Jeff Praught

Once again, I anticipate further westward and northward adjustments to Tropical Storm Rachel’s forecast track as model guidance continues to show increasing agreement on a trajectory closer to Southern California. In my professional assessment, the current NHC forecast cone may still be positioned too far east, and additional adjustments could bring Rachel closer to San Diego and the surrounding coastline. Likely still in Baja California but really close to San Diego. The interaction with the approaching upper level disturbance will play a major role in determining the final track, and even minor changes could increase impacts across Southern California. Another important concern is Rachel’s intensity. Given the ongoing strengthening and favorable environmental conditions, Rachel could approach or potentially reach Category 1 hurricane intensity, with sustained winds near or above 74 mph. Even if Rachel remains a strong tropical storm, significant impacts should still be expected.