Matthew Sinclair (@mjhsinclair) header
Matthew Sinclair (@mjhsinclair) profile picture

Economist

London
Joined February 2010
Photo by Matthew Sinclair (@mjhsinclair)Photo by Matthew Sinclair (@mjhsinclair)Photo by Matthew Sinclair (@mjhsinclair)Photo by Matthew Sinclair (@mjhsinclair)Photo by Matthew Sinclair (@mjhsinclair)
I wrote a more detailed explanation of how seizing the AI opportunity can ease the difficult tradeoffs facing Ministers for @CapX
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
I covered the budget last week and it was noticeable how little discussion there was of AI in the aftermath. I brought it up on TV with a Tory MP who said she'd forgotten to mention it - of course i've done that many times so I am very sympathetic but it felt telling Anyway, @ccianet have looked in more detail at the OBR's AI figures and even in the most conservative central scenario, AI-related growth is responsible for a third of the Chancellor’s headroom
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Huge deal. AI is generating more headroom for Healey.
OBR forecasts now model AI as a productivity driver. I ran OBR's three scenarios through to 2029-30 headroom: £14.5bn (central), £50bn (optimistic), £66.5bn (transformative). The upside case funds Transport and Home Office combined. My @ccianet analysis: ccianet.org/research/reports…
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
OBR forecasts now model AI as a productivity driver. I ran OBR's three scenarios through to 2029-30 headroom: £14.5bn (central), £50bn (optimistic), £66.5bn (transformative). The upside case funds Transport and Home Office combined. My @ccianet analysis: ccianet.org/research/reports…
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
A great pleasure to speak on @spectator / @ccianet standing-room-only panel in Birmingham, very ably chaired by @ShippersUnbound with @DrBenSpencer, @mjhsinclair, Chris Yiu, and Eve Lugg. We discussed how the UK can build on its technology strengths and gain leverage by taking an open approach, making Britian the best place in the world to invest in and grow companies, particularly by getting regulation right on issues like data, copyright, data centres, and AI.
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
This is very cool
I used GPT-6 Astra to break an unsolved cipher to one of Napoleon's generals that had gone unread for 217 years. What makes this impressive isn't actually the codebreaking, but that Astra completed the entire multi-modal workflow in ~6 hours from a single image and goal. 1/6🧵
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
Can't build superintelligence if you can't build anything
AI minister @KanishkaNarayan just declared that building superintelligence is already illegal in the UK because of copyright law —as well as practically impossible due to energy shortages and lack of data centres. A striking admission that the UK lacks sovereign capability at the frontier of AI. Some serious reform, particularly on copyright but also planning and energy, needed. Kanishka’s comments were made at the Politico Pub in Labour Party conference.
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
This latest case is an important reminder that the Government should be wary of new laws for ticket marketplaces, leaving consumers and artists alike with fewer options for buying and selling tickets.
Ellie Goulding is suing former managers Ben Mawson and Ed Millet of TaP Management. She claims they failed to disclose to her that TaP’s parent company, HNOE, was partially and then fully owned by Live Nation, creating a conflict of interest that benefited them and the company to the potential detriment of her career. Mawson and Millet managed the singer from 2018 through 2025, taking a 20% commission, according to the claim, and during their tenure, Goulding signed agreements with Live Nation companies for touring, merchandise and a documentary film. She claims she was unaware that Live Nation owned her management company and her managers were contractually “restrained” from any activity that might “terminate or otherwise reduce or diminish [their management clients’] business relationship in any respect with the Company [Live Nation] or any of its affiliates,” the claim states. variety.com/2026/music/news/…
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
When the Severe Alert system was established in 2024 it was made clear that: “There will be a very high threshold for its use based on strict criteria centred on an immediate risk to life.” Tonight’s use at a national level clearly doesn’t hit that threshold and opens the door to future misuse of the system. Labour needs to publish who signed off the decision to use the alert and the criteria that they were using.
