MBBS in view • Health, Leadership & Business • iEducate, iBuild, iShare, iLead • My Mantra: Slowly But Surely
Benin-City, Nigeria
Joined July 2016
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Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye retweeted
1. 비트코인이 7만 달러가 깨짐.
2. 9월 고점에 산 사람은 20% 손해임.
3. 다시 반등할 거라는 말이 나옴.
4. 6월에도 6만 달러 밑까지 빠졌다가 50% 올랐으니까.
5. 근데 그때 반등에 들어온 돈이 지금은 반대로 빠지는 중임;
6. 그 돈은 현물 ETF로 들어온 돈임.
7. 현물 ETF는 비트코인을 실제로 사서 보관하는 미국 상장 펀드임.
8. 주식처럼 사고팔 수 있어서 주식 계좌의 돈이 이리로 들어옴.
9. 반등하던 3달 동안 이 ETF로 64억 달러가 들어왔음.
10. 11월엔 2주 만에 22억 달러가 빠졌음.
11. 빠지는 이유 하나는 의외로 엔비디아임.
12. 이번 주 엔비디아는 13%, 비트코인은 10% 빠졌음.
13. 나스닥은 오히려 2% 올랐음.
14. 5거래일 내내 비트코인은 엔비디아와 같은 방향이었음.
15. 젠슨 황이 엔비디아를 떠난 주였음.
16. 엔비디아 그래픽카드로 코인을 캐서 같이 빠진 걸까?
17. 그건 아님.
18. 비트코인은 전용 채굴기로 캠.
그래픽카드로 캐던 이더리움은 22년에 채굴을 없앴음.
19. 둘을 묶은 건 기계가 아니라 돈임.
AI 주식과 비트코인을 같이 든 돈이 둘 다 줄인 거에 가까움.
20. 최근 한 달 엔비디아가 1% 움직일 때 비트코인은 평균 0.4% 따라갔음.
21. 이 비율로 치면 이번 주 비트코인 하락의 절반쯤이 엔비디아 몫임.
22. 나머지 절반은 금리와 코인 쪽 이유임.
23. 금리는 하락을 키웠음.
24. 미국 물가가 예상보다 안 잡히고 있음.
25. 에너지와 식품을 뺀 근원물가가 3달째 한 달 0.3%씩 올랐음.
1년으로 치면 3.6%라 연준 목표인 2%의 두 배 가까이임.
26. 그러자 이번 주 12월 금리 인상 확률이 77%에서 100%가 됐음.
선물시장에 걸린 돈으로 계산한 확률임.
27. 금리가 오르면 이자를 주는 예금과 국채로 돈이 몰림.
28. 달러는 19개월 만에 가장 비싸졌고,
이자를 안 주는 금은 52주 최저까지 빠졌음.
29. 비트코인도 이자가 없는 자산이라 같이 빠진 거임.
30. 코인 쪽 이유도 있음.
31. 비트코인을 제일 많이 사 온 회사도 살 돈이 줄게 생겼음.
32. 미국 상장사 스트래티지임.
새 주식을 팔아 모은 돈으로 비트코인을 계속 사 온 회사임.
33. 근데 MSCI가 이 회사를 주가지수에서 빼기로 했음.
34. MSCI는 전 세계 펀드가 그대로 따라 사는 지수를 만드는 회사임.
35. 그 지수를 따라 사는 펀드는 11월 30일까지 이 주식 16억 달러어치를 팔아야 함.
36. 주가가 눌리면 새 주식을 팔아 모을 수 있는 돈도 줄었음.
37. 그럼 빚이 터진 건 아닐까?
38. 빚이 터진 하락은 아님.
39. 코인 선물은 돈을 빌려 몇 배로 거는 거래임.
40. 가격이 반대로 가면 거래소가 강제로 팔아버림.
이걸 강제 청산이라고 함.
41. 7만 달러가 깨진 날 24시간 강제 청산은 16억 달러였음.
42. 작년 10월 하락이 시작된 날엔 하루 190억 달러였음;
43. 이번엔 빚이 털린 게 아니라 들고 있던 사람들이 판 거임.
그래서 청산이 끝났다고 바닥이 오는 것도 아님.
44. 그럼 9월 반등은 어떻게 된 걸까?
45. 9월 반등은 짭반등이 됐음.
다시 하락으로 돌아간 가짜 반등이라는 뜻임.
