Faka 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸🇱🇧

Em Campo Alegre (AL), Lula fez o equivalente a pegar 100% da 3ª via de centro-direita, a tomar toda a redução de abstenção e de nulos/brancos e ainda a virar 71 votos do Flávio (sendo que alguns poderiam ter anulado, mas TODOS decidiram fazer o L). Fenomenal!

O curioso caso de CAMPO ALEGRE - AL Prefeito do PP 13 vereadores, nenhum do PT Votos em disputa: - Outros candidatos -> 730 - Redução de brancos e nulos -> 708 (abstenção caiu quase 70% no municipio!!) - Aumento de comparecimento -> 158 Total -> 1.596 Variação para Lula -> +1.667 Variação para Flávio -> -71 Lula é um fenômeno eleitoral neste 2 turno!

🚨UTILIDADE PÚBLICA: Em 3.042 seções @FlavioBolsonaro fez no máximo 10 votos. Lula somou 395 mil. 0 votos: 106 seções → Lula 14.860 1 voto: 125 seções → Lula 15.408 2 votos: 163 seções → Lula 18.832 3 votos: 245 seções → Lula 29.707 4 votos: 262 seções → Lula 31.985 5 votos: 257 seções → Lula 31.265 6 votos: 312 seções → Lula 40.096 7 votos: 362 seções → Lula 47.926 8 votos: 371 seções → Lula 48.090 9 votos: 415 seções → Lula 58.941 10 votos: 424 seções → Lula 58.105 Total: 3.042 seções → Lula 395.215 votos Fonte: TSE

Veja isso, região dos lagos equivalente a jogar uma moeda normal + 18mil x e cair cara em sequência...

No modelo binomial (p≈66,7% para Flávio nos ~985 votos a mais), a chance de ele ficar com ≤1 é da ordem de 10^{-468}. Equivalente a ganhar a Mega-Sena 61 vezes seguidas, ou tirar cara em 1550 jogadas de moeda.

British pedophile John Maynard Keynes made one genuinely useful observation: in a severe deflationary panic, when businesses freeze and nobody spends, government can sometimes break the paralysis. During 1930 to 1932, as the Federal Reserve actively contracted the money supply and Hoover raised taxes mid-depression, aggregate spending collapsed. Keynes identified that rigid nominal wages meant unemployment rather than wage cuts when demand fell. But he built a catastrophically wrong policy architecture on top of it. The core error was treating consumption as the engine of prosperity. Capital formation drives living standards. Savings fund the machines, the supply chains, the research labs that make your dollar buy more next decade than it does today. Keynes dismissed this with his "paradox of thrift," which reframes savers as economic saboteurs. They fund tomorrow instead. The multiplier is fiction. Government borrows a dollar from the private sector, spends it, and Keynesians count the downstream purchases while ignoring the upstream subtraction. Frederick Bastiat called this the broken window fallacy in 1850, and Keynes simply repeated the error, this time using algebra. His followers made the original sin even worse. By 1971, Richard Nixon had absorbed enough Keynesianism to sever the last gold link entirely, handing central banks the wheel with no road. The 2008 stimulus, the 2020 $6 trillion blowout, the 14.7% CPI spike you absorbed at the grocery store in 2022, all trace directly to the intellectual permission structure Keynes created. He gave politicians a permanent excuse to spend money they don't have and inflate away the debt your savings absorb. One useful observation mangled into a century of monetary wreckage.

MENSAGEM AO PR @jairbolsonaro . Presidente, sou um cidadão como o Sr.: cristão, conservador, e patriota. Apoiei sua candidatura desde 2015, qdo ninguém acreditava na possibilidade do Brasil escolher um conservador como presidente. Defendi-a com firmeza e autêntica convicção. ⬇️

🇺🇸🇨🇳 China is no longer expected to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy anytime soon, marking a major shift from predictions made over the past two decades. For years, economists expected China's rapid growth to continue until its economy surpassed America's, with some forecasts predicting that would happen before 2020. But those predictions have repeatedly been pushed back. According to Oxford Economics data, China's economy reached roughly 77% of U.S. GDP in 2021 before falling back to around 67% in 2025. The latest forecast suggests China's economy will reach only about 84% of America's by 2040. The comparison uses nominal GDP, measured in U.S. dollars, meaning exchange rates also influence the figures. China's economic rise has been extraordinary, but the expectation that it would inevitably overtake the United States is looking increasingly uncertain. Source: Financial Times / Oxford Economics / Writer: Mhedi

🚨 TWO MAJOR RESEARCH FIRMS ARE WARNING ABOUT A POTENTIAL MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR AI DISASTER. TS Lombard and Gartner have released some shocking estimates about what could happen if the AI spending boom collapses. According to TS Lombard's Dario Perkins, a sharp collapse in AI spending could trigger: • S&P 500 crashing 30%. • Tech stocks plunging 40%. • $125–190 BILLION in credit losses. • Around 800,000 jobs lost. • More than $20 TRILLION in stock market value wiped out. And now Gartner has issued an even more disturbing warning about the money being poured into AI infrastructure. According to Gartner: • AI companies are expected to spend nearly $1 TRILLION on infrastructure in 2026 alone. • Another $6 TRILLION could be spent between 2027 and 2030. • AI data center owners would need to generate $8.5 TRILLION in revenue through 2030 to cover spending, financing costs and earn a 12% return. • But Gartner expects no more than $3.6 TRILLION in AI revenue attributable to data centers during that period. That's a nearly $5 TRILLION gap between the revenue needed to justify the investments and the revenue Gartner expects. And the situation gets even worse. Gartner warns that more than $3.5 TRILLION in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030. By 2032, more than $4 TRILLION in asset value could be at risk of write-downs. It also predicts that over 80% of neocloud providers could cease operating independently by 2030. The biggest problem is that these companies are spending enormous amounts of money on GPUs and data centers that could become outdated before they generate enough revenue to recover their costs. And the stock market is heavily exposed. The Magnificent 7 alone account for roughly 35% of the S&P 500's market value. All seven have significant exposure to AI through their businesses, investments or infrastructure spending. If AI companies start cutting spending, chipmakers, cloud providers and data center operators could all take a massive hit. With AI-related debt potentially reaching $2.9 TRILLION by 2027, the damage could spread to banks and other lenders as well. This is no longer just about whether AI companies are overvalued. The bigger risk is that trillions of dollars are being invested in infrastructure that may never generate enough profit to justify its cost. And if the AI spending boom suddenly reverses, the damage could spread far beyond technology stocks. A $20 trillion market crash is a scenario, not a certainty, but the amount of money at risk is becoming impossible to ignore.

Today’s Treasury rally may be signaling something far more consequential than a recession still somewhere on the horizon. The economy has already been deteriorating beneath headline statistics, and a recession may well be underway before official data recognize it. If Treasury yields continue falling while corporate credit spreads widen, hiring weakens and investment contracts, it would suggest that existing economic deterioration is spreading into a broader financial and credit contraction.

US consumers owe ~$19T in consumer debt. If AI disintermediates jobs as advertised/feared, every 5% of that ~$19T in consumer debt that defaults is ~40% of the total equity capital of the US banking system (~$2.6T). That’s a problem.

Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”

Absolutely incredible. For the first time since 2013, France's 10Y Government Bond yield has risen above the US 10Y Note Yield. That's +550 basis points since the low seen in 2020. Borrowing costs are skyrocketing in France.