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
Regulators are one of the biggest handbrakes on Britain’s economy. Every unnecessary intervention makes it harder to invest, innovate and grow, ultimately leaving consumers with fewer choices, slower innovation and higher costs. Too often, regulators seem more interested in redesigning successful markets than asking a simple question: does this actually make life better for ordinary people? The CMA, originally designed to promote consumer welfare, is a preeminent example of a regulator tha has totally fallen off the wagon. Its proposals for app stores are a quintessential example. Instead of focusing relentlessly on the outcomes consumers actually value, the CMA increasingly appears preoccupied with redesigning successful digital markets. That may satisfy a handful of well-connected commercial interests, but it doesn’t necessarily deliver better outcomes for the millions of people who use these services every day. Ask consumers what they want from their phones and apps: security, reliability, privacy, useful new features and the freedom to choose the products that work best for them. They don’t spend their evenings worrying about payment routing rules or app store fee structures. They care about having a safe, seamless and trustworthy experience. Competition policy should always start and end with consumers. If an intervention weakens the things consumers value most, namely security and usability, in pursuit of a theoretical vision of how a apps should operate, regulators should think twice before acting. The CMA’s job isn’t to redesign markets for the benefit of the loudest lobbyists. It’s to ensure consumers are better off.
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
New survey data sends a clear message to the UK CMA: protect the safety features consumers value. Nearly 7 in 10 UK consumers say payment security and knowing apps are checked for security risks are very important. ccianet.org/news/2026/07/uk-…
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Large chunk of this week was trying to get under the skin of the UK “social media ban”. Not a fan of the blanket ban approach generally, but this could be much more intrusive than Australia. ccianet.org/articles/how-the…
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The “we need to build our own” talk is putting your foot on the accelerator and the brake at the same time unless you address the regulatory barriers Julia raises here. It’s posing to say we need sovereign AI w/o tackling the worst copyright regime for AI of any major econ.
The UK commentariat will spend this week deluded about the Anthropic situation. “It’s just Trump.” “It’s a one-off.” “We can build our own.” “We don’t want or need crappy American AI anyway.” None of it holds up. US has been using AI as a geopolitical lever since 2022. Chip controls, model weight restrictions, Chip Security Act embedding trackers directly into hardware, and now model restrictions. The direction of travel is clear. The UK has four AI Growth Zones, two without delivery partners, and OpenAI paused its Stargate UK data centre in April. Powering a data centre here costs four times what it does in the US. It is illegal to build LLMs that could compete with Claude because we cannot train models in the UK under our copyright laws. The idea we will build our own infrastructure under business as usual is unrealistic. We need to adopt. We need the productivity gains. Debt servicing costs are at historic highs, the tax burden is already at a 70-year peak, and the OBR’s long-run projections assume some productivity recovery. If professional services (the one sector generating real trade surplus) gets automated away by American AI while UK firms lag on adoption, the fiscal math becomes genuinely dire. Under current trajectories, we will arrive late, dependent on foreign infrastructure, with no domestic capability and no leverage. Nobody is taking this seriously enough and I’m feeling despondent.
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✒️ Our latest substack — How to make Britain an AI haven is now live! Our first guest post from @mjhsinclair of @ccianet explores regulations that are limiting AI firms setting up shop in the UK. Watch the intro video here 👇
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
"But energy prices are set in world markets"... This lazy argument against using the UK's own oil and gas reserves has been debunked many times, but here are some key points... 🧵 1️⃣ this claim might be true of oil, but not of natural gas (which is much cheaper in the US)...
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Interesting new research from Public First on a social media ban - its apparent popularity collapses when alternatives are offered. publicfirsttech.substack.com…
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Matthew Sinclair retweeted
Horrifying Halloween haunt: UK regulator could ban teenagers engaging with videogame livestreams. @Ofcom is considering new safety measures that could restrict livestreaming interactions for under-18 year olds. 🎃👻 ccianet.org/news/2025/10/sur…
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.@Ofcom is exploring new restrictions on livestreaming, including limits on under-18s’ ability to interact. To inform the debate over this proposal, CCIA commissioned Public First to survey users of all ages on why they livestream and the social, educational, and economic benefits they gain. buff.ly/p38uVPm
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