From Argentina, living in London, husband of Vir, father of Vicente, Emilia, Olivia and Lorenzo; Team LOVE. Trade Agriculture Commodities. And few other things.
London, England
Joined March 2009
- Tweets10.2K
- Following5.3K
- Followers682
- Likes36.4K
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Soybeans look very interesting at current levels
With the North American crop now largely in the bin and the Brazilian weather market just getting underway, the fundamental backdrop is shifting.
Technically, price is testing key uptrend support after the recent pullback. I think that is a potentially attractive area for those watching the market.
Nicolas Backer retweeted
China 2026/27 Soybean Imports - Who’s Right?
🇺🇸 USDA WASDE: 115 MMT (Oct 9, unch.)
🇺🇸 USDA attaché Beijing: 110 MMT (raised from 108 on Nov 4)
🇨🇳 China CASDE: 95.5 MMT (unch.)
🔹 2025 record: 111.8 MMT. Beijing’s number is 15% below it. SOEs have booked 15.1 of the 25 MMT U.S. pledge.
🔹 The 19.5 MMT gap is the whole bean story longer term. Beijing’s 95.5 is a policy wish (meal-inclusion cuts, record stocks); the attaché nudging up toward 110 says demand isn’t rolling over. If USDA is right, the 25 MMT U.S. pledge is 22% of China’s book, Brazil still gets the rest.
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state has received just 61% of normal precipitation over the 30 days ending November 2, 2026.
Mato Grosso’s soybean production-weighted precipitation was 39% below normal during this period. First-season corn areas recorded the same precipitation deficit.
Why does this matter for soybeans?
Mato Grosso accounted for 28.3% of Brazil’s soybean production during 2020–2024, more than double the 13.9% share of Paraná, the country’s second-largest soybean-producing state.
The contrast is notable: while Mato Grosso received just 61% of normal precipitation, Paraná received 211% over the same 30-day period.
#OOTT #AgWx #GrainMarkets #Soybeans #Soja #Corn #CornBelt #Milho
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Yes. I reviewed the 10yr/BBB Spread on The Macro Show this morning - its signaling that #Quad4 is up next for US corporate Credit Risk
Nicolas Backer retweeted
$MELI Q3 EARNINGS
• Revenue $10.75B vs Est. $10.71B
• Net Income $448M vs Est. $478M
• TPV $109B (+53% YoY)
• GMV $23B (+38% YOY)
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Brazil’s soybean planting reached 54.3% as of October 30, but state-level deviations range from +13% in Goiás to -8% in Mato Grosso do Sul.
Nationally, planting shows a +2.5% deviation from the CONAB five-year average.
State-by-state soybean planting progress
% planted | % deviation from CONAB 5-year average
• Mato Grosso: 91% | +6%
• Goiás: 58% | +13%
• Mato Grosso do Sul: 68% | -8%
• Paraná: 62% | -7%
• São Paulo: 70% | -5%
• Minas Gerais: 37% | +5%
• Bahia: 25% | +7%
• Tocantins: 18% | -3%
• Rio Grande do Sul: 11% | +3%
• Santa Catarina: 19% | 0%
• Maranhão: 9% | -1%
• Piauí: 3% | 0%
Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, was already 91% planted, with a +6% deviation from its five-year average.
While Brazil is ahead of its historical planting pace nationally, the state-level data show notable differences across producing regions.
#OOTT #AgWx #Soybeans #Brazil #Soja #GrainMarkets
Nicolas Backer retweeted
September whole-US soybean crush, 198.8 mil bu, was just under the 200.7 expectation. This is -3.0% year/year. USDA's goal for the year is +5.1%. The goal for the remaining 11 months now runs +5.7%.
Nicolas Backer retweeted
EUDR: European regulations are shielding Argentine soybean meal from downward price shocks bichosdecampo.com/eudr-la-no…
Nicolas Backer retweeted
EL MOMENTO QUE QUEDARÁ EN LA HISTORIA: ¡ÉPICA FOTO DE KIMI ANTONELLI JUNTO A MAX VERSTAPPEN Y LEWIS HAMILTON!
📺 #MexicoGP | Toda la temporada de #F1 por ESPN en el Plan Premium de #DisneyPlus
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Brazil & Argentina rainfall, 30 days through Nov 1 (inches):
🇧🇷 Mato Grosso 4–6.5" still below normal
🇧🇷 Paraná 12–20"+, Santa Catarina 20"+ flooding, soy planting stalled
🇦🇷 Córdoba 4–7.5", Río Cuarto took 2.6" in 24 hrs Sunday, with hail
🇦🇷 Buenos Aires / Santa Fe 5.5–9", Entre Ríos 6–10” Sunday's storms added another 2–3.5" across the western Pampas.
