8x the top 10% on AI
24:36 Spending on AI for growth or for savings?
28:46 Only 2% of households pay for AI
31:36 Amazon blocks Muse, Instacart welcomes
36:16 Software traded growth for profit
42:56 6 startups vs. a decade of IPOs
45:46 Why employees are turning down liquidity
48:44 Seven areas they're excited about
YouTube: youtu.be/lr3hNhA0IfQ
@DavidGeorge83 @aleximm @santiago__rdz @sarahdingwang
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
The puck drops tonight on the 2026-27 NHL season, which will feature an expanded 84-game schedule with two additional games per team against divisional opponents. The last four Stanley Cup champions will all feature on ESPN’s tripleheader (5 total games tonight)..
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
When people have greater incentives to produce, innovate, and start businesses, the economy has more room to grow.
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
“It is very difficult to cut government down. It is relatively easy to pass laws, and it’s almost impossible to repeal them. How many laws can you think of that have been repealed?”
— Milton Friedman
Enough of the doom'n'gloom narrative - the future is bright!
The usual economic brakes aren’t slowing growth, hiring or an AI investment boom that looks to be unstoppable wsj.com/finance/investing/us… via @WSJ
Bear Down
I love visiting students who are growing up in a world where America is returning to the Moon, building a Moon Base, preparing to get underway under nuclear power, and launching missions to unlock the secrets of the universe. The students at the University of Arizona are already playing a part, just as this institution has since the earliest days of America’s space program.
From incredibly badass missions like OSIRIS-REx, to NIRCam on Webb and HiRISE at Mars, to their work on LEMS that NASA astronauts will deploy on the lunar surface, and now Pandora studying exoplanet atmospheres, this university has its fingerprints all over the great frontier.
Just so exciting to be around and witness.
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
The surface of Mars captured by Perseverance Rover.
📸: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
59%UP
41%DOWN
1,549 votes • Final results JFMcCarty3 retweeted
Good Saturday Morning Chart Fans!
Link to Saturday Chart Fest.
helenemeisler.substack.com/p…
JFMcCarty3 retweeted
Activist: "Farmers pump their cows full of antibiotics. It's in every glass of milk."
Dairy farmer: "Do you know what happens if it is?"
Activist: "People drink it."
Dairy farmer: "The tanker gets tested at the gate. One cow's worth of antibiotic in 20,000 litres and the whole load goes down the drain. Every farm on the run that morning gets their milk tipped, and the farm that did it pays for all of it."
Activist: "So you're saying it never happens."
Dairy farmer: "I'm saying a treated cow on this farm gets red tape round her leg, goes to the back of the parlour, and her milk goes in a bucket for 6 days. I treat her like she's radioactive, because financially she is."
Activist: "You still use them."
Dairy farmer: "On a cow that's ill. Same as you. The vet writes it up, the date goes on the wall, and the wall's checked. Use on this farm is about half what it was 10 years ago, and that's every dairy I know."
Activist: "Routine use in feed, then."
Dairy farmer: "Illegal for years. Growth promoters went 20 years ago. You're describing a chicken shed in a country I don't farm in."
Activist: "You can't prove it's not in the milk."
Dairy farmer: "I can prove it 3 times a week, because they test it 3 times a week and send me the sheet. When did you last get a sheet on your oat drink?"
Activist: "That's different."
Dairy farmer: "It is. Nobody tests it. Mine's the most inspected liquid in your kitchen and it's the one you're scared of."
