Partner @coldspark. GOP Consultant. @theAAPC board. Catholic. Husband. Father 4x. @dietcoke enthusiast. Burkean. 🇺🇸 🇮🇪 🇻🇦
Pittsburgh
Joined December 2008
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Mark Davin Harris retweeted
Glad to have the support of my friend @DaveMcCormickPA. Looking forward to joining him in the Senate!
In the realm of good news, the GOP is getting better at mail in Pennsylvania. In every target state senate district the GOP is running 8 to 15 points better in mail returns than in 2022. I would not read anything more into it than that but still better news.
The Democratic share of the national early vote has gone 61% to 45% since Oct 1. That is not Republicans gaining ground.
Same 15 states both readings, so it is not the state mix. Mail is D+17, in person D+7. In-person voting opened, that is all.
Mark Davin Harris retweeted
🧵NC in-person EV is sitting at D+20.1/D+340K (modeled party applied to unaffiliated voters). This margin is down 1.8% from yesterday. It is still worse for the GOP vs 22 (D+8.5/D+102K) and 24 (R+1.4/R+41K). #ncpol
Interesting IRS data out today. Allegheny County continues to shrink. PA as a whole continues to lose people and money to other states. I was surprised that there is some rural growth going on which I did not expect.
If you're working on a campaign in a state with early voting, you should be pulling daily turnout data and comparing it to prior cycles.
The patterns tell you where to focus your field operation. High early turnout in your base precincts? Great, but don't get complacent on E-day.
Why MI surveys may be overstating El-Sayed. It's all about age. A lot of folks are setting age quotas by 2022 but... the electorate ain't looking like that. Sayed has Assad like 60 point margins with the under 30 demo, but... that demo is down 19% from 22.
ugh. Not great for the Republic.
New Gallup poll asks "which values the country most needs today?"
Out of a list of 12 values, Republicans put "patriotism" #1, for Dems it ranks dead last - by a lot.
Dems say "equality" is most needed, Republicans rank it 11th out of 12.
Just a reminder for all the polymarket is destiny stuff that Lula was at 15% the day before the election.
Mark Davin Harris retweeted
Rural Pennsylvania nuns are building massive stone monastery by hand: 'We had a vision' trib.al/b9JhQG0
Mark Davin Harris retweeted
🧵NC Early Vote in-person keeps shifting right. The margin improved 2.9% (modeled party applied to unaffiliated voters) to D+21.1%. The raw vote margin sits at D+292K vs D+76K in 2022 and R+42K in 2024. Budd lost EV by 107K, Trump won EV by 116K #ncpol
Mark Davin Harris retweeted
Georgia Early Vote in-person continues to improve for the GOP with the modeled partisanship margin, shrinking 1.3% from yesterday. The current margin for Early Vote in-person sits at D+11.2% (D+11.6% with mail returns included) #gapol
