Progressive empiricist. ex-@Catalist_US. R's Husband + J&D's Dad. @benj_robinson's twin. Pro-growth in the front, Donor advisor in the back. OH & MD guy.
Rockville, MD
Joined June 2012
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Gotta figure out a way to add "lesser well-known data analyst (who I've occasionally corresponded with and usually learn from, though not this time)" to my bio
Over on LinkedIn(!!!), Courtney Kennedy (now @ Ipsos) reports that an incentivized mail survey they conducted w/ a 9% response rate (!!!) that shows D+6 vs D+10 in their poll with Reuters on the Generic Ballot.
lnkd.in/p/ezfqFQCq
Reuters/Ipsos poll | 10/22-10/26
(Likely voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 53%
🟥Republican 44%
------
(Registred voters)
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 64%
✅Approve 35%
Link to poll: ipsos.com/en-us/democrats-ho…
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
It's the same story in our polls. Farm Belt Dems *really* want to answer. They're acting like El-Sayed and Hong Dems before the primaries.
We correct for this by targeting hard-to-reach groups, but if any of these hyper-engaged Ds are camping out in R groups, that means a miss
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
The climate case for the permitting reform bill is simple: Making all energy infrastructure easier to build will enable renewables to flourish — and erode fossil fuels' market share.
And we have good reason to believe that's true — it's called Texas.
vox.com/politics/508196/perm…
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
Just days before the midterms, AI's political class is consumed with one question: is AI a big issue this election?
@ShakeelHashim digs into the data – and finds the answer is somewhere between the safety groups' hype and the industry dismissals
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
"blue state polls are basically right, red states polls are...i dunno" seems like a useful heuristic
Though worth a note that this was less of an issue in ME + MI (though as @sfcpoll notes, MI doesn't really have party affiliation)
It's hard to see this data & not update your priors a bit away from the fact that the polls might be biased in Democrats' favor (and this is just the cooperation rate conditional on answering the survey, not the act of entering the survey experience in general)
"After more than 85,000 phone calls and nearly 50,000 text messages, a potential problem emerged." Great story by @sfcpoll on what happened when @washingtonpost tried to poll the Kansas Senate race washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Though worth a note that this was less of an issue in ME + MI (though as @sfcpoll notes, MI doesn't really have party affiliation)
Though worth a note that this was less of an issue in ME + MI (though as @sfcpoll notes, MI doesn't really have party affiliation)
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
Yes! And that's a core thesis of our new mini-book in the Cambridge Elements series. Dominating attention doesn't guarantee positive coverage or popularity. Even for Donald Trump. (The book is available online for free!) jonathanmladd.com/american-p…
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
We should get money out of politics. And while others spend outrageous amounts to keep authoritarian clowns in power, those of us who believe in the ideals of America cannot yield.
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
We scanned 50,000+ emails over the last 30 days.
There’s a 45-point gap in inbox rate between the two parties.
Whatever you think of the marketing tactics, that gap is INSANE and hard to ignore. 📊@InboxGOP
From @ezraklein's latest conversation w/ @NateSilver538
"Attention-niks" need to grapple with the fact that the candidates who seem poised to overperform the partisan fundamentals the most in the upcoming November elections are not flashy nationwide social media stars
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
Most Americans contribute their fair share. They aren't frustrated by the fact that they have to pay taxes, they just think that other people are gaming the system.
That's why @AshleySchapitl thinks that Democrats need to re-fund the tax police.
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
Join me, Members of Council, & City Planning staff to sign a transformative revision to the way we build in Pittsburgh.
Mayor O'Connor Signs Two New Zoning Reform Packages That Modernize Zoning, Encourage Growth and New Housing nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1mxPaZvVj…
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
Matt makes a good argument for ending IZ here in DC here. Only thing I'd add: It has driven up market rents while also adding a pathetically small number of affordable units — somewhere under 5,000 in 17 years.
capitalcommonsense.com/p/end…
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
🚨Permitting reform alert🚨
YIMBYs have been sleeping on BAAJA's housing reforms that pick up where ROAD left off!
For decades, federal housing dollars have come with unworkable fine print
Fixing that is great for moderate YIMBYs, but it's existential to the Left-YIMBY agenda
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
NEW: Mayor Bass announces an executive directive to help restaurants by easing permitting and outdoor dining. It's Bass' 24th exec directive since taking office, 1/3 of which were issued after Nithya Raman announced her race to be mayor.
Link to today's ED: mayor.lacity.gov/sites/g/fil…
Jonathan Robinson retweeted
Incredible. Endless stories about young people feeling disillusioned, dooming about not being able to even buy a house etc, and yet there is no politician of any party (afaik) that will actually do anything to reduce the boomers’ slice of the pie.
.@AbdulElSayed thinks property tax for seniors should be frozen
I think its generational warfare and that they should sell their houses if they can't afford them. He concedes I'm 'theoretically correct' but practically wrong
Our exchange