Sous Chef. Mediocre Weatherman. IKEA Carpenter. AP Top 25 Voter. Preowned Airboat Enthusiast. Senior Director of Data & Analytics @ColdSpark
Joined April 2009
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Ryan Bonifay retweeted
With every caveat about using early vote data as predictive SDRs in NC show some dramatic swings among Hispanic/Latino Voters compared to 2022. Latinos make up over 9% of total SDRs compared to less than 4% with the 2 party margin going from D+43 to D+84
Early voting turnout across the country is elevated vs 2022 but is not uniform in its movement. The south is seeing extremely elevated turnout among minority voters and younger voters. The south is where the biggest surprises of the night may come
🧵GA early vote numbers improved for the GOP day-to-day but are still bad vs 22 and 24. The margin on in-person EV now sits at D+8.4 on modeled party (D+8.7 with mail). This down from D+9.1 yesterday. Modeled Dem turnout is up +14% vs 22 and modeled GOP is down -2% #gapol
The margin is now on track to end at D+8.8 following 2022 pace and D+9.3 following 2024 pace.
Of those who have voted, 164K modeled Dems did not vote in 2022 vs 76K modeled GOP. 137K modeled Dems voted on election day in 2022 vs 154K modeled GOP. #gapol
131K more black voters have cast a ballot compared to this point in 22, increasing the gap vs 22 by 17K from yesterday.
58K more voters between 18 to 29 have cast a ballot compared to this point in 22, increasing the gap vs 22 by 8K from yesterday #gapol
🧵NC in-person EV is sitting at D+17.1/D+351K (modeled party applied to unaffiliated voters). This margin is down 1.4% from yesterday. It is still worse for the GOP vs 22 (D+7.7/D+113K) and 24 (R+1.5/R+53K). #ncpol
41 of 50 State Senate are more Dem than 22 and all have moved more Dem than 24.
SDs 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 23, 24, 36, and 50 are all more GOP compared to 22.
SD 34 moved the most toward Dems compared to 22 (D+16.3) and SD 10 has done the same compared to 24 (D+24.2) #ncpol
99 of 120 House Districts moved more Dem compared to 22 and all have moved more Dem compared to 24.
HD 53 has moved the most toward Dems vs 2024 (D+25.1) and HD 104 has moved the most toward Dems vs 2022 (D+17.4)
HD 46 and HD 47 have moved R+23.7 and R+21.7 vs 2022 #ncpol
Ryan Bonifay retweeted
In the realm of good news, the GOP is getting better at mail in Pennsylvania. In every target state senate district the GOP is running 8 to 15 points better in mail returns than in 2022. I would not read anything more into it than that but still better news.
Ryan Bonifay retweeted
Thank you to all the fans for supporting our sport in 2026. Looking forward to Opening Day and the first pitch of 2027.
… Go Reds!
Ryan Bonifay retweeted
Scoop from @nancyayoussef
This means the Joint Staff that serves the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine is without its chief planner on the eve of possible resumption of strikes against Iran. It is the 2nd General serving in the Pentagon’s top planning role (J-5) that has been fired/forced out by Hegseth.
Breaking news from me: Hegseth pushes out another Top General on the Joint Staff, this time the J-5 theatlantic.com/national-sec…
Ryan Bonifay retweeted
For those monitoring the early vote drops on Election Night, it's likely those will contain a healthy share of D-leaning Independents, magnifying whatever party reg advantage Ds have with early voters.
Within almost all party x primary groups, those yet to vote lean R.
🧵GA early vote numbers are still bad for the GOP vs 22 and 24, but improved slightly. The margin on in-person EV now sits at D+9.1 on modeled party (D+9.4 with mail). This down from D+10.1 yesterday. Modeled Dem turnout is up +14% vs 22 and modeled GOP is down -3% #gapol
The margin is now on track to end at D+9.2 following 2022 pace and D+10.1 following 2024 pace.
Of those who have voted, 148K modeled Dems did not vote in 2022 vs 68K modeled GOP. 122K modeled Dems voted on election day in 2022 vs 135K modeled GOP. #gapol
114K more black voters have cast a ballot compared to this point in 22.
50K more voters between 18 to 29 have cast a ballot compared to this point in 22. #gapol
