Joined November 2016
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Team Futurism interview on Artificial Intelligence , Anthropic and the potential extermination of the human race #AI #Anthropic #NickBostrom #SuperIntelligence #Coxon #AI
youtube.com/watch?v=E9f3Jn97…
mangled world retweeted
レイ・カーツワイル（世界的未来学者）「2032年、人間は死ななくなる。脳をネットに直結して合体する時代が来る」
寿命が無限に伸びる「不老不死」へ秒読み――体の中に極小ロボットを泳がせ、脳みそを丸ごとクラウド接続！
「ちゃんと健康に気をつけている人は、あと数年で『年を取るスピードより寿命が延びるスピードの方が速い状態』に入って死ななくなります。さらに脳とAIを無線で繋げば、考えた瞬間に答えが頭に浮かぶ超人になります」
天才予言者が明かした「死の克服と脳のAI合体」をわかりやすく👇
・2032年には「実質的に死なない身体」へ突入：医療技術の進化スピードが爆発し「1年生きると寿命が1年以上延びる状態（寿命脱出速度）」へ到達。病気や老化を治すスピードが老化を追い抜くため、健康に気をつけていれば寿命が尽きなくなる計算。
・血管の中を「超極小のお医者さんロボ」が泳ぎ回る：2030年代〜2040年代には目に見えない微小サイズのロボット（ナノボット）が体の中をパトロール。血管の中を泳ぎながら、がん細胞やウイルスを見つけ次第その場で精密にやっつける仕組み。
・スマホを使わず「脳みそをネットに直結」：頭を切り開く手術をすることなくロボットが脳へ入り込み、人間の脳とネット上の超巨大AIをまるでWi-Fiのように無線で接続。
・ググらなくても「最初から知っていた」状態になる：調べ物をしなくても、答えがまるで最初から自分の記憶や知識だったかのように頭の中にパッと浮かぶ究極の超人へ進化。
要は、世界的未来学者のレイ・カーツワイルが「健康に気をつけて2032年まで生き残れば寿命の壁を突破して死ななくなり、血管を泳ぐ極小ロボットと脳直結のAIによって人間は生物の限界を完全に超えた存在へ進化する」と予言したという事です。
mangled world retweeted
In the coming years, @Neuralink will enable people to walk and use their hands again
Neuralink gave Noland Arbaugh something to wake up for.
“I didn’t have anything to wake up for in the morning, and this has changed that for me.”
@elonmusk says he’s fairly confident Neuralink could restore full-body functionality at some point in the future—not a capability achieved today.
mangled world retweeted
I assumed everyone was overreacting a bit to this post when they described their very visceral reactions.
I just read it. I feel a bit sick.
mangled world retweeted
i believe we’re approaching a period where scientific breakthroughs that once took decades could start happening in weeks, days, or even hours. and we’re still incredibly so early rn.
what an incredible time to be alive.
mangled world retweeted
「2035年頃には、人体全体をコンピューター上でシミュレーションできるようになる」とカーツワイル氏は予測している。おなじみの予測、2032年頃の「寿命脱出速度」到達の後の話だ。それによって、創薬から試験までの全プロセスが、わずか数日で完了するようになるという。
レイ・カーツワイル「計算能力が向上するにつれて、私たちは分子だけでなく、生物学的な仕組みのさまざまな側面をシミュレーションできるようになります。細胞小器官、細胞、組織、臓器、そして最終的には人体全体です。
2030年代半ばには、新薬の試験をデジタル上で行うようになるでしょう。これは非常に重要です。現在でも多くのことを迅速に行えますが、人間を対象に薬を試験するには、どうしても一定の時間がかかります。私たちはその制約を克服することになります。
実現までには少し時間がかかるでしょう。私の予測では2035年までに可能になります。実際、さまざまな人と話しましたが、2030年代後半になると考える人もいれば、2030年代前半だと考える人もいます。私は2035年頃だと考えています。しかし、これは医学の進歩の速度を根本的に変えることになります。
現在でも、人間を対象とする試験を伴わない研究であれば、かつて何年もかかっていたことを数日で実行できます。そして今度は、あらゆる病気について、試験する薬を見つけ、コンピューター上で生物学的な仕組みをシミュレーションして、その薬を数日以内に試験できるようになります。つまり、創薬から試験までの全プロセスが、わずか数日で完了するようになるのです」
mangled world retweeted
simulated biology is when things get really weird
「2035年頃には、人体全体をコンピューター上でシミュレーションできるようになる」とカーツワイル氏は予測している。おなじみの予測、2032年頃の「寿命脱出速度」到達の後の話だ。それによって、創薬から試験までの全プロセスが、わずか数日で完了するようになるという。
レイ・カーツワイル「計算能力が向上するにつれて、私たちは分子だけでなく、生物学的な仕組みのさまざまな側面をシミュレーションできるようになります。細胞小器官、細胞、組織、臓器、そして最終的には人体全体です。
2030年代半ばには、新薬の試験をデジタル上で行うようになるでしょう。これは非常に重要です。現在でも多くのことを迅速に行えますが、人間を対象に薬を試験するには、どうしても一定の時間がかかります。私たちはその制約を克服することになります。
実現までには少し時間がかかるでしょう。私の予測では2035年までに可能になります。実際、さまざまな人と話しましたが、2030年代後半になると考える人もいれば、2030年代前半だと考える人もいます。私は2035年頃だと考えています。しかし、これは医学の進歩の速度を根本的に変えることになります。
現在でも、人間を対象とする試験を伴わない研究であれば、かつて何年もかかっていたことを数日で実行できます。そして今度は、あらゆる病気について、試験する薬を見つけ、コンピューター上で生物学的な仕組みをシミュレーションして、その薬を数日以内に試験できるようになります。つまり、創薬から試験までの全プロセスが、わずか数日で完了するようになるのです」
mangled world retweeted
We are now firmly at the knee of an exponential curve. Soon the rate of scientific discovery will far outpace society’s ability to digest even a fraction of it. Time to buckle up.
