Nancy M. Birdsall retweeted
The humility in this thread is in character. But the simple fact is that you took CGD to a new level and you’ve been a treasure for it and us. Thank you.
Oh we will miss you @cgdev Justin! ….while looking to you for another stream of insights on what we can do to make a more just and kinder world, bringing micro intelligence to your new macro challenges.
I think I've failed at that responsibility more often than not. But thank you to @nancymbirdsall for taking a gamble on me years ago, and to all of my mentors and collaborators over the years.
If I had it to do over, I'd choose this place again every time.
5/
I have left X. Too had. Twitter was great. Please find me @nbirdsall.bsky.social.
I have tried to stay off X since Musk bought it, but can't resist congratulating @mollykinder on this report on AI's effects on US workers (looks like plenty of Harris voters, few construction workers):brookings.edu/articles/gener…
Send to Kamala before tonight!
I’ve hesitated to say this at the risk of sounding hyperbolic, but with last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist. Economic growth is rip-roaring, with real GDP up 3% over the past year. Unemployment is low at near 4%, consistent with full employment. Inflation is fast closing in on Fed’s 2% target - grocery prices, rents and gas prices are flat to down over the past more than a year. Households’ financial obligations are light, and set to get lighter with the Fed cutting rates. House prices have never been higher, and most homeowners have more equity in their homes than ever. Corporate profits are robust, and the stock market is hitting a record high on a seemingly daily basis. Of course there are blemishes, as lower-income households are struggling financially, there is a severe shortage of affordable homes, and the government is running large budget deficits. And things could change quickly. There are plenty of threats. But in my time as an economist, the economy has rarely looked better.
Nancy M. Birdsall retweeted
And @RuthLevine5 suggesting in 2004 that "A commitment to pay for an effective malaria vaccine would spur fresh research into neglected possibilities, as companies compete for the rewards of success." Wish we'd done that.
cgdev.org/blog/solving-real-…
This sound right to me, though macro not my thing. View of @lhsummers?
nytimes.com/2024/07/29/opini…
Congratulations to @glassmanamanda on the 10th anniversary of your "baby" ISDI cgdev.org/event/celebrating-…
"Women's good financial behavior is penalized rather than prized." Terrific analysis of unusual data -- in Colombia but probably universal -- read and see why. cgdev.org/blog/undoing-gende… @mayrabuvinic @CGDev
Nancy M. Birdsall retweeted
In sum, Biden should align his policy and his rhetoric. A firm commitment to ethics reform would focus attention on the ethical blunders of Thomas and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. It would also put Republicans on defense and build consensus for the idea. With public opinion strongly on his side, Biden can push for term limits even if he doesn’t want to embrace the more controversial idea of court expansion.
The more focus on the Supreme Court, whose approval is historically low and whose rulings infuriate large numbers of voters, the better for Democrats. If Biden prevails and Democrats win majorities in both houses, he can then claim a mandate to push forward.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
G20 recent & future hosts Indonesia, India, Brazil, South Africa are key to forging a 21st century Bretton Woods II model: cgdev.org/blog/financing-sdg… @BSW98860983 @BSW98860983 @Nancyb_Lee
Nancy M. Birdsall retweeted
Getting whiplash when it comes to the Administration’s behavior toward refugees/asylum seekers but yay to this.
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Reminds me to ask: Fewer medical students in obstetrics applying to residencies in Texas & Florida & other red states?
Nancy M. Birdsall retweeted
Lower employment of US scientists and engineers in the chip industry, fewer domestic students taking science and engineering courses, more offshoring to countries with better immigration rules… (caveat: d in d).
Repercussions of protectionist policies implemented in the US since 2018 on the composition of the workforce and career choices within the semiconductor industry, from Mehmet I. Canayaz, Isil Erel, and Umit G. Gurun nber.org/papers/w32466
Nice to see @m_clem quoted in front page Washington Post today: "Job Market could suffer with Trump's migrant plans."
Nancy M. Birdsall retweeted
Honored to be invited to the @NBERpubs Summer Institute to present work with @ethanglewis
nber.org/conferences/si-2024…
We just updated our study of randomized work visas, doubling the original sample size under the same pre-analysis plan —> nber.org/papers/w30589
Great! But really you have to ask why it took so long: Where was the resistance? Just IMF board bureaucracy?
(maybe gated)
devex.com/news/imf-greenligh…
"For example, what’s the point of trying to tally up the potential economic costs of tariffs based on models that assume an even global playing field, when no country, certainly not a rich one with decent environmental and labour standards, could compete on price with China in any area of production?"
Got me thinking....but 100% tariff? ft.com/content/d81f1e71-ab56… @briandeeseNEC
This paper makes me happy. It's a new reaction to a paper in @REstat (!)
More schooling has large causal effects on pro-climate outcomes in 20 European countries. Just Accepted new paper by Noam Angrist (@angrist_noam); Harry Anthony Patrinos (@hpatrinos); Joshua Graff Zivin (@GraffZivin); Kevin Winseck zurl.co/8MsZ