46. 9월 글에서 이 반등을 찐반등으로 봤음.
47. 찐반등은 폭락 뒤 200일선을 회복하고 그 위에서 30일을 버틴 반등임.
200일선은 최근 200일 가격의 평균을 날마다 이은 선임.
48. 이 조건을 채운 지난 5번은 모두 다시 고점을 찍었음.
비트코인은 9월 17일에 여섯 번째로 이 조건을 채웠음.
49. 다만 조정이 와도 그때 200일선이던 7만 달러 위에서 멈춰야 했음.
밑으로 뚫리면 짭반등이라고 했음.
50. 14일 오전 9시 마감가는 6.8만 달러였음.
51. 30일을 버티고도 짭반등이 된 건 이번이 처음임.
52. 13일 밤에 7만 달러를 다시 넘은 건 반등 아님?
53. 아님.
54. 숏이 정리되면서 잠깐 오른 거였음.
55. 숏은 가격이 떨어지면 버는 쪽에 건 거래임.
가격이 오르면 거래소가 강제로 다시 사게 만듬.
56. 13일 밤 미국 물가 지표가 예상보다 낮게 나오자,
금리 걱정이 잠깐 줄면서 숏이 한꺼번에 정리됐음.
57. 그때 7만 달러를 잠깐 넘었다가,
한두 시간 만에 다시 6.9만 달러 밑으로 밀렸음.
58. 바닥은 이런 반짝 반등이 아니라 다시 들어오는 돈이 만듬.
59. 그 돈은 아직 나가는 중임.
제일 큰 블랙록 ETF에선 11월 들어 9거래일 연속 돈이 나갔음.
60. 그럼 3년 뒤는 어떨까?
61. 3년 뒤를 봐도 답은 같음.
다음 상승장도 새 돈이 들어와야 옴.
62. 그 돈이 들어오는지는 스테이블코인으로 보임.
가격을 1달러에 묶어 둔 코인임.
63. 코인 거래에 쓰려고 달러를 바꿔 둔 돈이라,
이게 늘어야 비트코인을 살 돈도 늘어남.
64. 잔액은 2,880억 달러로 이번 달 들어 조금 줄었음.
65. 그 돈을 불러올 법은 클래리티법임.
미국에서 코인을 어떤 규칙으로 다룰지 정하는 법이라,
통과되면 기관 돈이 코인에 들어오기 쉬워짐.
66. 9월 상원 표결에서 49 대 50으로 막혀 아직 통과 전임.
67. 이번 하락에서 비트코인은 빚이 아니라 주식 계좌의 돈을 따라 움직였음.
그 돈이 빠져서 7만 달러가 깨졌고, 그 돈이 돌아와야 반등함.
68. 다음은 미국 시간 17일, 엔비디아 실적임.
✅️3줄요약
1. 6월 같은 반등은 아직 아님.
그 반등 때 들어온 ETF 돈이 11월엔 2주 만에 22억 달러 빠졌음.
2. 이번 주 하락의 절반쯤은 엔비디아를 따라 나간 같은 돈임.
나머지는 금리와 스트래티지 때문이고, 빚 청산은 작았음.
3. 9월 반등은 7만 달러를 지키지 못해 짭반등이 됐음.
바닥은 청산이 끝날 때가 아니라 빠져나간 돈이 돌아올 때 나옴.
69. 9월 같은 반등 뒤 200일선이 깨졌던 지난 3번,
비트코인이 어디까지 빠졌는지 네프콘에 정리해둠.
70. ETF로 들어온 돈이 평균 얼마에 비트코인을 샀는지도 계산해둠.
JUST IN: BlackRock sold $143.53 million worth of $BTC.
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Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye retweeted
Becoming Doctor Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye.
The beginning of the end is the journey.
Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye retweeted
BREAKING: An open letter to reinstate Jensen Huang as CEO of Nvidia, $NVDA, now has over 65,000 signatures, alleging that Huang was removed "without meaningful due process."
The letter has been signed by more than 35,000 shareholders and 4,700 current and former Nvidia employees.
Elon Musk has publicly stated that he has signed the petition and fully supports Huang's return to the company.
We maintain our view that Huang was removed prematurely, without a conclusive investigation.
Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye retweeted
Individuals like this are honestly tiring.
Nigeria is a democratic federation, for God’s sake, with a documented constitution.
We have 37 territories, 774 local government areas, and 8,809 wards. This translates to 774 local government chairmen and 8,809 councillors.