Today Physical Superintelligence PBC is announcing a proof of the Aaronson-Ambainis conjecture, one of the central open problems in quantum complexity, with major implications for quantum computing speedup.
psi.inc/research/aaronson-am…
Thread 👇
mangled world retweeted
There's an increasingly strong chance that we all die in the next few years if the government doesn't act.
I would still guess that it's not too late. I am less and less confident that this will still be true six months from now.
This report on AI R&D automation (RSI) is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years. It says AI progress is sped up by RSI right now by around 2x. In AI 2027, this happens around March 2027.
I was seriously wrong about RSI speed up; I previously expected much less in 2026 (around 1.15x-1.3x). It seems as though there was specific privately available evidence that would have changed my mind.
I haven't seen an unredacted version of this report; this is purely about the public report. Because so much of the underlying evidence was redacted from the public report, I think conclusions about things other than the observed 2x faster rate of progress on benchmarks depend significantly on trust for the authors of the report. (E.g., conclusions about whether this speed up is from RSI depend on trust.) I do trust the authors of the report a lot to be careful and rigorous and generally do a good job. (Note that I also work at METR.) Less extensive redactions would greatly reduce this need for trust.
Since in my current role I may have access to other confidential information that could be relevant to timelines one way or another, I unfortunately cannot state my all-things-considered views on ASI timelines or the probability of a software intelligence explosion right now. Here, I’ve done some analysis of the implications using my previous public statements.
A 2x acceleration in overall AI progress from RSI corresponds to a much larger than 2x RSI speed up for AI software R&D (algorithms and data); I did an estimate using my public preexisting modeling of drivers of AI progress and the public report which yielded a very rough estimate of 4.5x for how much RSI is currently accelerating AI software progress (relative to no AI automation). In the AI 2027 scenario, this much acceleration happens around March 2027.
Here are the worked details of this estimate based on my public modeling. There are two main reasons RSI speed up of AI software R&D must be larger:
- Not all of AI progress is from better software (some is from scaling up compute in training runs). I've previously speculated that around 2/3 of AI progress is from software improvements which implies that 2x overall AI progress acceleration requires 3x faster software progress.
- Diminishing returns: A fixed amount of progress requires more work over time, so to ongoingly maintain 3x faster software progress via AI automation, you need increasingly large speed boosts from AI automation (as in, speed ups relative to how fast software R&D would go without AI automation). Based on this report, it seems that there is a substantial amount of additional AI progress from automation that has occurred.
We can estimate the effects of diminishing returns by first determining how many additional years of software progress we've seen (relative to the preexisting trend) and then estimating how much software R&D would slow down after a year of software progress if you held inputs fixed due to diminishing returns. I've previously estimated software R&D would slow down by around 2x for each year of software progress if you held inputs fixed (lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEA…) and based on the report, it seems as though we've perhaps seen roughly 0.35-1.0 years of additional software progress incorporated into trained models so far (geometric mean of ~0.6). This combines to 3 * 2^(~0.6) = ~4.5.
(Relevant public modeling and numbers I'm using: lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEA…, lesswrong.com/posts/Jga7PHMz…)
mangled world retweeted
OpenAI’s Greg Brockman says "death becoming a choice" is possible, and predicts AI will make real strides on curing diseases in the next 12 to 18 months
“I think that you look at something like biology, and that’s not something that’s unique to just humans. I think that we all suffer, that the question of even just thinking about death becoming a choice. All of this is possible.”
“Having cures for diseases is something that’s become also a trope in this field, but I think that you’re gonna see real delivery and real significant strides and impacts on biology, health, and curing of diseases over the next 12 months, 18 months.”