🔸 Brazil is two stories: South is drowning, Mato Grosso is still waiting on a real wet-season pattern. Watch MT's next 7 days, not the national average. #soybeans 🌱 #corn 🌽 #Brazil 🇧🇷 #Argentina 🇦🇷
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Canada's Canola Stocks Surge 32% — A Bearish Signal for Global Oilseed Markets
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has sharply raised its 2026/27 canola ending stocks forecast by 475,000 tonnes to 1.979 million tonnes, versus 1.504 million tonnes estimated in August.
Key developments:
• 2026/27 ending stocks: 1.979 million tonnes, up 32% from August's estimate.\
• Previous season ending stocks: revised upward by 175,000 tonnes to 1.9 million tonnes.\
• Higher carryover stocks signal increasingly comfortable Canadian supplies.
The bearish implications extend across the entire canola complex:
1. Canola seed: Greater availability could intensify export competition and weigh on spot prices and futures.
2. Canola oil: Cheaper seed could reduce crushing costs, weakening oil price support.
3. Canola meal: Higher crushing activity could expand meal supplies and intensify competition in the feed market.
The critical question now is whether export demand and domestic crushing can absorb the growing surplus.
With Canada among the world's largest canola exporters, rising inventories could become a formidable headwind for the global rapeseed, vegetable oil and oilmeal markets in MY 2026/27.
\#Canola #Rapeseed #VegetableOil #Oilseeds #AgTwitter
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Smeal and SBO markets
1. Arg + Brz export program 3.6 Mi t bigger YoY (Jan-Dec). The increase is coming from Brz. Export numbers in Brz from Jan through Oct 28 implies +4.5 Mi t crush.
2. Arg smeal is the most competitive after adjusting quality and freight spreads.
3. EU buyers increased purchases in Arg for ASO window, meal that will arrive before EUDR.
4. SBO export program Arg + Brz is bigger. BD mix in Brz didn't grow as expected. Crush margin and BD margin this year in Brz has been bad since July. Even though, crush expanded - more oil to export.
Nicolas Backer retweeted
Funds kept selling across the grain complex in the week ending Oct 27. #Corn saw a 6th straight week of fund selling, down 90,315 contracts to a net long of +55,943. That is 375,119 contracts gone since the Sep 1 record long of +431K, leaving the smallest net long since Jul 14 and a 42nd percentile book since 2006. #Soybeans were sold for a 3rd straight week, down 21,536 to +185,400 net long, 80,631 below the Sep 8 record but still a 92nd percentile position. Chicago #wheat funds sold for an 8th straight week, down 23,726 to a net short of -74,859, the largest since Jun 9 and 89,513 contracts of selling over the eight-week run. KC wheat flipped net short, down 8,260 to -1,865, the first net short since Jun 23 after seven straight weeks of selling unwound the late-September long.
The fund length that carried corn and both wheats through late summer is largely gone, and Chicago wheat's short is getting stretched. Soybeans are the holdout, with funds trimming rather than leaving ahead of the Nov 10 WASDE.
#Corn 🌽 #Soybeans 🌱 #Wheat 🌾
Nicolas Backer retweeted
#earnings for the next week:
$TEM $AAPL $PLTR $ON $O $SHOP $PFE $AMD $SMCI $ANET $ALAB $BKNG $DUOL $AMGN $NVTS $XYZ $UBER $MCD $DDOG $NVO $COHR $QCOM $ARM $MELI $APP $DASH $BROS $SNAP $FIG $CELH $EOSE $OSCR $LMND $IREN $NET $AAOI $IONQ $LITE $ABNB $SOUN $KTOS $AFRM $MRNA $OKLO
Nicolas Backer retweeted
#earnings for the week of November 2, 2026
earningswhispers.com/calweek
$AAPL $PLTR $AMD $DIBS $APP $AEHR $QCOM $AMC $SHOP $MRNA $SMCI $TXG $UBER $LITE $COHR $CHKP $KTOS $NVTS $ANET $FSLY $AAOI $BMRN $VSH $NET $OKLO $DOCS $TEM $PFE $CIFR $EL $CAVA $RIOT $BKNG $TEAM $NVO $ABNB $ETN $BXSL $MPC $FN $GFS $DDOG $MP $U $IREN $FISV $BROS $RUN $ALAB $ARM
ALT The most anticipated earnings releases for the week of November 2, 2026, are Apple #AAPL, Palantir Technologies #PLTR, Advanced Micro Devices #AMD, 1stDibs #DIBS, AppLovin #APP, Aehr Test Systems #AEHR, Qualcomm #QCOM, AMC Entertainment #AMC, Shopify #SHOP, and Moderna #MRNA.
Nicolas Backer retweeted
$AMZN Q3 2026 earnings:
• Revenue: $201.9B vs $202.3B est. (+12% YoY)
• EPS: $1.89 vs $1.96 est.
• Operating Income: $28.1B vs $26.2B est.
• AWS Sales: $46B vs $45.4B est. (+39% YoY)
𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸
• Revenue: $240B-$247B vs $244.5B est.
• OP. income: $28.5B-$33.5B vs $33.1B est.
𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
• CapEx: $77.3B
• Advertising: $19.6B