The lowest tier of government has more effect on the life of an average citizen than the president does.
This is pure intellectual dishonesty and is anti-developmental to the growth of the country. If we can’t start playing our own constitutional roles as citizens, Nigeria will never progress.
The saviour mentality is destroying the country. The nation can only be built by everyone, unless you want an authoritarian regime.
Individuals like this are honestly tiring.
Nigeria is a democratic federation, for God’s sake, with a documented constitution.
We have 37 territories, 774 local government areas, and 8,809 wards. This translates to 774 local government chairmen and 8,809 councillors.
The lowest tier of government has more effect on the life of an average citizen than the president does.
This is pure intellectual dishonesty and is anti-developmental to the growth of the country. If we can’t start playing our own constitutional roles as citizens, Nigeria will never progress.
The saviour mentality is destroying the country. The nation can only be built by everyone, unless you want an authoritarian regime.
Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye retweeted
Sabinus came online and made a solid statement about local government accountability, which is constitutionally recognized and important for growth.
It is still being challenged, and he’s being insulted and tagged as paid. This is a simple observation most of us knew long before now.
The ignorant ones are still arguing instead of building on this fact.
Honestly, I understand why Bola Ahmed Tinubu doesn’t like campaigning by presenting his fact-based ideas.
It’s pointless; better to just share money for votes and make the right decisions in office. The population is too uninformed, easily misinformed, and terribly ignorant.
Thank you.
You’re miseducating him, sir.
First, you’re confusing the political realities of Nigeria’s federal system with its constitutional structure. The fact that governors have historically exercised control over local government finances does not make local government chairmen constitutionally subordinate to the president.
In fact, the Supreme Court’s July 2024 judgment on local government autonomy addressed the unconstitutional interference of state governments in local government administration and finances.
Second, you claim that the president can seize local government allocations, citing the situation in Osun State. Does the fact that a president exercises a particular power necessarily mean that the exercise is constitutional? What provision of the Constitution gives the president an unrestricted power to withhold local government allocations?
Third, you argue that the president is the only person who can change the situation. On what constitutional basis? Are governors, state legislators, local government chairmen and other public officials relieved of their constitutional responsibilities simply because the president is ineffective?
Fourth, you’re confusing political influence with constitutional authority. The president may exercise considerable political influence, but that does not make governors and local government chairmen his subordinates. Nigeria is a federation, not a unitary state.
Fifth, you describe local government chairmen as insignificant. Really? These are officials responsible for important functions affecting the daily lives of citizens, including local roads, markets, sanitation and other services within their constitutional and statutory responsibilities.
Now, let’s examine the logical implication of your argument.
You claim that until Nigeria gets the presidency right, it cannot have effective local government administration.
Does that mean Nigerians should stop demanding accountability from their governors and local government chairmen whenever the president performs poorly?
If a governor misappropriates public funds, should citizens excuse him because the president has failed?
If a local government chairman fails to account for public resources under his control, should citizens simply wait until another president is elected?
Your argument rests on the assumption that accountability must flow exclusively from the top down. But democratic accountability is not conditional upon the competence of one elected official.
You correctly identify the problem of excessive political interference in local government administration, only to propose a theory that makes the entire federation dependent on the presidency.
That’s precisely the concentration of political responsibility that federalism is intended to avoid.
A dysfunctional presidency does not absolve governors, legislators or local government chairmen of their responsibilities.
You can hold the president accountable without treating every other elected official as an innocent bystander.
And demanding accountability from state and local governments is not a partisan talking point. It is a fundamental democratic obligation, regardless of which political party controls the presidency.
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Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye retweeted
You’re miseducating him, sir.
First, you’re confusing the political realities of Nigeria’s federal system with its constitutional structure. The fact that governors have historically exercised control over local government finances does not make local government chairmen constitutionally subordinate to the president.
In fact, the Supreme Court’s July 2024 judgment on local government autonomy addressed the unconstitutional interference of state governments in local government administration and finances.
Second, you claim that the president can seize local government allocations, citing the situation in Osun State. Does the fact that a president exercises a particular power necessarily mean that the exercise is constitutional? What provision of the Constitution gives the president an unrestricted power to withhold local government allocations?
Third, you argue that the president is the only person who can change the situation. On what constitutional basis? Are governors, state legislators, local government chairmen and other public officials relieved of their constitutional responsibilities simply because the president is ineffective?