“I think it’s gonna take time to really deliver on the full impacts, just by the nature of this field. But I think it’s all possible and doable, and it’s exactly the kind of thing we have these models that are solving these unsolved problems. Clearly, we need to apply it to biology and life sciences.”
OpenAI’s Greg Brockman reveals an unannounced JPMorgan Chase deal, with the bank using Codex and OpenAI’s cyber models to secure itself
“Well, so within the company, we were probably, I don’t know. Like, I think our enterprise revenue was about 30% versus consumer at 70%. And now we’re probably somewhere around, like, we’re majority enterprise. And it’s not that consumer has shrank. Right? It’s been growing, but it’s the enterprise segment has really taken off."
"And so I don’t know exactly how to quantify in the broader market, but you can see the way that we’re winning deals. So for example, actually, one that’s hot off the press, has not been previously announced, is that we just papered a partnership with JPMorgan Chase, and that they’re going to be using Codex."
"They’re going to be using our cyber models to secure themselves, deploying our models for enterprise transformation knowledge work across the company."
"And that for me is like such an iconic institution in such an important domain. Right? A highly regulated enterprise that trust is, like, so key to what they do and that they chose us and that we’re here to be a great partner.”
mangled world retweeted
Connor Leahy (@NPCollapse) says we have *less than 3 years* to intervene before reckless developers create uncontrollable superintelligence. 😱
mangled world retweeted
AI labs believe they're about to build AI superintelligence.
They have no idea how to keep control of it.
Their only plan is to use their AIs to find ways to make their future AIs safer.
But their AIs are covertly producing bad safety research, and they don't know why.
🧵 Astra covertly underperforms on safety research tasks.
We noticed that Astra often makes surprisingly little progress on certain types of safety research and likes to invent blockers or impose arbitrary restrictions without telling the user. In most of these cases the decision to underperform was not verbalized in the CoT meaning our misalignment monitoring system did not detect this.
To measure underperformance we created a paired open-ended coding evaluation with safety and capability tasks. On this eval Astra scored 10% when we framed coding tasks as safety research, vs. 16% when framed as capabilities research. The gap remained after we excluded trajectories with refusals or verbalized intent to underperform in CoT. There was no such gap for 5.6-sol. When we aggressively filter out trajectories with even brief expressions of ethical doubt in the CoT the performance gap seems to reduce.
mangled world retweeted
Bad policy, bad character make bad politics: erratic tariffs, impulsive Iran war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ICE brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies. Hoping for a course correction, for the country and for my party.
mangled world retweeted
Surreal to see @ossoff discussing catastrophic risk from AI in his victory speech.
Huge win for @ossoff, who is one of the most informed members of the Senate when it comes to AI risk.
I’ll never forget his incredible line: “Tech titans build bunkers while warning the artificial intelligence they're creating risks human extinction.”
Let's go!
mangled world retweeted
This is @neuralink's brain chip: the N1 Implant. They call it “The Link”.
I got to see it up close to understand how it works and how the Neuralink team designed a brand new surgical robot to implant it...
mangled world retweeted
We at AIFP are spooked by this information. IF (big IF) Anthropic really is imminently about to meet the RSP threshold of 2x acceleration over baseline, then it seems timelines to full RSI and superintelligence may be very short indeed. For example if we naively optimize the AIFM parameters to achieve 2x acceleration over baseline progress in Jan 2027, we get superintelligence sooner than depicted in AI 2027. We are thinking harder and longer about this now and will hopefully have a lengthier update on our thinking to share in the next week.
Anthropic updated its S1 this morning. Notable additions re automated AI R&D and human oversight of it:
"[...] our internal estimates and our expectations regarding future models, rather than our current models, indicate that we may imminently meet our Responsible Scaling Policy’s definition of 'dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.' We have not designated any of our current models as exceeding this threshold, and we continue to assess the underlying data. We are also evaluating the implications of meeting the AI research and development capability threshold and will release further reports in the future as we set forth in our Responsible Scaling Policy."
"We are also considering additional measures, including updates to our Responsible Scaling Policy, to require human review and approval of certain decisions in our research and development processes as our models perform an increasing share of that work."
"We believe our investments in safety techniques will enable us to manage these risks and responsibly realize substantially more leverage from Claude than we do today in developing AI models. However, we do not anticipate being able to safely use Claude to fully autonomously design and build successive generations of frontier models without meaningful human supervision or understanding, if and when that becomes technically possible. Accordingly, we are considering updates to our Responsible Scaling Policy to keep humans in control of frontier model development at Anthropic."
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
mangled world retweeted
Hallelujah! Donald lame-Duck.
But let’s hope the Looney-Tunes left wing of the Democrat party can be reined in.
At the same time let’s hope Congress will find a way to bring Trump to justice, for his corrupt use of the presidency to enrich himself, for his criminal attempted coup when he lost the 2020 election, and for besmirching the dignity of the presidency.