Fourth, you’re confusing political influence with constitutional authority. The president may exercise considerable political influence, but that does not make governors and local government chairmen his subordinates. Nigeria is a federation, not a unitary state.
Fifth, you describe local government chairmen as insignificant. Really? These are officials responsible for important functions affecting the daily lives of citizens, including local roads, markets, sanitation and other services within their constitutional and statutory responsibilities.
Now, let’s examine the logical implication of your argument.
You claim that until Nigeria gets the presidency right, it cannot have effective local government administration.
Does that mean Nigerians should stop demanding accountability from their governors and local government chairmen whenever the president performs poorly?
If a governor misappropriates public funds, should citizens excuse him because the president has failed?
If a local government chairman fails to account for public resources under his control, should citizens simply wait until another president is elected?
Your argument rests on the assumption that accountability must flow exclusively from the top down. But democratic accountability is not conditional upon the competence of one elected official.
You correctly identify the problem of excessive political interference in local government administration, only to propose a theory that makes the entire federation dependent on the presidency.
That’s precisely the concentration of political responsibility that federalism is intended to avoid.
A dysfunctional presidency does not absolve governors, legislators or local government chairmen of their responsibilities.
You can hold the president accountable without treating every other elected official as an innocent bystander.
And demanding accountability from state and local governments is not a partisan talking point. It is a fundamental democratic obligation, regardless of which political party controls the presidency.
Sabinus permit me to educate you.
Many local government chairman do not have the autonomy as the govenors actually control the money.
Also, we have seen that the president can seize a local government allocation as we are seeing in Osun state.
But back to the governors, many governors have put people in local government position not because of competence but because they want them there to help them embezzle.
This is happening because the people do not pick their leaders. The only person that can change that is the president.
Also, we have a state capture so much so that governors, judiciary and lawmakers are all standing on the president's mandates.
So if you don't have a working president, you don't get to have a working LG chairman that you are trying to blame.
The problem cannot be solved from the bottom, it must be solved from the top.
Until we get the presidency right, Nigeria will never be right.
So stop talking about the insignificant local government chairman and focus on the president.
Sabinus who is your candidate?
You go vote abi you no go vote?
This is one of the best takes I've seen on this topic.
Education correlates rather weakly with political literacy, such that; what is causing this unprecedented acceptance of falsehoods is the inclination to wanting to distrust the system totally…to wanting to do what politics always does, Which is to put us against them.
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Sabinus came online and made a solid statement about local government accountability, which is constitutionally recognized and important for growth.
It is still being challenged, and he’s being insulted and tagged as paid. This is a simple observation most of us knew long before now.
The ignorant ones are still arguing instead of building on this fact.
Honestly, I understand why Bola Ahmed Tinubu doesn’t like campaigning by presenting his fact-based ideas.
It’s pointless; better to just share money for votes and make the right decisions in office. The population is too uninformed, easily misinformed, and terribly ignorant.
This is extremely ridiculous.
Political violence shouldn’t be allowed or tolerated, irrespective of who benefits.
We are all citizens of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
This is very unpatriotic. I can’t believe this.
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Izehiuwa Fortune Olaye retweeted
An informed citizen is much harder to manipulate than an angry one.
When Belinda Uju made this statement on the Honest Bunch podcast, many people said it was offensive.
An image of someone who isn’t the INEC chairman but is tagged as such is circulating, and people are running with the narrative again.
Too many misinformed individuals don’t even know who the INEC chairman is.
The same people don’t know citizens’ duties in local government accountability.
Socrates was right: democracy should involve only the informed majority, because the majority is generally too uninformed and easily misinformed.
An informed citizen is much harder to manipulate than an angry one.
When Belinda Uju made this statement on the Honest Bunch podcast, many people said it was offensive.
An image of someone who isn’t the INEC chairman but is tagged as such is circulating, and people are running with the narrative again.
Too many misinformed individuals don’t even know who the INEC chairman is.
The same people don’t know citizens’ duties in local government accountability.
Socrates was right: democracy should involve only the informed majority, because the majority is generally too uninformed and easily misinformed.
I sacrificed yesterday to ensure the legacy I'm building starts with perfection.
“You have to think beyond yourself.”
To pursue a legacy, you have to live outside time.
You have to think beyond yourself, beyond your immediate circumstances and beyond your own lifetime.
You have to consider not just those who came before you or those living alongside you but those who will come after you.
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